an apology

Hi guys am really sorry that have not been posting to the blog - have a family health problem that makes a nonsense of wondering if one horse can run faster than another - will be back posting soon I hope - good luck to you all


 Bob

1.20 Southwell

I am going for a shorter priced one today, Army of Stars who looks well treated.

Edit: I can't pick my nose at the moment!

Stupid me!

I had a bad day at the office Saturday, even more so as I was advised to back Tatenan. I fancy 2 horses in one race today, so just a dutch bet for me in the 2.00 Weth Double Eagle and Mtpockets

Edit: Another bad day! Things need to change and fast

Naps table long shot

Am looking at major improvement from Seren Cwmtudu for the naps table - currently 33/1

 - sister to BreninCwmtduw an absolute stayer - she''s upped to 3miles today and the way she won 

at taunton last time says she follows in her brothers footsteps as a stayer on softish ground the

 first pair finished a mile clear of the rest that day. this is a funny ole race with too many 

front runners to have any hanging about and staying will  be the name of the game so am 

hopeful rather than confident

 good luck in the table - and Martin or Mathew ? when are we going to get at least one selection?

saturday racing - ascot big races

Haven't been posting as have been inflicted with the dreaded lurgy ( thank goodness had the flu Jab!)
Think that the victor chandler will go the way of the favourite Master Minded but you will be able to see what he's travelling like - impressive as hell horse that has only one way of winning and gives it away by his jumping - if he does not sail over the first few then a lay is on the cards - each race i have watched with him he gives away his well being - if he hangs in the air at the third or fourth jump then i will put a small lay in. The same applies to the still "novicy" Crack Away Jack who is returning from a long lay off - this is the dark horse in the race and with the way other animals have had to stop and start their races with the weather this one has simply come along with the Cheltenham festival in mind. reported to have had tendon problems there is no money for him but if there is a market move then will become interested as Lavelle and money down will be enough to say its fit enough   This is nothing like the race it was now its graded and not many upsets - Pipe did the trick here with the 12/1 shot Tamarinbleu in 2008 with a horse reckoned to be 14lbs wrong against Twist Magic - had won the Boyles sport before coming to win this - The form book says Master Minded for sure  and  the vibes are strong but have also taken the place on Gauvain  BTL who has a lot of plus points for today - sure he did nothing of note in the re routed Tingle Creek but on his day and the yard starting to show some form.
3.30 and a cracker of a race where Breedsbreeze is all the rage but the stats say be careful on steaming in - only 1 top weight has won this in 10 years - only 2 favourite's have obliged to boot. lower weights  who finished in the frame last time out  The Sawyer won it last year and though a decent horse this time of year has it all to do today off this weight - others to look at include moores Panjo Bear who ran a cracker against master minded and actually beat home Imsingintheblues around here the up in distance is the worry 2m5f looks a trip too far but his form is solid with the 7lbs claimer Josh Moore  and my fancy is a big run from Soulard who is running on ground softer than he wants - a really decent Ascot animal who loves to front run and therefore because of the ground is the best BTL in the race

Ascot - Saturday

1.50 The Mares Hurdle - Caroles Legacy is in my opinion, the best mares only horse and is pretty good value at around 6/4 in this. She wouldn't really want it too heavy (although she has won on bottomless ground)

2.25 The VC Chase - Master Minded should win this, but at odds on I can't have it. There is little to choose between Somersby and Petit Robin. A couple of pennies on the latter for me just so that I have an interest.

3.30 I am already on the favourite Breedsbreeze. Is well ahead according to my ratings and just over 2/1 was value for me.

3.10 Plump

A rubbish day's racing, however, in the 3.10 Plump I do like Massinis Sunset (available at 5/1 with the traditional bookmakers B.O.G). You could do worse as this goes in the bottomless ground.

