KING´S STAND STAKES (BRITISH LEG OF THE GLOBAL SPRINT CHALLENGE) (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £170,310BBC2 Good 5f Number of runners: 12

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10:57am The biggest prize of the day

Going remains good.

The going remains good for day one of Royal Ascot. Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said: "We had six and a half millimetres of rain on Sunday night but we were dry last night and the forecast for the next few days is to be mainly dry with the chance of a shower later in the week. I am delighted with the course, it's in great shape.

Here are the 10 year trends for this race courtesy of racecaller http://www.racecaller.com/latest-news.php?id=6714

Previous season's King George Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): 01100 (2-0-5)

Palace House Stakes winner (Equiano): 033400 (0-2-6)

Temple Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): 13003 (1-2-5)

Previous season's Abbaye winner (Total Gallery): 2067 (0-1-4)

Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Bordlescott): 7905 (0-0-4)

Previous season's July Cup winner (Fleeting Spirit): 0 (0-0-1)

Trainers

Australian trained runners: 4-2-11

British trained runners: 3-15-154

French trained runners: 2-0-8

Spanish trained runners: 1-0-1

Japanese trained runners: 0-1-2

Hong Kong trained runners: 0-1-3

Irish trained runners: 0-1-7

South African trained runners: 0-0-2

American trained runners: 0-0-3

Record of horses trained in Great Britain & Ireland: 3-16-161

Record of horses trained outside Great Britain & Ireland: 7-4-30

Australian based trainers (4-2-11) have the best record of the foreign trainers winning 4 of the last 7.(Gold Trail)

Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) has saddled Fleeting Spirit to be placed in the race the past two years.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-9-45

Horses drawn 6 to 10: 2-5-45

Horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-2-43

Horses drawn 16 or higher: 3-2-42

Horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 3-9-45

Horses drawn in middle stalls: 3-7-85

Horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 3-2-45

There is a definite bias to being drawn close to the rails. Horsesdrawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 6-11-90, compared horses drawn in the middle of 3-7-85.

Price

There have been a few upsets in this race in the past decade with 4 of 10 winners going off 16/1 or bigger though in the past 6 years, 5 of 6 winners were 8/1 or shorter and came from first 5 in the betting

Favourites (2-4-11) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• · Won last time out
• · Had won over 6F
• · Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• · Run 2 to 4 times this year
• · Won the Lightning Stakes at Flemington
• · Ran in the Prix du Gros-Chene or Crown Newmarket Handicap last time
• · Trained outside of GB & Ire, especially Australian based
• · Drawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls

So what am I siding with? The two unknown horses are the Australian pair and Nicconi under Detorri is being backed and prop go off fav - looking at its ground form this may be too quick for him (though have no times to back that up) his wins have been on the softer side of good with only 2 wins on good and those over 5flngs ok he qualifies by winning the lightening Stakes but- will not be backing it Visored first time and up in trip does not bode well for a horse that may just tear off--- if it does then will be def tempted to lay in running)

ok look at the trends ---there is only 4 4yr old and two 3 yr olds (Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 4-12-84) Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 6-8-107 - not a lot to go on

7 of 10 winners won last time out --- only Two qualify for this stat - Kingsgate Native (Drawn7) winner last year in the Jubilee Stakes from the 3 box under seb saunders and beat so many of these last time 5flngs under moore at haydock

Markable (Drawn 9) winner of a stakes race last time on a flat track under Pat Cosgrove and though has won at ripon with a bit of a hill and over 6flngs has no real creds in the Stats record.

I have analysed this race as if it was a handicap (Yeah yeah)

Kingsgate I make a recorded 118 twice over 5flngs

Equiano recorded 117 a long time ago 5flngs ascot.

Markable recorded only 101 at Newmarket and Amore Propre recorded 113 at Newmarket.

Dear old Borderless Scott recorded the best ever of 130

The best time of year for these records was the summer months whilst Borderless the only one late summer early autumn.

So - am going to select Kingsgate native for the win and both Candy Horses for the win and place market (have asked for big prices on them)

Good Luck all