The Totesport Dante Stakes on today on good ground at York. Three of the last seven winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move to the top of the Derby market.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-4-29 only one horse today
German bred: 0-1-2 (1 Ger bred today)
American bred: 1-1-6 (4 of 6 runners are USA bred)
10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (8 of the 10 sires had won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)
10 of 10 winners were by a horse with a stamina index of 9.1 to 11.6
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a race
7 of 10 winners won last time out
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (last 2 winners both trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F)
5 of 10 winners had run that season (other 5 had won on their last run of the previous season)
6 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (2 of 4 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd & 4th on only starts in group races)
6 of 7 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown or Newmarket
Other Races
Racing Post Trophy winner: 11618 (3-0-5)
Highest placed finisher from RP Trophy (Seville): 116128 (3-1-6) and was drawn on the wrong side of the track!
Trainers
Michael Stoute (3-3-10) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals of this race and any runner from the Stoute yard must be respected.
Aidan O’Brien (3-2-8) has done really well in the last 5 years. He trained the winner in 2006, had no runner in 2007, trained the runner-up in 2008, trained the 1-2 in 2009 and saddled the winner again last year.
Price
No strong trends on prices but there has been no winner priced over 12/1 in the past 10 years and 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.22.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish bred (Yaseer)
· By a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+
· Run this season
· Won a group or listed race or won maiden last time out
· Won over 1M+
· Finished in first 3 in the Racing Post Trophy
· Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
Yasseer is bred from Dansili and on breeding needs further than a mile - as the youngest horse of the three yr old's but you cannot help but be impressed by his staying on third at Newmarket when he met Native Khan 14/04/11.
While the Dante will be tough for him he is in good form - Most of this family get a mile and a half standing on their heads - Look at a horse like Mawatheeq, he is by Danzig from the same family as Yaseer. Danzig is not an influence for stamina yet Mawatheeq won the Cumberland Lodge Stakes (12 furlongs) by a couple of lengths. I think 10 furlongs to a mile and a half will be no problem for this horse. We are a long way from the Derby at this moment but he is in good shape and he is a nice horse from a very good family so let's see what happens. This additional 2flngs is what he's bred for.
Good luck in the race and dont forget there is a Dettori animal today that I will leave you to find for yourself - the clue is simple - handicap and makes Mr Dettori sweat !
Bob
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