Betfair Celebration Mile 27th aug 2011

The Group 2 Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood today at 3.20 27th August, is today's  big race in Britain this coming weekend. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Last year Poet’s Voice tasted success in the race and he is entered again this year. 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-4-22

4yo: 1-4-19

5yo: 4-1-12

6yo+: 1-2-11

5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).

3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge)

Weight

Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 43 (0-0-2)

Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)

All 10 runners to carry a penalty since 2001 have been beaten.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (Important stat)

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1)

8 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (1 exception had won 3 listed races and other was runner-up in Queen Anne)

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1

7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had not run in a group 1)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Poet's Voice): 31 (1-0-2)

Hungerford Stakes winner (Excelebration): 31 (1-0-2)

Pomfret Stakes winner (Emerald Commander): 3 (0-1-1)

House Stakes winner (Set The Trend): 334 (0-1-3)

Spring Trophy Stakes winner (Beacon Lodge): 334 (0-0-3)

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace Stakes, finishing 522

3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 202

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes, finishing 22

2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

Trainers

Michael Stoute (4-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3 female winners of the race.

Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06, ’09 and last year (later disqualified).

Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners were unplaced.

Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1 though favourites do not have a great record.

Favourites (3-2-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

              

·         3yo who finished in first 5 in St James Palace or aged 5

·         Carrying no penalty

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out

·         Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)

·         Finished in first 5 in a group 1

·         Ran in Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time

·         Trained by Michael Stoute or Saeed Bin Suroor

·         From first 4 in the betting

Verdict -The horse that fits the stats perfectly apart from last time out is Dubawi Gold 3yr old who carries no penalty his fast run against Frankel seems to have been forgotten though it was completely Jockey error in the Irish 1000 gns when Hughes held him far too long and had trouble in running as a result. His run behind Beacon Lodge was also down to a jockey error ( am not sure you can claim Hughes makes that many errors however) The 5 yr old who seems overlooked in the betting will carry some of my money and that is  Set The Trend  his third in very soft ground at Düsseldorf reads so well  has only had three runs this term but his strike rate this distance is far superior to the rest and has decent track form with is dates between runs of the 40 day mark The Favourite Poets Voice has got a pacemaker and the trainer has a brill long layoff stats and any rain will help but the race has to be run to suite it and i think it needs the rain to fall and if it does not is a lay for me 

 Good luck all hope the stats help you make up your mind to get the winner
Result ----
The pace appeared solid for this Group 2 contest, but the form is no more than fair for the grade. The winning time was 2.56sec above RP Standard.

No Strong Suit, but Richard Hannon had a worthy replacement in dual Guineas runner-up DUBAWI GOLD, who returned to his best under a Richard Hughes ´special´, mowing down his rivals late to win with a bit in hand and further increase the dominance of 3yos over their elders in Group races this season. Having run well below par at Royal Ascot, things didn´t go right at Newbury last time (behind Beacon Lodge), but he settled nicely out the back and produced a fine burst to come from virtually last to first in just over a furlong. The Prix du Moulin may be next, but he´ll struggle to land his first Group 1 success their, one would imagine.
Set The Trend, all-the-way winner of a C&D Listed event on fast ground in May, was always well placed and looked to have made a race-winning move when edging ahead inside the final furlong, but despite staying on well, his younger rivals turn of foot was too much. This was still a career-best and he can progress again returned to a genuine sound surface.