8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 7/1
Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 has been the only winner not to come from the first 5 in the betting in past 10 years.
Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
So Just How good is Flemenstar to win today? well its form on good ground is not great but trainer is confident he will act on it came second on its first chase to Bog Worrier and has done nothing but improve - Rathlin is a very exciting horse that swings off the bridle over hdles on good ground is a course winner over fences and distance has not been challenged - worry is the reported problem before taking on Flemenstar last time - of the others False Economy has always had this race as its target won a decent chase and loves this ground - its hard to say just how good it is or if its had enough experience to beat the two above but USA bred animal who is fresher than the top two and Geraghty rides Call The Police was second in the Dr. PJ Moriarty Novice Chase (First Installment was the winner ) and Ruby Walsh gets the ride.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
· Finished in first 3 on their chasing debut
· Won 1 of their last 2 completed chase starts
· Won 1 to 4 times over fences
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
· Won a NH race worth 19K+
· Won or placed in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)
· Had first ever run in a bumper, pt to pt or hurdles race
· Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase
· Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle and/or Dr. PJ Moriarty Novice Chase
· Trained by Noel Meade
· Priced between 7/2 and 7/1
I am going to side with Rathlin to win this
Bob
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