Irish Grand National 090412 4.50 Fairyhouse 3m5f good to soft

The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National  at Fairyhouse today (always takes place on Easter Monday, )


8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 79.1% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 11.2% of the total runners.

It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of last 8 winners going off at between 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (0-3-12) have gained no wins and just 3 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Irish or French bred
• Aged 6 to 9 Last year Organisedconfusion was the first 6 yr old to win since since Rhyme ´N Reason in 1985 and the trend last year was for horses to have a prep race over hdles  was rated 132 had never won on good ground ridden by Nina Carberry carried 9-13 12/1 NOTE the first horse home carrying more than 10-09 finished 11th!
• Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
• Officially rated 130 to 140
• Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
• Won over 3M+
• Run at least twice this season ; run in the past 50 days
• Won a chase at right-handed track (ideally Fairyhouse, Gowran or Punchestown)
• Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
• Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
• Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
• Ran in this season’s Paddy Power and/or Thyester Chase
• Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
• Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
• Finished in first 5 in 2011 or 2012 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
• Trained in Great Britain or
• Trained by D T Hughes, A Moore or M Hourigan

Cross Appeal won the Paddy Power 92K (last race) with conviction from some of today's entries is up 10lbs for that run but I made it at least a pound more he achieved that day - is the perfect profile horse for the race 

Of those who finished behind him Groody Hill Impressed the most as he was inconvenienced by going left handed - Mccoy stays on board for today and is not penalized for that run

More Impressive though was the attempt by Four Commanders (6yr old) in the cheltenham 4miler where Allee Guarde (ahead of it in the betting fell)

Alfie Sherring is a massive price for Jonjo - impressed on the good ground at cheltenham - but Mccoy could have had that mount

whats not to love about Paddy Pub ? its two recent wins have been impressive at the end of the race is a genuine left or right handed track animal is up 6lbs for its win last time and its hdles before that  - Managan does not get the ride But Doyle has ridden it to win and still is a pound well in

Out Now was second to Seabass who is a very very good horse indeed and would have been closer to Seabass but for a hard hit of the 4th from home - a swinging bridle horse who will improve stepped up in distance and with managan taking this ride instead of paddy Pub makes me really attracted to it it ran to 134 that day and gets in today at has won right handed on a sharp track and todays easier bends will help it - my main bet in the race

 So the blues are my selections for the race - good luck whatever you fancy hope you enjoyed the read up 

Bob