The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Saturday 8th January 2011- grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina. Cureently the ground is given as soft having been coverd since Christmas
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 3-6-35 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 8 yr olds)
8 yo: 2-8-42 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 9 yr olds!)
9yo: 3-6-35 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 10 yr olds!)
10yo: 0-3-29 (as the year has gone so these stats are for 11 yr olds!)
11yo+: 0-0-12
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9 so this year its 8 to10 as there are no 7yr olds running
Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past decade and gaining just 3 places from 41 runners.
Breeding
Irish bred: 5-12-92
French bred: 4-11-37
GB bred: 1-5-37
USA bred: 0-0-5
In the last 5 years French Bred’s have done particularly well, winning 4 and filling 13 of 20 places from approximately 30% of the total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Significant trends these
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-13-53
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-15-118
Top weight: 6PFP2PF3P237 (0-4-12)
8 of 11 horses carrying penalties that were racing from inside the handicap finished in the first 4.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 151 to 164: 1-3-16
Horses rated 135 to 150: 4-17-83
Horses rated 121 to 134: 5-8-72
There has been a real shift in the past 4 years on the trend for official ratings.
From 2000 to 2005 all 6 winners were rated below 142 and only 5 of 22 places were filled by horses rated 142+.
From 2006 to 2009 3 of 4 winners were rated 142+ and 10 of 16 placed finishers were rated 142 or higher.
Since 2006: Horses rated 142 or higher: 3-7-32 Horses rated 141 or lower: 1-5-42
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners has run either once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chase prior to this
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (exception had not run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (4 exceptions were having their first course start)
3 of last 4 winners ran in a handicap hurdle on previous outing they include Synchronised today
Other races these are important for giving the animals plus or minus ratings for example dream Alliance last year’s winner 7 have re run in the last decade without winning but have been placed three times
Previous year's winner (Dream Alliance): 32P572U (0-3-7)
Irish Grand National winner (Bluesea Cracker): P (0-0-1)
Blue Square Gold Cup winner (Silver By Nature): 0U (0-0-2)
Midlands National winner (Synchronised): PP (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 484
2 of 10 winners ran in the Toytown Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in the NH Challenge Cup Chase, finishing 4U
2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National, finishing 60
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in either the Welsh, Scottish, Irish, Aintree or Midlands Grand Nationals or 4M NH Chase at Cheltenham (2 exceptions fell in one of these races whilst in contention) this statistic is a must check in your VFb
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-5-21) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 6 years.
Alan King (1-3-7) and Venetia Williams (1-3-8) have each saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers in the past decade.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12), Jim Dreaper (1-0-1), Pat Murphy (1-0-3) and Philip Hobbs (1-0-10) have also trained the winner once since 2000.
Lucinda Russell (0-2-3) has seen 2 of her 3 runners in this make the frame.
Irish trained runners (1-2-9) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1 (plenty of leg room there!)
Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.
The favourite (1-5-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.
Summary:
You should take a long hard look at the following broad statistics:
- Aged 6 to 9
- French Bred
- Carrying 10-9 or less
- Officially rated 142 or higher
- Finished in the first 4 last time out in the past 50 days
- Had 1 or 2 runs this season
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Won over at least 3 miles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Second or third season chasers
- Placed in another Grand National or in Cheltenham's 4M NH Chase
- Priced between 6/1 and 16/1
- Trained by P Nicholls, A King or V Williams
Maktu / Dance Island / Watuma Bay / Exmoor Ranger / Imoncloudnine / Magic Sky
SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE the ground is said to be soft with heavy patches and a dry day forecast
The favourite Synchronised ticks a lot of boxes that's for sure and had a run over hdls last time in prep for this is a plus, has good form distance (and distance plus) and likes the track-ground will not be a problem. Am mindful of the stats for the favourite and the fact that two Midlands winners have been pulled up in this race but think a saver is in order today (more pluses than minus stats) he can put in the odd stinker of a jump thats for sure.
Exmoor Ranger is my profile horse for the race - was happy as Larry with its performance against Midnight Chase and Presenting Forever at cheltenham last time is a second season chaser who can travel well either handed tracks and undulations the problem has to be the ground getting any deeper but is a profile to get the soft ground and distance.
Maktu looks to be my horses for courses pick and is a stats dream with 81% strike rate for 2 runs here on good and heavy ground over 3miles he was well beaten by Synchronised in heavy but has a massive turn around in the weight was getting 6lbs that day and today gets 14lbs plus a very handy 3lbs (Father/ son trainer /jock combo)
Dance Island is a really good progressive young horse but jumped horribly in heavy ground - may lack the experience but jumps well in soft - could be a bet in running
Good luck
Bobt
post race comments well the winner held up the continuing trend for having its last run over hdles and Synchronised jump the last fence like it was going to the first - very impressed with Mr Mccoy today as ever
1 Synchronised 5/1
2 Giles Cross 12/1
3 I'moncloudnine 16/1
4 Ballyfitz 8/1
2 comments:
have updated the thoughts on the Welsh Grand national - take a look at the 1.10 and Smads Place (progeny of Smadoun)
sandown is heavy heavy on the hdles track and not much better on the chase track so results from there are going to be iffy Magastar is a bit under rated in the market for a horse that travelled so well in heavy ground bumper - and the hill is where it will have the edge
going update from the track chepstow
Conditions check
After changing the going first thing to soft, heavy in places from soft, clerk of the course Keith Ottesen has just returned from walking the course a second time.
He said: "I've walked the course again with a group of people, including a BHA representative and trainer Philip Hobbs, and we're all happy it's soft and just about heavy in places.
"We had 6mm of rain overnight, on top of 10mm yesterda, but the forecast isfor sunny spells today."
There's a moderate north easterly wind, which will be behind the runners in the home straight.
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