Gold Cup Thursday - currently g/f ground

The Ascot Gold Cup is the highlight of day 3 and for many the whole Royal Ascot meeting. A group 1 run over 2M 4F for 4 year olds and upwards, it has been won for the past 4 years by the mighty Yeats who will not attempting a fifth win in the race this year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
4yo	2	6	41
5yo	2	4	32
6yo	4	4	21
7yo+	2	6	31

Record of 4 & 5 year olds: 4-10-73

Record of horses aged 6+: 6-10-52

Horses aged 6+ have a stronger record, however the stats are slightly distorted by Yeats having won the race at 6, 7 and 8.

Two 4yos winners finished 5th in a Classic the year before (French Derby and English St Leger).

Gender

Fillies & mares (0-0-7) have failed to fill one place from 7 representatives however only one of them went off shorter than 12/1 (13/2).

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 2 times that season

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

6 of 10 winners won last time out

8 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a group 1 (2 exceptions won a group 2)

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (exception Yeats in 06 was having first try over further than 1M 6F)

Other Races

Previous season's Prix Royal Oak winner (Ask): 2121541 (3-2-7)

Previous season's Irish St Leger winner (Alandi): 1231 (2-2-4)

Henry II Stakes winner (Akmal): 61178903 (2-1-8)

Previous season's Prix Gladiateur winner (Kasbah Bliss): 3123 (1-3-4)

Prix Vicomtesse Vigier winner (Kite Wood): 3163 (1-2-4)

Previous season's Prix Du Cadran winner (Alandi): 421209 (1-2-6)

Yorkshire Cup winner (Manifest): 155602 (1-1-6)

Previous season's Jockey Club Cup winner (Akmal): 22P (0-2-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Gold Cup, finishing 312111

5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix Du Cadran, finishing 34135

5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Goodwood Cup, finishing 11611

4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 5111

4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish St Leger, finishing 1421

4 of 10 winners ran in the Henry II Stakes last time out, finishing 9811

3 of 10 winners (all Yeats) ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 116

2 of 10 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup, finishing 16

Trainers

British trained runners: 5-14-100 (all 5 ran in Henry II or Yorkshire Cup)

Irish trained runners: 4-2-14 (all 4 wins were Yeats)

French trained runners: 1-3-6 (all 6 ran in Prix Vicomtesse Vigier last time)

German trained: 0-1-2

Other: 0-0-3

Aidan O’Brien (4-0-7) has trained Yeats to win the race for past 4 years, though his other 3 runners in the race all failed to make the places (all 3 were priced 8/1 or bigger).

Mark Johnston (2-1-8) trained Royal Rebel to win the race in 2001 and 2002.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-20) has trained the winner twice in the past ten years though his representatives have made up 16% of the total runners and none of his 10 runners in the past 5 years have made the frame.

Michael Stoute (0-3-6) has seen his last 3 colts to run in this finish 2nd-3rd-2nd.

Dermot Weld (0-2-3) saddled Vinnie Roe to be placed in this race twice.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in betting

Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 3 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 5 years.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 (4 of last 5) and show a level stakes profit of 1.62 over the past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Avoid fillies and mares

· Run 1 to 2 times this season

· Won last time

· Won a group 1

· Won over 2M+

· Finished in the first 3 in the Gold Cup last year

· Won or placed in Prix Royal Oak, Prix Du Cadran, Goodwood Cup or Irish Leger last season

· Ran in Yorkshire Cup, Vintage Crop or Henry II Stakes this season

· From the first 4 in the betting (no bigger than 8/1)

· French trained runners respected

Selection each way has to be Bannaby winner over this distance and currently 25/1 in the betting

here is the Racing Post comment of its wins against Kasbah Bliss and Yeats in the 2008 Prix De Cadron over 2m4f good ground DRAN (GROUP 1)

- This was a two-horse race according to the betting, with Yeats odds-on to record a sixth Group 1 win, and World Hurdle-targetedKasbah Bliss the clear second favourite. Yeats, who had warmed up for last year´s Cadran with a victory in the Irish St Leger, was running this time off the back of a fair absence, having not raced since July, when he won the Goodwood Cup. The way he ran suggested he may have benefited from a race since July, though it has to be said that he has never won outside Britainor Ireland. He has run five times now out of his geographical comfort zone, and all five times he has run below-par. Connections will no doubt bear that in mind in deciding whether to persevere with the admirable seven-year-old. All looked to be going swimmingly until the false straight there was barely any change in the order until push came to shove entering the straight proper but Yeats found disappointingly little on ground that shouldn´t have inconvenienced him.

BANNABY, who had finished a six-length second to Kasbah Bliss in the Prix Gladiateur, has finished first or second in his seven races since last November, a commendably consistent run of form, though this was much his best runon his 25th start. He was never far away before taking up the running a furlong and a half out. He edged right and finished on the far rail, but never looked in much danger of being mown down, despite the narrow margin of victory. The ground would have been quick enough for the winner, and he has yet to be tested on faster than good. At five, he is young enough to be campaigned in top staying races for a good few seasons. He´s an entire, so hurdling presumably is not an option for the time being. His trainer indicated he would be aimed at the Ascot Gold Cup in 2009. (did not run)

His recent form has been over 1m7f on good ground in May - Held up in midfield going well, smooth headway 4f out to join leaders, led inside final furlong, easily

the ground has to be the worry for this animal but in every other regard has an outstanding chance of reaching the frame at big odds

good luck all - now all you have to do is get the tricast"

Bob t