weekend racing 27/28th may 2012

Am off to sandown for the Whitbread  which i still call it - ground is heavy and not going to be easy to see the horses having anything but a torrid time
today's fancies are few and far between so will give the stats for the big race

The Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread Gold Cup), which takes place at Sandown on Saturday 28th April, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles 5½ furlongs and it signals the end of the British national hunt season. It is always a hugely competitive race 

The Racing calendar has started to become cruel for this race and entries dont look sparkling to tell the truth 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-2-10

7yo: 2-7-23

8yo: 3-7-41

9yo: 1-2-36

10yo: 1-4-39

11yo: 2-5-20

12yo+: 0-1-9

Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74

Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104

Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8 from less than 42% of the total runners.

Over past 7 years French breds have a record of 3-16-42, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-3-77. Fred bred horses have filled 22 of 29 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.3% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 2-7-49

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-10-46

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-6-59

Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-5-24

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-13 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 59% of the total runners.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 14/1 and 25/1

No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a couple of long-priced winners in past 3 years.

Favourites (0-5-12) have a very poor record gaining no wins in the past 10 year. Level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Carrying 10-0 to 10-13

·         Officially rated 132 to 145

·         French bred horses do well

·         Had last run at Cheltenham, in a Grand National or over hurdles

·         Ran at this season’s Cheltenham Festival

·         Run in the past 50 days

·         Run at least 3 times this season

·         Won over 3M 1F+

·         Won a race worth £20,000 or more

·         Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2)

 RESULT A typical edition of this staying handicap, run at a decent clip, and it proved a thorough test.

One horse coped considerably better than the remainder, however, enigmatic top weight TIDAL BAY deciding he fancied a go for a change and fairly bolting up. The soft ground slowed the others down for the 11yo, who tends to get behind in his races, and Daryl Jacob kept him interested throughout. This was a glimmer of what he´s capable of and he could head to Auteuil this summer for a valuable staying hurdle.

The novice Roalco De Farges had run poorly on one previous try right-handed, but he had no troubles this time and ran a career-best, traveling well and simply being outclassed. The Welsh National is likely to be his primary objective next season.

Scottish National eighth Any Currency, wearing a first-time eyeshield, lost his position prior to finishing best of the beaten runners, but never got close enough to threaten.

The 12yo Vic Venturi, who refused in the National, ran really well in a first-time visor, his stamina not quite being up to it.

Aldertune ran to something like his best on ground too soft.

Dover´s Hill likes good ground and his stamina didn´t last, that last comment applying also to Rare Bob. Thelatter travelled well to a point in the first-time visor but continues to fall short in good handicaps.

Racing Thursday 26th April 2012

In all Honesty the racing at Punchestown yesterday should have been abandoned - the whip ban we have here in England would have been a more edifying sight. It was a slog running through water laying on the track - the same decision to to run only hdles and bumpers on ground that is just not suitable for most of the runners.


I am waiting and have been waiting for some while for Whispering Hill who has its 3rd run this season  in the 7.15 bumper- and today's ground is right up this ones street. take a look at its pedigree - Sired from Tiger Hill who won on bottomless ground and  Wells Whisper(Sadlers Wells) is a 7 yr old at the top of its game if you take its run over hdles last time at Leopardstown after a layoff of 630 days the run before simply bungled the last hdle when acceleration was just so good. He ran around Punchestown against Universal Truth on bottomless ground in a 7.5 Grand race (universal truth went on to win its next 2 races and won twice since). Tonight he is against a few decent bred animals including Village Vic who will love the ground - after Snap Tie victory this week you have to respect this trainer and certainly this animal wh ran a cracker on this ground --
I will stay with my each way punt on Wells Whispers who put in a performance 4lbs better than anything else in the race and that was this track - ridden by R McNamara  without a claim does not disssuad me for the 80/20 place win market on Betfair at the current 48s win 9 place.


