Punchestown Bumper 25th April 12

The grade 1  Champion INH Flat Race takes place on today Punchestown Festival at 6.05

currently the ground is heavy with strong head winds - past trends have not had these conditions

Breeding

Irish bred: 9-16-121

French bred: 1-1-8

NZ bred: 0-1-1

USA bred: 0-1-3

GB bred: 0-1-11

German bred: 0-0-2

7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (2 of 3 exceptions sired by a stallion that was placed in either the French Derby or English 2000 Guineas, other was sired by a Sadler's Wells stallion who ran just twice)

8 of 10 winners sired by a stallion that won or placed in a European Classic

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions ran in Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers last time)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August

10 fo 10 winners had won 1 to 3 bumpers

10 of 10 winners won a bumper with 10 or more runners

6 of 10 winners had won a bumper by 6+ lengths (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in Champion Bumper)

6 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 or 2 bumper

2 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (other 8 having first run here)

9 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track

8 of 8 Irish-trained winners won a bumper at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Limerick or Navan

Other Races

Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 4211 (2-1-4)

Kevin McManus Bookmaker bumper winner (Summer Star): 0412 (1-1-4) (Filly)

N Carberry Meath Sportsperson Of Year Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 81 (1-0-2)

Kevin Frost Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Mozoltov): 66 (0-0-2)

Dark Horse Cafe At Down Royal INH Flat Race winner (Fickle Fortune): 68 (0-0-2) (Filly)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion bumper, finishing 64110

2 of 10 winners ran in the Future Champions Bumper, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in William & Gladys Bourke Bumper, finishing 12

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners were positioned in the first 7 at the halfway point

This is not a race you want to be too far forward or too far back. The winner has generally been tracking the leaders or settled in midfield. No horse has managed to make all in this race.

There is value in laying the early leader it makes it even more reasonable today with this headwind

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No very strong trends on prices though the longest priced winner since 2002 has been 14/1 and 6 of last 7 winners went off 8/1 or shorter.

Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.35.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on flat (ideally placed in a classic)

·         Run 2 to 5 times since August

·         Finish 1st or 2nd last time (or ran at Aintree/Cheltenham)

·         Won 1 to 3 bumpers

·         Won a bumper with 10+ runners

·         Won a bumper by 6 lengths or more

·         Contested a grade 1 or 2

·         Won bumper at Limerick, Fairyhouse Punchestown or Navan

·         Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Champion Bumper

·         Finished in first 2 in Future Champions and/or William & Gladys Bourke Bumper

·         Trained by Noel Mead, Willie Mullins or Philip Fenton

·         Priced 10/1 or shorter

 This is a terrific line up and the stand out pedigree must be New Years Eve (Furguson) Motivator sired and dam Midnight Angel - progeny handle deep ground  ran in the cheltenham bumper behind the winner Champagne Fever and is 2lbs better in with that one today