Saturday racing

All eyes will be on the belated running of the King George (quite rightly) but I like two in the Handicap Hurdle (3.35), and they are Drill Sergeant and Organisateur ... more to come later

KING GEORGE VI CHASE 150111

This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid (who was 11 years old when he won it for the 4^th time) and win the race for the fifth time. The fact Kauto Star has won the race last 4 renewals does skew the trends slightly. And now –  LETS FACE IT the race has been delayed for the bad weather and horses for this class are trained to the minute for the run - as they have all had another birthday on the first of January they are all a year older than the previous Stats. when you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

 Was NOT impressed with his run at Down Royal in the jwine handicap where Sizing Europe (who is NOT a true 3miler was only beaten on the run in with Kauto being driven out from the last fence)

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 2-3-13 Kauto Star

7yo: 4-7-21 kauto Star

8yo: 1-4-28  Kauto star

9yo: 2-2-16 Kauto star

10yo: 0-3-11

11+: 1-0-10

6 and 7 year olds have the best record in the race with a combined record of 6-10-34.

ignoring the fact they are allegedly a year older only  (read 7 and 8 yr olds for this stat- The Nightinggale - River Side Theatre -  Planet of sound 

aged 8 or older  these include  Nacarat - Forpaddyplaster  Planet of Sound -Madison Du Berlais - Albertas Run (4-10-65). 

When you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (last 9 had won more than 1)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (1 to 4 times that season)

9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases won on their last completed start

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Kauto Star): 54401111 (4-0-8)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1 (1-0-2)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Planet Of Sound): 31 (1-1-2)

Melling Chase winner (Albertas Run): 653 (0-1-3)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Long Run): 3P6 (0-1-3)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Nacarat): 526P (0-1-4) – don’t be put off by this stat as Nacarat won this well despite being a complete right handed animal that runs Kempton better than anywhere else 
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): PP5 (0-0-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 221111

5 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, (Planet of Sound 3^rd) finishing 311U1

3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase,( Kauto Star) finishing 321

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup,(Planet of Sound 1^st) finishing 21

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-1-12) has won the race with Kauto Star for past 4 years. (as of Monday he has four entered) Last year he only entered Kauto Star

Nicky Henderson (0-4-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-4) have each had multiple placed runners in the race in the past 10 years.

Irish-trained runners (3-1-7) have produced 3 winners and a second from 7 runners. ( Forpaddydeplasterer

Price – 7 of 10 favourites have won (including the last 6) and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.

There has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

Conclusion:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: updated because of the jan 1st birthday 

• Aged 7 or 8(Look closely at The Nightingale who takes a lot of stats and beat some really decent animals on his return)
• Won last time out in the past 55 days
• Won over 3M+
• Won a Grade 1 chase (more than one ideally)
• Finished in the first 2 in last year’s renewal
• Finished in the first 3 in the Betfair Chase - Planet of Sound
• Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
• Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

The Nightingale won by 11 lengths in a grade 2 2m4f (nichols has always maintained he can get further - In the end it proved a reasonably simple task for The Nightingale who simply seemed to stay on better than any of his rivals in a race ruined really by the withdrawal at the start of Pandorama. He jumped and travelled well and while it took a little time for him to really warm to his task, he picked up better than anything from the second last and drew clear nicely. It was his seasonal debut and he was entitled to need it, but this probably topped anything he had done previously and one would see him as a leading Ryanair Chase contender on this evidence. He certainly didn´t beat any mugs here.

 Planet Of Sound, from the racing post after its run in the haydock betfair chase on soft ground  " Ended last season with a win in the Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup, his first try at 3m-plus. Good ground is key to the horse, so it was no surprise to see him struggle to quicken out of this tacky surface, but he had earlier impressed with the way he travelled, and did enough to suggest his Punchestown victory wasn´t a fluke.He´ll also head to Kempton for the King George - a course he´s likely to give the winner more of a race at - and he could easily surprise a few there

.

