John Smith’s Foxhunters 3.40 Aintree

The John Smith’s Foxhunters  is restricted to amateur riders. In recent years the majority of the winners of this had bypassed the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase.

 We will know the ground is going to be soft but how soft is the question ?

 past 10 runnings:

9 of 10 winners were aged 9 to 11, though they have accounted for almost 62.6% of total runners.

Horses aged 8 or younger or 13+ have gained no wins and just 4 places from 54 runners.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 4-8-141

French Bred: 3-7-45

British Bred: 3-5-63

Other: 0-0-5

No very strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred, though French bred horses have done best proportional to their representatives.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs

9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences under rules (exception Katarino had not run over fences that season but won 2 point to points)

9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)

8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Fontwell or Sedgefield

Cheltenham Festival

Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: U6U (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing 3FU

You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.

Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

Other Races

Previous year's winner (): 251U2U7 (1-2-7)

Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Unowatimeen): 2U3U11 (2-2-6) Had a really hard race and finished walking over the line knackered

Lambourn Open Day 6th April Hunter Chase winner (Offshore Account): 1F (1-0-2)

Clonmel Festival Week Maiden Hunters Chase winner (Boxer Georg): 3 (0-1-1) ran at cheltenham hunter prominent runner who will appreciate the ground

Ubique Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 3 (0-1-1)

Queen Mother Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 44 (0-0-2)

pointtopoint.co.uk Hunters' Chase winner (The Polomoche):  5U (0-0-2)

Magnus-Allcroft Memorial Trophy Hunter Chase winner (Fresh Air And Fun): 5F0 (0-0-3)

Betfred "Will They, Won't They" Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Island Life): F6U (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitelaw Challenge Cup, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race

Only Katarino in 2005 won after being held up. Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

Trainers

Robert Waley-Cohen (2-1-4) trained Katarino to gain 2 wins and a 2nd.

Paul Nicholls (1-1-11) has seen 7 of his 11 runners complete the course and 6 of those 7 finished in the first 5.

Dr Richard Newland (1-0-2) is the only other trainer represented that has won the race since 2002.

Willie Mullins (0-1-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd last year while Tracey Bailey trained Offshore Account to finish 3rd, both horses are entered again this year.

Irish trained runners (0-5-45) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 45 runners. They have been responsible for 5 favourites in that time.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1

In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.

Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.67. 5 of the last 10 beaten favourites were trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 9 to 11

·         Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days

·         Won on 1 of last 2 starts

·         Won 2 or more chases under rules

·         Won over 2M 4F+

·         Won a class 3 or better chase

·         Won 1 or 2 chases this season

·         Run in 4 or fewer hunter chase (winning no more than 1)

·         Won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Sedgefield or Fontwell

·         Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival or didn’t complete in Christies Foxhunters

·         Finished in first 3 in Whitelaw Challenge Cup or Walrus Hunter Chase

·         Tends to race prominently

·         Trained in Great Britain

·         Priced between 3/1 and 8/1


This is a lovely hunter chase and I really do like the animals that have won from the front this distance and provisional selection is Silver Adonis who loves to front run loves the track and has a touch of class and i have to have two in the race so will include Unowatimeen who has had time to get over that hard race