 At Perth  Gordon Elliot and Maguire are formidable in hdles and St Killian's run should be watched for money in the 4.40 but am taking him on with Sue Bradburnes only runner jet Master in the 2.00

good luck all


 Bob

 

Punchestown 250412

It's on BUT no chases

Racing WILL go-ahead but there will be no chases. The five-race  card (three hurdles and two bumpers) will now begin at the later time of 4.55pm.

The Punchestown Gold Cup 5.30 250412

The Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting , is run over 3M 1F and looks one of the most open renewals in years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-0-1

7yo: 3-1-9

8yo: 4-4-22

9yo: 0-5-21

10yo: 2-3-16

11yo+: 0-2-13

Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-5-32

Horses aged 9 or older: 2-10-50

The last 8 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8.

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-15-62

French bred: 4-0-14

British bred: 1-0-5

German bred: 0-0-1

Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they've represented 75.6% of total runners.

French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 (3 of the last 5) from 17.1% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (2 exceptions finished 11th in Ryanair and 8th in Cheltenham Gold Cup)

6 of 10 winners had won one of their last two starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September (winning 1 to 4)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 9 to 15 times over fences

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)

6 of 10 winners had won one of their last two starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September (winning 1 to 4)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 9 to 15 times over fences

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)

6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start while 2 others put in solid efforts in grade 1 chases here)

Other races

Defending Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Follow The Plan): 4531P (1-0-5)

John Durkan Memorial winner (Rubi Light): 131133U (3-1-7)

Aintree Bowl winner (Follow The Plan): 114 (2-0-3)

Kinloch Brae winner (Apt Approach): 2371 (1-1-4)

Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's Fort Leney Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 351 (1-0-3)

Irish Hennessy winner (Quel Esprit): 3228P (0-2-5)

Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F343 (0-1-4)

Red Mills Chase winner (Rubi Light): 457U (0-0-4)

Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th from Cheltenham Gold Cup: 215514P (2-1-7)

7 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 0P41183, though last 3 did not

5 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 13115

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 732

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl last time, finishing 113

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 42

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine.com Champion Chase, finishing 32

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 273

3 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 217

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1

British based trainers (3-1-20) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 1 place from 18 runners (7 of those 18 were sent off shorter than 5/1 and all 7 were unplaced including the last 2 favourites).

Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

There have been shocks in past 2 years with the winners going off 14/1 & 20/1 while the previous 8 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.

Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.93.

The headwind and deep ground means to me that you need a horse that can do this distance plus aged 7/8 and Quantativeeasing fills that profile exactly has had only three runs since september and won the class and ground including punchestown hdle on soft ground will strip fitter for its run at the chelt meeting when he ran after 94 day layoff under Mccoy and went off the 11/2 favvy

 good luck all

 Bob

Punchestown Bumper 25th April 12

The grade 1  Champion INH Flat Race takes place on today Punchestown Festival at 6.05

currently the ground is heavy with strong head winds - past trends have not had these conditions

Breeding

Irish bred: 9-16-121

French bred: 1-1-8

NZ bred: 0-1-1

USA bred: 0-1-3

GB bred: 0-1-11

German bred: 0-0-2

7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (2 of 3 exceptions sired by a stallion that was placed in either the French Derby or English 2000 Guineas, other was sired by a Sadler's Wells stallion who ran just twice)

8 of 10 winners sired by a stallion that won or placed in a European Classic

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions ran in Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers last time)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August

10 fo 10 winners had won 1 to 3 bumpers

10 of 10 winners won a bumper with 10 or more runners

6 of 10 winners had won a bumper by 6+ lengths (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in Champion Bumper)

6 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 or 2 bumper

2 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (other 8 having first run here)

9 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track

8 of 8 Irish-trained winners won a bumper at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Limerick or Navan

Other Races

Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 4211 (2-1-4)

Kevin McManus Bookmaker bumper winner (Summer Star): 0412 (1-1-4) (Filly)

N Carberry Meath Sportsperson Of Year Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 81 (1-0-2)

Kevin Frost Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Mozoltov): 66 (0-0-2)

Dark Horse Cafe At Down Royal INH Flat Race winner (Fickle Fortune): 68 (0-0-2) (Filly)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion bumper, finishing 64110

2 of 10 winners ran in the Future Champions Bumper, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in William & Gladys Bourke Bumper, finishing 12

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners were positioned in the first 7 at the halfway point

This is not a race you want to be too far forward or too far back. The winner has generally been tracking the leaders or settled in midfield. No horse has managed to make all in this race.