Nacarat running left handed  haydock betfair chase   conceded the early lead to fellow front-runner Ollie Magern before easing back to the front at the entrance to the home straight. He walked through the third-last but kept gallopingto score in decisive style. Reportedly treated for a shoulder problem during the summer, he was clearly fit enough here but his trainer had left a bit to work on, so there could be more to come from him. He will be targeted at the King George again, a race in which he faded into fourth behind Kauto Star last season, and the return to a right-handed track where he goes so well will suit him. Another bold run looks assured, but he cannot keep affording the blunders.(there are great noises coming from the yard)

 Watch the betting I certainly will not be laying Kauto but he has to be as good as he ever was - there is always that day when the champions legs are just not as good as they were in the past - that first day is the time you get the best price on the young pretenders. The Nightingale will be bigger that the 8/1 on offer in running - Planet wants the rain to stay away Nacarat wont mind either way - With Madison de Berlais and Albertas Run taking Kauto on for the lead the odd mistake that Kauto is capable of could be his undoing (just one last point - Mccoy was the last pilot to have the thumbs up and was considered by the owner as not his personal choice because of the way Kauto has to be ridden!

 Good luck all

 Bob

2.40 Hunt

In the Huntingdon 2.40, C&D winner DESPERATE DEX  has won both his
previous Soft ground Chase starts and should go close again at this
level for the Ferdy Murphy yard

Nacarat and the ground is going his way

TOM GEORGE on Tuesday said Nacarat was at the top of his game as he put the finishing touches to his preparation for Saturday's rearranged William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton.

RELATED LINKS

• King George card
• King George betting 
• Free bets 

Nacarat finished 41 lengths behind Kauto Star when fourth in the race last season having been sent off a 25-1 chance but a return win in the Charlie Hall Chase, followed by a fourth behind Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase, means he will figurea lot more prominently in the betting this time round.

The nine-year-old is as short as 9-1 third favourite behind Kauto Star and Long Run and George is looking forward to seeing him take his chance on the weekend.   

He said: "We have been delighted with him. He did his last piece of work this morning and I could not have him any better in my opinion. There are a few days to go, but we could not be happier with him at this stage."

George believes that trying to go with Kauto Star in good to soft ground late on last season may have cost Nacarat the chance of finishing in the frame, and he is hoping that he may be not so testing this time round.(to my mind the ground going softer than this will help Nacarat - Bob)

He told At The Races: "I thought last year with the right pace we could have beaten the rest of them but we paid the price for trying to go with Kauto on the home term when nobody else could on ground which was very testing.

"So we just hope that the ground is not quite so soft this time and we have got to ride the race as it comes."

Paddy Brennan is due to take the ride on Nacarat.

Even the best are suspect !

Johnson faces ban over breaches to welfare

 BY PETER SCARGILL12:59PM 10 JAN 2011 

HOWARD JOHNSON is facing a potentially lengthy ban from racing after the BHA charged him with running a horse that had been "de-nerved" and also administering anabolic steroids to three horses in his care.

Johnson will face a BHA hearing provisionally set for February 10 after admitting running Striking Article in eight races after the horse had undergone a neurectomy, the severing of nervous connection to the lower leg to cause numbness.

The neurectomy, which is banned on welfare grounds as it may cause horses to continue running through pain which they would normally feel, was discovered in a post mortem after Striking Article was put down after being injured in a claiming chase at Musselburgh in February last year.

The BHA has also charged Johnsonwith administering the prohibited steroid Laurabolin to three horses in his care, Whisky Magic, Mintaka Passand Montoya's Son.

All four horses are owned by Johnson's biggest patron Graham Wylie, who has had the likes of triple World Hurdle winner Inglis Drever and Arkle winner Tidal Bay trained by Johnson over jumps and Yorkshire Cup victor Percussionist and Norfolk Stakes winner South Central on the Flat.

Howard Johnson: possible ban

 PICTURE: Martin Lynch 

Johnson has been charged under Rule (C) 22 regarding the "duties and skills" of a trainer for the treatment of Striking Article.

Trainers who fall "below the acceptable standard" could receive a fine of up to £3,000 while a ban of up to a year could be handed to Johnson if the BHA find "neglect and very poor husbandry".

