A very decent prize for this race and when called the Pierse hdle you could rely on the bottom weights and dark horses - going is described as soft so maybe its back to looking at some of the lower weights that have gone well in this ground - interesting trend is horses with a penalty have not done well over the years and nothing carrying more that 10-11 has won it in yonks and you recall that they can change the mark if top weights withdraw on the day - Psycho got beaten by a 50/1 shot because his weight went up and yet the bottom weight Pennys bill still got in at the minimum 9-09.
This is a complicated race but does throw up some horses that go on to better things - only one horse is on its handicap debut and that's Call the Police for Mullins with his son riding there have been some decent runs fresh and any money will attract me
Whodoyouthink was as impressive as hell against Dungiub last year and could be anything - this race is usually run breakneck so could get the conditions it wants
As for the pricewise selection it looks pretty solid on the trends Prima Vista is very unexposed and will have to improve again for this massive rise in the weights and actually like Meads other runner under Condon Asigh Gold has beaten plenty of these and cannot see why it has no money for it
New Phase could be a handicap snip off 11-07 the trends dont hold up for weights at this end of the handicap and the current price will go if fancied today out of the Weld yard. True the top weights dont fare that well but this is an improving horse well ahead of its rating. worry is seems a right handed animal
Interesting now that have completed the analyser on Prima Vista - have looked at the chances of Tijuana Dancer who ran a really decent race at the Leopardstown meeting against Prima and gets in to this race with a far better chance than Prima (was giving 3lbs and today receives 12 lbs for a 4 l beating
looks very positive with Murphy booked
8 comments:
Thanks Bob, it is an interesting race, cheers for the stats and trends. You know my thoughts on Dunguib so that horse Whodoyouthink merits a closer look. 4 winners come outta that race so the form is strong.
and have updated with a note on
Tijuana Dancer !
I thought you might see that !! I backed it early doors with the exchanges and it's been backed consistently (available at around 9's now). The handicapping doesn't make any sense to me
the market seems to be talking for Capellanus Martin - had to give Prima Vista and Tijuana Dancer weight last time at Leopardstown and gets in well from both of them today - the money makes me interested in this one now -
YES!!!!!!!! THAT'LL do for me !!
ended up grenn on the book thank god and Final approach and Tom Segals tip delivered well - nothing else to take out of the race for me
First three favourites at Southwell puts me in the money! The MCR winner ... one to go mate. Hope you had a cpl of shillings on it too
gone for a small punt on Sivota and place market for Quiros bleu just for a bet really - money coming for Johns nap The Bishops Loony
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