Hi everyone
I've promised Bob a Blog post for a long time now....so here it is!
Some of you may be aware of me either through my own Blog - Narrowing the Field - The Blog - or possible by purchasing one of my publications - 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method To Win at National Hunt Racing'.
Essentially I'm a trends and stats man like Bob. One of the methods I use looks at Breeding, and more specifically sires, in National Hunt racing, an area I feel is much overlooked in the jumping game.
The Dosage angle looks at breeding from a numerical stand point and helps us establish the probable speed and/or stamina capabilities of any horse.
However, Dosage isn't the only angle I use to assess if a sire's offspring are suitable for a race. I also keep track of a number of National Hunt sires with detailed analysis of their offspring's preferences, such as track, going, distance e.t.c....
This kind of approach obviously highlights negative as well as positive angles but it's important to get a grip on the negative angles so that we know when to avoid certain runners or if you're into the laying side of the game it can also highlight value lay 'bets'.
To give you an idea of the kind of trends I'm interested in finding take a look at the stats for the sire SMADOUN and his offspring that go over fences -
48 runners | 12 winners | 25% win Strike-Rate | +£3.96 Level Stakes Profit
Impressive enough on their own but we can improve the stats even more by looking at only his runners that run over distances of 2m5f and further -
23 runners | 7 winners | 30% win Strike-Rate | +£16.73 Level Stakes Profit
A greater strike-rate and LSP just by adding a simple little filter.
*It must also be noted that 10 of the 23 runners hit the top 3 for a 43% top 3 strike-rate.
These are relatively small sample sizes we are looking at here but if you think about having a vast array of these types of angles in your punting arsenal then you can start to see the potential this method has.
Apologies for the short-sharp post tonight but hopefully it at the very least gives you a little something to think on.
Happy punting
Ben (NTF)
4 comments:
Thanks Ben anyone not taking advantage of your blog or publication is missing a information gem.
do you have a list of say the top ten Nh sires you have secreted in your publication?
To all Vfb book users - this is information can be used by entering the sire into the analyser to great effect, it will be brought back to your mind for each race where its progeny are entered. This is an invaluable tool and by reference to Bens invaluable newsletter and publication your information will be the best available - better than any other information source - I KID YOU NOT
Hi Bob
Cheers for those kind comments about my Blog, greatyly appreciated.
I don't really look at this angle from a top 10 viewpoint. I prefer having numerous data on an array of sires. There are some trends that catch my eye more than others but the key to this type of analysis is to keep on top of it and make sure you are aware of developing trends.
Hopefully when more time becomes available to me I can impart more info to your readers.
Cheers again
Bob
Email me what info you need for the sires. I will stick them through my own database... might be helpful (email me though :))
I just ran a quick query through my database - simple example of a sire ... back all of Elusive Quality progeny at Southwell ... 19 winners from 98 (19.4% + 51.73 pts) !! You can just stick the sire through the analyser and you'll find out which type or races, distances etc etc
Post a Comment