KING GEORGE VI CHASE 150111

This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid (who was 11 years old when he won it for the 4^th time) and win the race for the fifth time. The fact Kauto Star has won the race last 4 renewals does skew the trends slightly. And now –  LETS FACE IT the race has been delayed for the bad weather and horses for this class are trained to the minute for the run - as they have all had another birthday on the first of January they are all a year older than the previous Stats. when you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

 Was NOT impressed with his run at Down Royal in the jwine handicap where Sizing Europe (who is NOT a true 3miler was only beaten on the run in with Kauto being driven out from the last fence)

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 2-3-13 Kauto Star

7yo: 4-7-21 kauto Star

8yo: 1-4-28  Kauto star

9yo: 2-2-16 Kauto star

10yo: 0-3-11

11+: 1-0-10

6 and 7 year olds have the best record in the race with a combined record of 6-10-34.

ignoring the fact they are allegedly a year older only  (read 7 and 8 yr olds for this stat- The Nightinggale - River Side Theatre -  Planet of sound 

aged 8 or older  these include  Nacarat - Forpaddyplaster  Planet of Sound -Madison Du Berlais - Albertas Run (4-10-65). 

When you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (last 9 had won more than 1)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (1 to 4 times that season)

9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases won on their last completed start

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Kauto Star): 54401111 (4-0-8)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1 (1-0-2)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Planet Of Sound): 31 (1-1-2)

Melling Chase winner (Albertas Run): 653 (0-1-3)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Long Run): 3P6 (0-1-3)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Nacarat): 526P (0-1-4) – don’t be put off by this stat as Nacarat won this well despite being a complete right handed animal that runs Kempton better than anywhere else 
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): PP5 (0-0-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 221111

5 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, (Planet of Sound 3^rd) finishing 311U1

3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase,( Kauto Star) finishing 321

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup,(Planet of Sound 1^st) finishing 21

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-1-12) has won the race with Kauto Star for past 4 years. (as of Monday he has four entered) Last year he only entered Kauto Star

Nicky Henderson (0-4-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-4) have each had multiple placed runners in the race in the past 10 years.

Irish-trained runners (3-1-7) have produced 3 winners and a second from 7 runners. ( Forpaddydeplasterer

Price – 7 of 10 favourites have won (including the last 6) and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.

There has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

Conclusion:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: updated because of the jan 1st birthday 

• Aged 7 or 8(Look closely at The Nightingale who takes a lot of stats and beat some really decent animals on his return)
• Won last time out in the past 55 days
• Won over 3M+
• Won a Grade 1 chase (more than one ideally)
• Finished in the first 2 in last year’s renewal
• Finished in the first 3 in the Betfair Chase - Planet of Sound
• Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
• Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

The Nightingale won by 11 lengths in a grade 2 2m4f (nichols has always maintained he can get further - In the end it proved a reasonably simple task for The Nightingale who simply seemed to stay on better than any of his rivals in a race ruined really by the withdrawal at the start of Pandorama. He jumped and travelled well and while it took a little time for him to really warm to his task, he picked up better than anything from the second last and drew clear nicely. It was his seasonal debut and he was entitled to need it, but this probably topped anything he had done previously and one would see him as a leading Ryanair Chase contender on this evidence. He certainly didn´t beat any mugs here.

 Planet Of Sound, from the racing post after its run in the haydock betfair chase on soft ground  " Ended last season with a win in the Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup, his first try at 3m-plus. Good ground is key to the horse, so it was no surprise to see him struggle to quicken out of this tacky surface, but he had earlier impressed with the way he travelled, and did enough to suggest his Punchestown victory wasn´t a fluke.He´ll also head to Kempton for the King George - a course he´s likely to give the winner more of a race at - and he could easily surprise a few there

.

Nacarat running left handed  haydock betfair chase   conceded the early lead to fellow front-runner Ollie Magern before easing back to the front at the entrance to the home straight. He walked through the third-last but kept gallopingto score in decisive style. Reportedly treated for a shoulder problem during the summer, he was clearly fit enough here but his trainer had left a bit to work on, so there could be more to come from him. He will be targeted at the King George again, a race in which he faded into fourth behind Kauto Star last season, and the return to a right-handed track where he goes so well will suit him. Another bold run looks assured, but he cannot keep affording the blunders.(there are great noises coming from the yard)

 Watch the betting I certainly will not be laying Kauto but he has to be as good as he ever was - there is always that day when the champions legs are just not as good as they were in the past - that first day is the time you get the best price on the young pretenders. The Nightingale will be bigger that the 8/1 on offer in running - Planet wants the rain to stay away Nacarat wont mind either way - With Madison de Berlais and Albertas Run taking Kauto on for the lead the odd mistake that Kauto is capable of could be his undoing (just one last point - Mccoy was the last pilot to have the thumbs up and was considered by the owner as not his personal choice because of the way Kauto has to be ridden!

 Good luck all

 Bob