There is value in laying the early leader it makes it even more reasonable today with this headwind

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No very strong trends on prices though the longest priced winner since 2002 has been 14/1 and 6 of last 7 winners went off 8/1 or shorter.

Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.35.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on flat (ideally placed in a classic)

·         Run 2 to 5 times since August

·         Finish 1st or 2nd last time (or ran at Aintree/Cheltenham)

·         Won 1 to 3 bumpers

·         Won a bumper with 10+ runners

·         Won a bumper by 6 lengths or more

·         Contested a grade 1 or 2

·         Won bumper at Limerick, Fairyhouse Punchestown or Navan

·         Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Champion Bumper

·         Finished in first 2 in Future Champions and/or William & Gladys Bourke Bumper

·         Trained by Noel Mead, Willie Mullins or Philip Fenton

·         Priced 10/1 or shorter

 This is a terrific line up and the stand out pedigree must be New Years Eve (Furguson) Motivator sired and dam Midnight Angel - progeny handle deep ground  ran in the cheltenham bumper behind the winner Champagne Fever and is 2lbs better in with that one today 

Sunday 22nd - longshot Wincanton

Campbell Gillies  comes all the way down to Wincanton from Scotland for one ride - take the hint  he is riding the filly against the boys in the 4.10 Dundrum Dancer for Alex Hales (trains at Northants) and on the exchanges is given no chance at current 20s - am on it at better than half those stakes for the place market alone. but am also holding some juicy tickets for the win
ok why apart from the above why do i fancy it as todays longshot? its her second run over hdles -ran so well at newton Abbot first try (552  days since its last run on the flat) where it achieved marks of 72 (which is better than the majority of this field and only bettered by Enroller in fact ) that to my mind means it can achieve much more with the last race under its belt - it hurdled well and even took up the running at what was a key point in the race only failing for lack of race fitness and not given a hard time when its chance was gone --(ok that was against mares and left handed) but this lot are not a lot of cop and she is from Refuse To Bend who is a fast ground action sire - good good to firm forecast ground.
So never tried anything further than a mile on the flat but related to Tayarat through the mare Sincere and Tayarat  has won the distance and further on this ground right handed leading all the way -  and also won within this days timescale -- will do for me as the longshot of the day. She should, if running the same race but failing the distance go very short in running to make money BTL
 Good Luck all

 Bob

Scottish national result - copy and paste 210412

keep this for next years Scottish National

Scottish national Meeting 210412

Wow Its gonna be so hard to pick the winner this year and have to say its going to have to stay with the trends (see post)
Portrait king has done us some favors this year and is my selection along with Ikorrado road 
the longest priced outsider's with chances are Arouras Encore and Etxalar  I don't think the market will shorten on any of these  




 of the rest - 2.00 Newbury love the ground and a big run from Bridge of Gold
2.35 Newbury  Best Terms form is way above these, Fillionaire is bred for this ground and worthy of a look
2.50 Ayr Cannot see past Charm School
3.45 Newbury Emilio largo if there is any Money at all
4.00 Ayr Arctic Court


