First run in 1883 the Northumberland Plate takes place on Saturday 26th June and is the highlight of this weekend's three-day Newcastle meeting. The race is limited to 20 runners and although it is run over 2 miles, the draw has still proven to be a big factor in the past decade.
Last Year the race was won by Som Tala (4), Age 6, Wgt 8 - 8, SP 16/1 - A Culhane / M R Channon (17 ran)
age - No very strong age trends though horses aged 6+ have won 4 of the last 6.
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-20-114
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-11-72
Weights Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-125
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 8-11 or less
Official Ratings Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-13-66
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-94
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-3-26
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 85 to 93
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had ran in a class 2 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or 4 but at no higher
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+
Other Races
Previous season's winner: 708 (0-0-3)
Chester Cup winner (Mamlook): 9830 (0-1-4)
Ascot Stakes winner (Junior): 288 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot last time out, finishing 725
3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing 102
Trainers
No trainer with an entry in the race this year has won it before.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-5) have found a win and a place from just 5 representatives.
Alan Swinbank (0-2-3) and Richard Fahey (0-2-5) have both filled a couple of places in the past decade.
Brian Smart (0-1-1), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-1) and john Queally (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the places.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-5) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 6-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-6-46
5 of the last 7 winners were drawn 7 or lower.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 5 of the last 6 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6+
· Carrying 8-11 or less
· Officially rated 85 to 93
· Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
· Ran in last 55 days
· Ran 2 to 6 times this year
· Won over 1M 6F+
· Drawn 1 to 7
· Priced 12/1 or higher
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