Welsh Grand national - the 2009 race revisited and methodology

Hi Guys with the best chase we have seen yet this year thought would remind you of how I use VFB and how on this occasion it put up a big priced winner
 first though for anyone who is interested this is what I do for all big races - sound a bit complicated but it starts with the trends of the races over the previous 10 years - (will publish them for the big event tomorrow night or Friday morning)

 so this may sound like a lot of work but each stage is simple - LOOK at the ten year trends Download the  VFB cards Friday night by all means but it’s the ground that seems the greatest criteria and full analysis must be left to Saturday morning to get the correct going report from the course correspondent the racing post.

Set the page to track distance and going (include distance plus) – as this race is at Chepstow I do not worry about the Course orbital as Chepstow is a very fair track for left or right handed animals.  I ignore speed and master ratings for this handicap type      

At Friday stage running both analyser and betfair prices (which will delete any non runners at this time.) Notes on each horse and previous running’s can be investigated – delete each animal that falls outside of the criteria of the ten year trends. This is a rough guide only and no great drastic cuts should be made – print off the reduced card and retain for Saturday morning – re update book to get the full field of runners.

Then to the card  Saturday morning after re setting the going to the racing post reporter - highlight every runner that conforms to the criteria (there is a lot of yellow on first run) (This year I will suspect the run in last 50 days for obvious reasons but still include on first run.) Check last night’s print out against the highlighted animals this morning.

At this stage I feel I can safely delete with greater confidence and the card will be reduced mightily on this run alone – LOOK AT EVERY HORSE YOU HAVE HIGHLITED you should now be able to look again at your notes and cross reference to the Racing post to see what they thought of the run your considering – look at the Vfb independent handicap and your own handicap mark to see what level they consider it ran to compared to today’s official rating. 

ok so you dont have the trend yet but above is last years VFb card  from which the pin fell on the winner  much to my delight (click to enlarge)

full trends coming watch this space and will print out the card saturday morning

 be good 

 Bobt