The Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race today. A group 1, run over 5 furlongs, for 2 year olds and older, this year’s race looks the most open for years.
Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 years (2000-2010):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
2yo: 1-1-5
3yo: 3-3-29
4yo: 2-9-37
5yo: 2-0-18
6yo+: 2-7-45
No strong trends on the ages though there is slight preference for younger horses.
Horses aged 2 to 4: 6-14-71
Horses aged 5+: 4-7-63
Of the five 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native & Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in group 1 as 2yos (4th Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park)
Gender
Fillies/mares (1-2-26) have gained just 1 win and 2 places from just under 20% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (2 of 4 exceptions unplaced in King George Stakes at Goodwood on previous start)
8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, other 3 had yet to run in higher than group 3)
10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race
Only 3 of 10 winners had won a 5F group race (2 had won Temple, other had won Kings Stand & Prix Gros Chene)
6 of 10 winners had won over 6F (2 exceptions had not run over further than 5F, other 2 were placed on 2 of their 3 runs over 6F)
Other Races
Highest placed July Cup runner: 3141772482 (2-3-10)
Kings Stand winner (Prohibit): 15290 (1-1-5)
Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 1040004 (1-0-7)
Epsom Dash winner (Captain Dunne): 390 (0-1-3)
Sapphire Stakes winner (Invincible Ash): 4502 (0-1-4)
King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 20066 (0-1-5)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 13270
4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 1434
3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 110
3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63
Trainers
Biritish-trained runners: 7-16-119
Irish-trained runners: 2-3-7
French-trained runners: 1-1-6
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (1-2-4) has gained 1 wins and 2 places from his 4 runners in this since 2000.
Eddie Lynam (1-0-1), John Best (1-0-2), Henry Candy (1-0-3) and Dandy Nicholls (1-0-13) have also trained the winner once since 2000.
Kevin Ryan (0-3-8) has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the frame.
Draw
Horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 6-5-40
Horses drawn in middle: 2-6-54
Horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 2-9-40
6 of 10 winners came from stall 4 or below
Last year higher draws appeared to hold an advantage so it’s worth watching where the winners are coming from in the sprints earlier in the week to gain an idea of the best draw over the 5F course.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The favourites won this from 2000 to 2003 however more recently there have been a few bigger priced winners with the last 3 going off at odds of 12/1, 9/1 and last year, Sole Power, at 100/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.39.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 2 or 3 that finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot 2011 or
· Aged 4+ that had won a group 1 or 2
· Won a race this season
· Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in King George Stakes)
· Won a group 1 or 2 sprint
· Won over 6F (or won Temple Stakes this year)
· Finished in first 4 in King’s Stand and/or Palace House Stakes
· Finished in first 2 in July Cup and/or Temple Stakes
· Drawn 1 to 4
· Irish-trained runners do well
Verdict
Hoof it has done so well this term and is the biggest improver in the Vfb and that stat has stood up so well this week so far - I will be including it in forecast pool but I really do like the credentials of Wizz Kid and Prohibit for the frame with a preference for Wizz Kid at the current odds of 12/1 which I think will contract
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