The John Smith’s Topham Chase It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences.
Trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-15
6yo: 0-2-15
7yo: 1-2-31
8yo: 1-6-59
9yo: 3-8-63
10yo: 4-7-67
11yo+: 0-4-49
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-11-110
Horses aged 9 or 10: 7-15-130
Horses aged 11 or older: 0-4-49
In past 5 years horses aged 9 or 10 have won 4 of 5 & filled 13 of the 20 places
Since 1983 none of the 91 runners aged 11+ have managed to win this race.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-18-144
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-12-145
8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-5 or less
Top Weights: 03F00BF002F (0-2-11).
The only two top weights to make the frame have been Exit Swinger (2003) who had previously been placed in 3 graded chases & was runner-up in the Grand Annual and Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in Kim Muir)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase that season
9 of 10 winners were 3rd, 4th or 5th season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate)
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+
8 of 10 (last 7) had contested a graded chase
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
4 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over hurdles that season
Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race
It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 29 of the last 32 winners were in the vanguard from halfway.
Trainers
Peter Bowen (3-2-11) has saddled Always Waining to win the last 2 renewals and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-12) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-14) have all saddled the winner in the past 10 years, though each has been heavily represented.
Irish trained runners (2-10-60) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings though much of that is down to Willie Mullins (1-5-8) who has seen 7 of his 8 runners make the first 5. Charlie Swan (0-2-6) has seen 5 of his 6 runners make the first 7 (other unseated).
Price
No strong trends on the prices.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 10 or younger (especially 9 or 10yos)
· Carrying 10-5 or less
· Officially rated 128 to 141
· Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap
· Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or Byrne Plate
· Ran in past 35 days
· Run 4 to 8 times since August and won no more than once
· Previously won 3 to 5 times over fences
· Run in 10 or more handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
· Third, fourth or fifth season chaser
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won at a left-handed track
· Has contested a graded chase
· Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4)
· Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase in November 2011
· Finished in first 4 in 2011 Topham Chase
· Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate
· Tends to race prominently
· Trained by Peter Bowen, Willie Mullins or Charlie Swan
Triangular was a motionless when winning last time at newbury it had wings 2m6f favvy took it very easy dotted up with the first time T tie spectacular jumping had it won miles out
The horse that fits the profile really well is Fabalu running off 10-00 is a front runner who in the main jumps really well - his Ascot run last time showed him jumping to the left and that cost him first place all ground seems to come to him and his best figure ever was last time when I made his performance 139 - over 3miles leading or disputing only headed in the last part of the race. Running off 127 today he could well be 12lbs well in
Aimigale for Sue Smith is about 8lbs well in and though a mare is a bigun and a real front running stayer
Keep your eye on the one for the future Wake Board who though only 7 and out of the handicap is a very decent animal
Bob
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