Saturday 20 August 2011

Ebor

Really like the chances of Invesstisement  for Gosden as the win and place selection for me today  ran a stormer in the Goodwood 1m6f in May has decent enough form on softish ground and the forecast good is a bit optimistic.  Singspeil animal that has had very little racing  its third at Goodwood behind Icon Dream and Petara Bay read very well in the context of this race useful on the Flat when trained by Andre Fabre in 2009, but he showed little in two starts over hurdles for Evan Williams in2010 and was last seen pulling up in that year´s Triumph Hurdle, after which it was reported he had a breathing problem and been very coltish. Mackay getys on very well with him and he is well in by 4lbs on his run at Goodwood - is coming to hand nicely and will do for me at 29s currently on betfair 
last year the winner carried a lot more than is usual for this race and honestly the price for the win has been all over the place only 1 fav has won and only 2 animals inside 10/1. 
 4/5 yr olds do well carrying less than 9stone  - Nursey really like the chances of Channon's horse Montaff for the win and place this is a decent 2 mile horse and if they go the pace they usually do (hell bent) that could hold it in good stead on the ground today and remeber 5 places for this race - bookies aint mad  they have been pulling in the money at York and want more
 good luck all 
 result ---Moyenne Corniche 25/1 
Tactician 9/1 
3 Investissement 25/1 
Modun 7/1

Although there was a distinct lack of unexposed runners, the absence of any 3yos for the second consecutive season not helping.

They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. However, hand times make the race 1.92sec slower than the earlier Melrose Stakes.

The runner-up, representing a former trainer of the winner, was 6lb higher than when making all in C&D Listed handicap last time (but had 3lb claimer taking over from full jockey). He looked likely to be swamped when strongly challenged on both sides in the straight but kept finding for pressure and deserves extra credit considering his rider´s saddle apparently slipped slightly around 5f out, although his connections said it made no difference. He´s in the Cesarewitch and certainly shapes as though he´ll get further.

MOYENNECORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential inan underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.

The winner might gain some confidence from this, but he won´t be easy to place now. As mentioned, he didn´t have any 3yos todeal with here and a return to Group company would likely require even more.

Investissement was given absolutely every chance under a good ride from Nicky Mackay, but he was outstayed, a bit like at Goodwood last time. It´s true that earlier in the season he narrowly defeated Moyenne Corniche on 2lb better terms over this trip, but today´s winner didn´t let himself down fully on that occasion. John Gosden´s runner shapes as though worth a try back at 1m4f.

One runner surely in need of a return to shorter trips is Modun, who arrived on the scene going as well as any of his rivals, but didn´t see his race out and couldn´t take advantage of being 4lb well-in. There´s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, being a half-brother to dual 2m Group 3 winner Patkai, as well as Saptapadi, but there was a suspicion beforehand this trip would stretch him, indeed when asked about the Ebor trip his trainer once said: "I don´t think that´s his distance." He can do better back at 1m2f-1m4f, but while he looked a definite Pattern performer when bolting up at Newbury on his reappearance, that seems less certain now.

Saptapadi, who was 3lb well-in, represented the same trainer as the winner and Brian Ellison commented immediately afterwards that he thought this one would have won under more patient tactics. While that´s just conjecture, it´s certainly hard to argue the horse wouldn´t have been quite a bit closer under a different ride. Racing close to the pace wasn´t the issue considering the runner-up led,but he was wide without cover for much of the way, and in the circumstances he did well to finish so close.

Fox Hunt had to be walked some of the way to the start, but he ran a mighty race considering he was conceding weight all round (9st 4lb or lower traditionally the favoured weight in this race) and had a slightly wider trip than ideal. He might even have been a place or two closer had he not been short of room late on.

Lost In The Moment had looked a bit unlucky behind subsequent Group 3 winner Green Destiny (and Modun) in the John Smith´s Cup over 1m2f here, and again when behind Opinion Poll (followed up in Lonsdale Cup on this card) when going 2m in the Goodwood Cup, but he ran flat this time, not making the most of being 6lb well-in. He´s not one to rely on.

Mount Athos looked a bit unlucky in both the Chester Cup and Old Newton Cup, but he was made to look paceless in a 1m4f Group 3 last time and it was the same story here, despite a forward ride. He has his quirks and probably won´t be easy to place.

Blissful Moment had been absent since finishing runner-up to Fox Hunt off 2lb lower in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, and he never featured.

Cill Rialaig didn´t run badly considering she was having only her second start of the campaign and had stamina to prove. She could win a nice prize back over shorter before the season is out. [RW]

QUOTES: Trainer Brian Ellison: "Moyenne Corniche has got to be ridden like that. He has to come late and loves that bit of juice in the ground. Saptapadi got lit up and sat too handy and was too keen. We were worried about pace and Kieren wanted to sit handy. If we had dropped him out he probably would have won."

Michael Bell, trainer of Tactician: "He has run very well and there is no hard-luck story, the winner beat him fair and square. The jockey said it made no difference [saddle slipping], he was in a perfect rhythm, it has gone back a bit but he was able to ride him the whole time - it had no effect."

John Gosden, trainer of Investissement: "He ran a good race and we were thrilled with him. We will think about the Mallard for him. The race was run at a sedate pace for the Ebor - the leader nearly nicked it and only one horse got to him in the end.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

25/1 third was the best we could do have updated the results for the Ebor and the notes are worth copying some of these will go Nh next term