However, if Johnson is found guilty of the most serious category of "wilful neglect" he could be banned for up to ten years.

Johnson could face anything from a fine to a ban of three years for his three runners testing positive to prohibited substances (Rule (C) 55) and the same for breaching Rule (A) 30, acting in a manner prejudical to the integrity, proper conduct and good reputation of British horseracing.

Monet's Garden update

Well out of the punting game with the ground hopeless and prize money that means its for the gambles not the form . (top prize of 4.5 grand?)
 but the update on Monet's Garden is just the ticket on a dull grey morning

NICKY RICHARDS on Tuesday said that the condition of Monet's Garden remained largely unchanged although the popular former chaser was able to leave his box for thefirst time for a while. The 13-year-old has been suffering from a potentially life-threatening infection in a hoof which he contracted after winning at Aintree last October.

Since then he has been retired and over the past few weeks has been having treatment at Oaklands Veterinary Centre in Yarm, Cleveland, where Caroline Blackiston and a team of vets have been trying to eliminate the threat of further infection. 

 Despite having his dosage of painkillers reduced over the weekend, there was more upbeat news on Tuesday as Monet's Garden was able to take some steps outside his box. 

Richards said:  "He is steady and, although there is no general change, the vets were able to lead him out for the first time in a while. Caroline said he was okay so let's hope we don't have any backward steps.

"Come on my old son you are a fighter"

Bob

taunton and towcester monday 10th january

Watch out for rain at Taunton - the report says the wind has become very strong against the horses in the back straight (any animals tongue tied first time may get an edge)
 some potentially good horses in today as they have missed a few weeks they could be entered just for the run

The going is described as good to soft, soft in places. It was dry last night and temperatures reached 7C, but rain is forecast today.

ones to note are those who have had a run and good distance plus in this ground 

towester the tuffest of tracks will get some more rain maybe There is a strong fresh wind blowing across the course and the sun is poking through. As usual stamina is going to be a pre-requisite on the tough Northamptonshire course. The going is soft and is going to be pretty gluey.

again stamina is what your looking for today with track experience 

 Good luck all

 Bob

MCR Hdle - Leopardstown 2.25

A very decent prize for this race and when called the Pierse hdle you could rely on the bottom weights and dark horses - going is described as soft so maybe its back to looking at some of the lower weights that have gone well in this ground - interesting trend is horses with a penalty have not done well over the years and nothing carrying more that 10-11 has won it in yonks and you recall that they can change the mark if top weights withdraw on the day - Psycho got beaten by a 50/1 shot because his weight went up and yet the bottom weight Pennys bill still got in at the minimum 9-09.


This is a complicated race but does throw up some horses that go on to better things  - only one horse is on its handicap debut and that's Call the Police for Mullins with his son riding there have been some decent runs fresh and any money will attract me


Whodoyouthink was as impressive as hell against Dungiub last year and could be anything - this race is usually run breakneck so could get the conditions it wants


As for the pricewise selection it looks pretty solid on the trends Prima Vista is very unexposed and will have to improve again for this massive rise in the weights and actually like Meads other runner under Condon Asigh Gold has beaten  plenty of these and cannot see why it has no money for it
New Phase could be a handicap snip off 11-07 the trends dont hold up for weights at this end of the handicap and the current price will go if fancied today out of the Weld yard. True the top weights dont fare that well but this is an improving horse well ahead of its rating. worry is seems a right handed animal 


Interesting now that have completed the analyser on Prima Vista - have looked at the chances of  Tijuana Dancer who ran a really decent race at the Leopardstown  meeting against Prima and gets in to this race with a far better chance than Prima (was giving 3lbs and today receives 12 lbs for a 4 l beating


 looks very positive with Murphy booked  

Just noticed this !!

