The big race on Punchestown’s Ladies Day, Friday 6th May, is the grade 1 Rabobank Champion Hurdle. This race has been won by some of the best Irish NH horses in the past 15 years with the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly (last year) all tasting success in it. This year’s renewal could see the first meeting between last year’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular, and this year’s champion, Hurricane Fly.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Horse aged 5 to 7: 9-8-53.
Horses aged 8+: 1-5-20
Gender
Mares (0-1-5) have yet to win this race and the exceptional Quevega in 2009 became the first female to make the frame from 5 runners in the past decade.
Breeding
No strong trends on breeding.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 hurdles starts (6 last time out)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season or that season
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were course winners Punchestown Festival Form
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Punchestown Festival(the 2 exceptions had finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle & 6th in grade 1 Bumper)
7 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a juvenile or novice hurdle at the Festival (1 exception was brought down 2 out when looking a likely winner of a novice hurdle, other 2 exceptions had not contested a novice hurdle at the Festival)
Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 72222 (0-4-5)
2M Champ Nov Hurdle winner (Blackstairmountain): 31681 (2-0-5)
Other races
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 122 (1-2-3)
Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 1322 (1-1-4)
Previous year's Supreme Novices winner (Menorah): 13 (1-0-2)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): F33232 (0-2-6)
Christmas hurdle winner (Binocular): 62 (0-1-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the December Festival Hurdle, finishing 17243
4 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 1323
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 4F1
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing F22
3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Hurdle, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 153
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 3 thirds from 7 runners since 2001.
Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) has saddled Punjabi to win the race in 2008 and finish runner-up in 2009.
British trained runners (2-2-10) have a fair record, winning 2 of the last 10 and with 4 of their 10 runners making the frame. Both British-trained winners had won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous year’s Festival.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however no clear favourite has won this race in the past 10 years, with Solwhit winning as joint favourite in 2009 being the only successful market leader.
Favourites (1-6-11) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 8.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 to 7
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 50 days
· Run 3 to 6 times over hurdles this season
· Contested a novice hurdle this season or last season
· Won a grade 1 hurdle
· Previous Festival winning form is crucial
· Previously won a novice or juvenile hurdle at the Festival
· Finished in first 3 in Red Mills Trial and/or Champion Hurdle
· Ran in the December Festival Hurdle
· Trained by Willie Mullins
Priced 6/1 or below (favourite has a poor record)
Menorah is only having its second run of the season and was behind Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham both he and Binocular finished behind Thousand Stars His freshness must have a real positive to beat hurricane today and Hobbs has an uncanny knack of getting horses to Punchestown
This is a funny time of year when it comes to predicting the results of the major jumps races, .Dunquib was all the rage last year HURRICANE FLY was viewed by many as the one to beat, and that proved to be the case, but only aftera tremendous battle with Solwhit. - Hurricane Fly has that brilliance about him that relates to the all-time greats
View from the course
Punchestown manager Richie Galway said: "It did rain last night and we got about 2mm. The chase course is now yielding and we're watering the hurdles course with a view to good ground.
Good luck today Guys Nursey Pam Birthday means am giving it a miss as we off to the coast and the Courtyard restaurant at Deal for a slap up meal and a walk along the beach before a joint party with Dawn - life is all balloons and brandy for the Taylor's
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