Good Luck today Guys


 Bob

Today's selections -Friday 20th April

Again am attracted to the great form of Hannon yard and 2.40 brings back Usain Colt who went so well on its second run at the track for a very convincing win over 6.5flngs only getting its act together 1 flng out and then fled to the line doing best at the end of the race - today has one of the plumb draws very much a big animal from Royal Applause bred for the ground and further. Yard in fine form and not worried about the days since run at all
4.00 Ayr and the horse's that attracts are Gansey who loves the track and ground has it all to do to beat Torpichen who beat him before (both behind Auroras Encore) makes this a very attractive forecast bet -- the market will be distorted because of the very good record that Ferdy Murphy horses have here for this meeting and his animals will be backed but this is not their race (even though Ferdy has targeted it in the past)
 Watch out for Campbell Gillies who has some really nice rides and I have a feeling the best of them may be the Ambrose Princess chances in the 5.05  3mile chase - was going so well at Southwell last time chase  when fell and has had two smashing runs on the flat since - its a long way from Home for Scudamore yard

 Good Luck today guys

 Bob

Coral Scottish Grand National 2012

A Very good day for the satchel yesterday - lets hope the trends and profiles can bag us some decent priced winners today 

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr tomorrow Saturday 21st April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. The shape of the race will very much depend on whether Junior, who fell early in the Aintree Grand National, lines up in this. Typically horses that ran in the Aintree showcase struggle if going for this after.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-9

7yo: 0-9-35

8yo: 4-7-60

9yo: 2-4-44

10yo: 3-4-48

11yo+: 1-4-41

Horses aged 8 to 10 have won 9 of 10 from approximately 64% of total runners.

In 2009 Hello Bud became the first horse aged over 10 to win the race since 1996. Horses aged 11+ have only made the frame 5 times from 41 runners in the past 10 years.

Breeding  No strong trends on breeding.

Weight 

8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, they represented almost 66% of total runners.

The only 2 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were both Irish bred chasers aged 10+ who had posted a career high RPR when winning their previous start.

Top Weight: 751P0P2PP6 (1-1-10) Both top weights to make the frame had previously finished in first 5 in the race.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-11-100

Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners, the other 4 all fell or unseated.

Official Ratings  8 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower The 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (3 won)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days

7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (3 exceptions placed in chase worth 45K+)

9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 to 4 chase but no higher (exception won a the grade 2 Future Champions Novice Chase at this meeting 3 years previous)

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)

8 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (2 exceptions ran in a novice chase at that season's Cheltenham Festival)

6 of 10 winners (last 5) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers

9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 16 handicap chases (exception making handicap debut)

4 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (4 others were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had first career run in a bumper or hurdles race

Aintree Festival

In the last 10 years, there have been 28 horses who ran in the Aintree Grand National and then ran in this, none have won and only 1 made the frame

2 of 10 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, however on both occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 642 (0-2-3)

Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 666504022 (0-3-9)

Grimthorpe chase winner (Ikorodu Road): U133 (1-2-4)

32Red Casino Beginners' Chase winner (Quentin Collonges): 1 (1-0-1)

Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): 2P (0-1-2)

Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Junior): P (0-0-1)

Eider Chase winner (Portrait King): P6 (0-0-2)

Raceodds Handicap Chase winner (Mostly Bob): PPP (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners had run in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 37

2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in the Grimthorpe H'cap Chase last time, finishing 16

3 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, (2 pulled up in a handicap chase, other 2nd in 4M Novice Chase)

Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners raced prominently or led

In recent years those horses that have gone from the front have done best in this race as 4 of the last 5 winners led from before halfway.

Price

8 of 10 winners went off 12/1 or bigger

This race has thrown up plenty of shocks recently with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at 18/1 or bigger, including a 66/1 shot winning in 2008.

Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 10

·         Carrying 10-6 or less

·         Officially rated 143 or lower

·         Run 3 to 6 times this season

·         Finished in the first 6 last time & posted their highest RPR

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 2 to 4 chase (but no higher)

·         Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)

·         Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)

·         Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)

·         Had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race

·         Bypassed 2012 Aintree Festival

·         Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

·         Ran in the Grimthorpe or Somerset National last time

·         Trained in Great Britain (ideally by A Parker, P Hobbs or T Vaughan)

·         Likes to lead or race prominently

·         Priced 12/1 or above

Well the going is currently good good to soft in places and too many hold their ground - will publish the race page tomorrow morning or late tonight if the forecast is likley to remain constant

 Bob