Morning all,

I've had connection probs hence no posts. I was just rating some all weather horses when I came across something I obviously missed in December. It concerns a horse, Dubai Hills (who must be a banker bet in the 2.45 Southwell today - doubt will get odds against unfortunately). Anyway, back to the reason for the post, the horse started favourite in a Class 4 over 7 furlongs at this track (Won at 9/4 , 3.86 was the BSP) ... it won by 13 lengths, making all and never headed going clear just over a furlong out, at which point it was available in-running on the exchanges at 7/1 !!!! I missed it so doubt I was punting that day.... came out again , 2nd January, same class, course and distance... won by 8 lengths, never headed, at 4/6 !!! MAXIMUM price available in running that day was 1.76. A hell of a lot of times, in all racing, entering the final furlong or over the last, the obvious winner will be trading at around 1.6 or similar, stick in a back bet in running at 2.00, be sure to have a lay bet ready to go at something like 1.2 (in case of disaster!)... we obviusly want the evens to get matched ... it will LOTS of times .. once matched stick a lay bet in as above ... money for nothing, except, it helps to have the race on so you actually know whats going on!!!

I just looked through Southwell. This looks a day for favourites. Pretty much all short priced so no bets unless matched at ridiculous odds... plan for the day is to sell the favourites at Southwell on the spreads.... good luck all

Edit Bought number of winning favourites at Southwell @ 2.7 (so I need at least three!!)

Another favourite I like today at Southwell is Even Stevens in the 3.20. This is a decentish priced favourite that should confirm the win over Shostsovich (you can get just better than 2/1 on the exchanges at the moment 10.30)

Over at Leopardstown we have the MCR Handicap Hurdle (2.25) where Pricewise has gone for Final Approach - this WAS 14's but backed into around 10's , I priced this up as 15/2 Final Approach, 8/1 Tijuana Dancer , I have the favourite as a 16/1 chance so that's a lay Prima Vista .. I've matched the back bets Final Approach and Tijuana Dancer, but would like Bobs opinion before laying the favourite!!

Bob strikes me as being a day for suprises........you need to look in your notes and find those mudlarks like Megastar!

Just got in and looked quickly at the RP the Boss tells me that the selections for Scoop6 this week are:

1. Maktu
2. Nicto de Beaucham
3. Kyleno Fairy
4. Feindish Flame
5. Bradford Boris / Works Title
6. Zazamix / Mille Chief

I think that there will be lots of interesting resultsand certainly no winners of Scoop6!

Not sure what I willbe wagering on this afternoon and will report back when I have sat and looked at the machine.

The Welsh Grand National Trends and Stats

Please look at the  earlier post if you are a VFB user - my method of getting a short list for the following trends

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Saturday 8^th January 2011- grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina. Cureently the ground is given as soft having been coverd since Christmas  

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-3

6yo: 2-4-15

7yo: 3-6-35 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 8 yr olds)

8 yo: 2-8-42 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 9 yr olds!)

9yo: 3-6-35 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 10 yr olds!)

10yo: 0-3-29 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 11 yr olds!)

11yo+: 0-0-12

10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9 so this year its 8 to10 as there are no 7yr olds running

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 5-10-50, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 5-17-118.

Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past decade and gaining just 3 places from 41 runners.

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-12-92

French bred: 4-11-37

GB bred: 1-5-37

USA bred: 0-0-5

In the last 5 years French Bred’s have done particularly well, winning 4 and filling 13 of 20 places from approximately 30% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Significant trends these

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-13-53

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-15-118

Top weight: 6PFP2PF3P237 (0-4-12)

8 of 11 horses carrying penalties that were racing from inside the handicap finished in the first 4.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 151 to 164: 1-3-16

Horses rated 135 to 150: 4-17-83

Horses rated 121 to 134: 5-8-72

There has been a real shift in the past 4 years on the trend for official ratings.

From 2000 to 2005 all 6 winners were rated below 142 and only 5 of 22 places were filled by horses rated 142+.

From 2006 to 2009 3 of 4 winners were rated 142+ and 10 of 16 placed finishers were rated 142 or higher.

