The Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting , is run over 3M 1F and looks one of the most open renewals in years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-1
7yo: 3-1-9
8yo: 4-4-22
9yo: 0-5-21
10yo: 2-3-16
11yo+: 0-2-13
Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-5-32
Horses aged 9 or older: 2-10-50
The last 8 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8.
Breeding
Irish bred: 5-15-62
French bred: 4-0-14
British bred: 1-0-5
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they've represented 75.6% of total runners.
French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 (3 of the last 5) from 17.1% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (2 exceptions finished 11th in Ryanair and 8th in Cheltenham Gold Cup)
6 of 10 winners had won one of their last two starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September (winning 1 to 4)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 9 to 15 times over fences
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners had won one of their last two starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September (winning 1 to 4)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 9 to 15 times over fences
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start while 2 others put in solid efforts in grade 1 chases here)
Other races
Defending Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Follow The Plan): 4531P (1-0-5)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Rubi Light): 131133U (3-1-7)
Aintree Bowl winner (Follow The Plan): 114 (2-0-3)
Kinloch Brae winner (Apt Approach): 2371 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Fort Leney Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 351 (1-0-3)
Irish Hennessy winner (Quel Esprit): 3228P (0-2-5)
Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F343 (0-1-4)
Red Mills Chase winner (Rubi Light): 457U (0-0-4)
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th from Cheltenham Gold Cup: 215514P (2-1-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 0P41183, though last 3 did not
5 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 13115
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 732
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl last time, finishing 113
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine.com Champion Chase, finishing 32
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 273
3 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 217
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1
British based trainers (3-1-20) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 1 place from 18 runners (7 of those 18 were sent off shorter than 5/1 and all 7 were unplaced including the last 2 favourites).
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
There have been shocks in past 2 years with the winners going off 14/1 & 20/1 while the previous 8 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.93.
The headwind and deep ground means to me that you need a horse that can do this distance plus aged 7/8 and Quantativeeasing fills that profile exactly has had only three runs since september and won the class and ground including punchestown hdle on soft ground will strip fitter for its run at the chelt meeting when he ran after 94 day layoff under Mccoy and went off the 11/2 favvy
good luck all
Bob
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