GRAND NATIONAL 2012 TRENDS

Starting with the obvious, all of the last fifteen winners had won over at least three miles. .

Seven of the last eight winners had already won over 3m2f or more.

Given that we’ll need a horse to jump thirty fences to win, it’s no surprise that those horses who fell, unseated or were brought down twice or less have had a monopoly on the race for the same fifteen year period.

Those with more than four non-completions of any description in chases (such as pulled up, etc) have also failed to register a win.

All of the last fifteen winners had fallen, unseated or been brought down twice or less.

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+)

9 of 10 (last 9) had won a chase worth 29K+

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases

French bred’s have an awful win record in the race, mainly because they are bred for shorter distances. Mon Mome was the first Gallic galloper to grab a Grand National for exactly one hundred years back in 2009. And he had won a Class 1 event over 3m2f.

Ignore French-bred’s unless they’ve won a Class 1 event at 3m2f+.Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 56.9% of the total runners.

Breeding Our Vic has sired 16 National runners in 4 renewals in past 10 years, with a record of 2-3-16.

The last twelve winners had at least ten chase starts under their belts. Eight of those twelve had between ten and fourteen chase starts to their name.

Even if we do end up with a less than full Grand National field this year, proven ability to win in a big field is a must. All of the last nine winners had won in a field of at least 14 runners.

Twelve of the last fifteen winners were aged nine or ten. All were aged eight to twelve.

The last two winners had failed to win in Graded company (2010 winner Don’t Push It was second in a Cheltenham Grade 3 event, and 2011 winner Ballabriggs won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival).

A win in Graded company/strong Cheltenham form, either in Graded and/or Festival company.

Fourteen of the last fifteen winners were rated 138 or higher. However, since the introduction of discretionary handicapping (where the BHA handicapper can allot more or less weight based on various factors), the last three winners were all rated at least 148.

I believe this is an important emerging trend, and that those at the foot of the weights are now unlikely to be good enough to beat their classier – and higher rated – rivals.

Look to horses rated 145 or higher.

Nine of the last twelve, and eight of the last nine Grand National winners had had at least one hurdles run that season. Ballabriggs was the latest to employ this tactic, running – and winning – twice in novice hurdle company before the weights were announced. 

Look for horses who have raced over hurdles this season.

Ten of the last twelve  Grand National winners had already had place finish in one of the English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Kerry Nationals.

Mark up National-winning form from one of the major variants.

In recent years with the weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better with the 14 of 16 places in the past 4 years being filled by horses carrying 10-11 or more.

8 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of between 10-5 and 11-0 on publication of National weights.

10 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Top Weight: F0FP290UF3 (0-2-10)

 Course form

Previous Year's winner (Ballabriggs): 64026203 (0-4-8)

Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 92PPPFUP (0-1-8)

Previous season's Becher Chase winner (Hello Bud): 7CF2B (0-1-5)

Becher Chase winner two seasons ago (Vic Venturi): 131P (2-1-4)

Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 25F (0-1-3)

Grand Sefton Chase winner (Stewarts House): 5 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences

2 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, both in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous

4 of 10 winners had run in previous season's Grand National, finishing 3FF0

3 of 10 winners had run in a Topham Chase, finishing 429

7 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception didn’t race the previous season

 Other Nationals

Previous season's Irish National winner (Organisedconfusion): FU1FFFP0 (1-0-8)

Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): UP (0-0-2)

Previous season's Welsh National winner (Synchronised): 20F (0-1-3)

Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 1P (1-0-2)

Previous season's Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 4 (0-1-1)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in the Irish, Welsh, or Aintree Grand Nationals

5 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 331P2

2 of 10 winners had run in an Irish National, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners had run in a Scottish National, finishing P9

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 20/1 or below.

There have been 2 big shocks in the past decade: a 33/1 winner in 2007 and a 100/1 winner in 2009.

8 of 10 winners were priced between 25/1 and 40/1 at publication of weights

Favourites (3-5-18) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.

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