Since 2006: Horses rated 142 or higher: 3-7-32 Horses rated 141 or lower: 1-5-42

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

10 of 10 winners has run either once or twice that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further

10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chase prior to this

9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (exception had not run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)

7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (4 exceptions were having their first course start)

3 of last 4 winners ran in a handicap hurdle on previous outing they include Synchronised today

Other races these are important for giving the animals plus or minus ratings for example dream Alliance last year’s winner  7 have re run in the last decade without winning but have been placed three times

Previous year's winner (Dream Alliance): 32P572U (0-3-7)

Irish Grand National winner (Bluesea Cracker): P (0-0-1)

Blue Square Gold Cup winner (Silver By Nature): 0U (0-0-2)

Midlands National winner (Synchronised): PP (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 484

2 of 10 winners ran in the Toytown Novice Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase, finishing 1F

2 of 10 winners ran in the NH Challenge Cup Chase, finishing 4U

2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National, finishing 35

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National, finishing 60

7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in either the Welsh, Scottish, Irish, Aintree or Midlands Grand Nationals or 4M NH Chase at Cheltenham (2 exceptions fell in one of these races whilst in contention) this statistic is a must check in your VFb

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-5-21) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 6 years.

Alan King (1-3-7) and Venetia Williams (1-3-8) have each saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers in the past decade.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12), Jim Dreaper (1-0-1), Pat Murphy (1-0-3) and Philip Hobbs (1-0-10) have also trained the winner once since 2000.

Lucinda Russell (0-2-3) has seen 2 of her 3 runners in this make the frame.

Irish trained runners (1-2-9) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1 (plenty of leg room there!)

Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.

The favourite (1-5-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Summary:

 You should take a long hard look at the following broad statistics:

• Aged 6 to 9
• French Bred
• Carrying 10-9 or less
• Officially rated 142 or higher
• Finished in the first 4 last time out in the past 50 days
• Had 1 or 2 runs this season
• Course winner (or having first course start)
• Won over at least 3 miles
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
• Won or placed in a graded chase
• Second or third season chasers
• Placed in another Grand National or in Cheltenham's 4M NH Chase
• Priced between 6/1 and 16/1
• Trained by P Nicholls, A King or V Williams

As per previous post have run the analyser and for the soft ground forecast there are 6 qualifiers  but this is not an exclusive list and merely the first run they in current forecast Sp but this will change in the morning as the ground conditions become clearer
Maktu / Dance Island / Watuma Bay / Exmoor Ranger / Imoncloudnine /  Magic Sky


SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE the ground is said to be soft with heavy patches and a dry day forecast 
The favourite Synchronised  ticks a lot of boxes that's for sure and had a run over hdls last time in prep for this is a plus, has good form distance (and distance plus)  and likes the track-ground will not be a problem. Am mindful of the stats for the favourite and the fact that two Midlands winners have been pulled up in this race but  think a saver is in order today (more pluses than minus stats) he can put in the odd stinker of a jump thats for sure.


Exmoor Ranger is my profile horse for the race - was happy as Larry with its performance against Midnight Chase and Presenting Forever   at cheltenham last time is a second season chaser who can travel well either handed tracks and undulations  the problem has to be the ground getting any deeper but is a profile to get the soft ground and distance.


Maktu looks to be my horses for courses pick and is a stats dream with 81% strike rate for 2 runs here on good  and heavy ground over 3miles he was well beaten by Synchronised in heavy but has a massive turn around in the weight was getting 6lbs that day and today gets 14lbs plus a very handy 3lbs (Father/ son trainer /jock combo)
  
 Dance Island is a really good progressive young horse but jumped horribly in heavy ground - may lack the experience but jumps well in soft - could be a bet in running 


 Good luck 


 Bobt
 post race comments well the winner held up the continuing trend for having its last run over hdles and Synchronised jump the last fence like it was going to the first - very impressed with Mr Mccoy today as ever 


1 Synchronised 5/1 
2 Giles Cross 12/1
3 I'moncloudnine 16/1
4 Ballyfitz 8/1