The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting today18th August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first chance for the older horses to take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals.
Below we examine trends for past 10 runnings at York (2000-2010):
Age
3yo: 5-12-51
4yo: 4-4-26
5yo+: 1-0-3
5 of 10 winners were aged 4+ despite them only representing 36% of the total runners.
3 of the 4 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th and 2nd).
4 of 5 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
Recent Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions were placed in a group 2, other was unplaced in the Eclipse)
7 of 10 winners posted their highest MR last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or more times that season
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had won race previous year and both starts that season were against the colts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions won a group 2, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)
Other Races
Irish Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 11122 (3-2-5)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpire): 3R5 (0-1-3)
Noblesse Stakes winner (Banimpire): 6R (0-0-2)
Ribblesdale winner (Banimpire): 45477 (0-0-5)
4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 4812 Wonder Of Wonders and Blue Bunting
4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1112
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111 Blue Bunting won from Banimpire Wonder of Wonder Laughing Lashes and Rhum
3 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix de Royallieu, 83
Trainers
British trained runners: 7-13-56
Irish trained runners: 2-1-16
German/Italian trained runners: 1-1-4
French trained runners: 0-1-4
Michael Stoute (4-3-10) has won 4 of last 10 runnings of this race and the record of his first string is 4 wins & 3 places from 7 runners.
Aidan O’Brien (2-0-10) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race at York.
Henry Cecil (1-2-4) and John Gosden (1-2-4) have each trained the winner in the past 2 years and both have seen 3 of their 4 runners since 2000 make the frame.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
Super Tassa at 25/1 in 2001 has been the only real shock in the past 10 renewals, all other winners came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 3.13.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
· Aged 4+ that finished in first 4 in this race in 2010
· Run at least twice in 2011
· Won last time out
· Ran in a group 1 or 2 last time
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Previously won a group 1
· Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
· Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly winner
Blue Bunting is the fav and fullfils most of the stats VFb top on improvers is Wonder Of Wonders 9 points above Crystal Capplla with Banimpire holding the top blues of the contest -- wait to see if this g/sft ground is confirmed as it was dead ground yesterday
No comments:
Post a Comment