Melling Chase 3.05 Aintree 130412

The grade 1 Melling Chase has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade, including Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run and Master Minded. Run over 2M 4F, it gives the main protagonists from the Champion Chase and Ryanair a chance to meet.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 0-1-5

7yo: 1-2-7

8yo: 2-5-24

9yo: 4-3-20

10yo: 2-2-15

11yo+: 1-1-8

Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-9-38

Horses aged 9+: 7-6-43     

All 3 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. All 7 winners aged 9 or older were Irish bred.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 7-7-35

French Bred: 3-6-31

German Bred: 0-1-2

British Bred: 0-1-12

American Bred 0-0-1

All 10 winners were either Irish or French bred.

8 of 9 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or younger

13 of 14 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or older

British bred runners gained no wins and just 1 place from 12 runners.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter

Only once in the past 10 runnings has the winner come from outside top 4 in the betting.

Favourites (5-3-12) have won 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.24.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish bred aged 9+ or French bred aged 5 to 8

·         Had at least 15 career chase starts (won at least 5)

·         Run 4 to 7 times this season

·         Ran in this season’s Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase

·         Won over 2M 4F+ (or a previous Champion Chase winner)

·         Won a grade 1 chase this season

·         Ran in the King George this season

·         Finished in first 2 in Tingle Creek and/or Ascot Chase

·         Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in John Durkan, Fortria and/or Kinloch Brae

·         Previously finished in first 3 in a race at the Aintree Festival

·         Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill or in Ireland

·         Priced 8/1 or shorter

its a shocker this year with nichols fielding two of the eight runners but I cannot see past Finnians Rainbow to win this - If Pure Faith can show Bowen's yard is back it has decent form this track and ground against some really tired hacks for the grade and just for fun am putting it in the forecast with Finnians 

 Bob