Chester cup Wednesday 040511

Just a quick word on the cup which is a very good race for trends

last year Mamlook ran a cracker to win this but some interesting trends that you should consider

9 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (exception had won over 1M 6F, had only 1 run over 2M+)

7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 of 3 exceptions placed in class 2 and other had yet to race above class 3)

7 of 10 winners ran won a race worth 10K+ (3 exceptions all placed in a race worth 10K+)

6 of 10 winners had their last run in April

7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) were having their first flat start of the season (2 of 3 exceptions ran at  Fred Darling Newbury meeting)

6 of 10 winners had won or placed at Chester (3 of 4 exceptions having first course start)

Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 8-15-78

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-15-91

9 of 10 winners were aged 4 to 6

Horses aged 7+ have managed just 1 win and 8 places from 47 runners in the past 10 years. There has been no winner aged above 7 in last 20 years.

Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect as it does in the sprints.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Carrying 8-9+

·         Officially rated 90 to 103

·         Won over 2M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher

·         Having first flat start this year

·         Ran over hurdles at Aintree last time

·         Previous won or placed at Chester (or having 1st course start)

·         Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup

My selection this race fits all the trends and ridden by Jimmy Fortune again having got it into 5th last year and trained by Dunlop then is trained by Twiston Davis  today -

That horse is Swingkeel  currently 43/1 betfair  was hampered early last year and had to make ground round horses but didn´t take advantage of his good draw, ending up well back after finding trouble soon after the start. He found further trouble when trying to stay on and should have finished closer.

-

Result - fantastic run from the winner and martins nap Tastahill ran a very gallant race, as for my selection he just never got into it from that draw  but as the third came from next door in 16 there was no excuses that I saw.

1 Overturn 11/2 (draw 1) ( last run in hdles)
2 Tastahil 8/1 (drawn 3
3 Mystery Star 50/1 (drawn 16)
4 Mount Athos 9/1( drawn 19)

Good luck today

 Bob