THE STEWARDS CUP

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Good Morning my loyal band of trend watchers! today is the day for one of the best sprint races in the calendar

As ever stats in bold blue are rock solid trends -

those in red are negative trends

and those in purple are considered to be each way indicators

Some bookies are going Five places for this race guys

The Bluesquare.com Stewards Cup, takes place on Saturday 31st July, is the big betting race of Glorious Goodwood’s 5-day meeting. It’s run over 6 furlongs and is always highly competitive. Horses aged 4 or 5 that are drawn high usually do best. (HOWEVER Ground goes quickly at Goodwood - last year the winner Genki came from the 10 box and animals drawn 10 to 16 were the first 5 home)

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

	W	P	R
3yo	0	1	19
4yo	3	10	87
5yo	6	7	69
6yo	1	7	53
7yo+	0	5	51

The last 9 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5

Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-12-104

Weight

Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 5-14-126

Horses carrying 8-13 or less: 5-16-153

No massive trend on the weights, though in the last 5 years 16 of 20 places have been filled by horses carrying 9-0 or more.

Horses carrying a penalty: 3-4-42

Top weight: 90008005603 (0-1-11) however there is place money to be had from top weights - this year Knot in wood carries 9-10 - runs well this race and put up a cracker of a run in the Wokingham

Official Ratings

Horses rated 99 or higher: 2-8-95

Horses rated 91 to 98: 7-10-106

Horses rated 90 or less: 1-12-78

9 of the last 10 winners have been officially rated between 91 and 102

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out

8 of 10 winners had run in past 25 days (2 exceptions ran in last 60 days)

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season

10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 20 handicaps

10 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 20K or more

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Genki): 2 (0-1-1)

Sportingbet.com Stakes handicap winner (Ingleby Lady): 016 (1-0-3)

Cathedral Stakes winner (Sir Gerry): 00 (0-0-2)

Windsor 6F Heritage Handicap winner (Parisian Pyramid): 000 (0-0-3)

7 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 0854700- there are 12 runners who competed in this race

Striking Spirit ran a terrific race. A course-and-distance winner last season, he has been running well this year and, having been up with the pace on the nearside from the start, went to the front inside the last quarter-mile, only to run into a Group horse in a handicap. He deserves to pick up one of these races and is not out of it today.

Palace Moon, suited by the trip and ground and a Listed winner last season, had won his only previous run in a handicap, albeit off a 17lb lower mark. Having his first run for the yard and loaded using a blanket, he was given a lot to do, being held up right at the back and still there at halfway and at least two lengths off the winner. He made good late headway and, although he would not have beaten the mare with a more positive ride, he would probably have finished closer. has Mr fallon today and well drawn in the 20 box !

Knot In Wood, a regular in these big handicaps and making his fourth appearance in the race, having been fourth in 2008 and tenth in 2007 and 2009, equalled his previous best aided by having a decent claimer up. He will appreciate slightly easier ground and is always one to consider in these big sprints.( has def possibility of getting into the first five home)

First home on the far side was Genki, a dual course-and-distance winner who was well beaten in this race last season but won the Stewards´ Cup next time. He was 7lb higher but ran a terrific race and this should set him up nicely in his bid for a repeat success at Goodwood. well drawn in the highest box

Noverre To Go beat the runner-up in the previous day´s Buckingham Palace off a 5lb lower mark at Newmarket last time, and was another to run well on a track where he has won before. He was clear of the rest on the far side and looks set to find another decent race before long. (well drawn in the higher box today)

Edge Closer looked on the way back when third for the second successive year in a Windsor Listed race last time. This was his first run in a handicap for the best part of two years and he ran well, having stuck to the stands´ rail throughout. Poor Draw in the 3 box today -

Ingleby Lady has gained all her wins on fast ground and is suited by this trip. She ran well, having tracked the pace on the nearside from the start, (flatter tracks suit.well drawn in the high box today)


Rileyskeepingfaith, a 7f course winner last season, was struggling on the far side over two furlongs out but his stamina kicked in and he ran on in the closing stages. He will appreciate the return to further but has won 6flngs and dont forget Hughes has had some startling results this goodwood!.


Johannes, a progressive sprinter last season (won Stewards´ Cup consolation race), has gone up 27lb in the handicap since the start of 2009 but scored off 5lb lower mark than this on his seasonal return. He showed plenty of speed on the far side until carried left two furlongs out, from which point he faded. The fact that he is here today is worth noting and market should be watched


Kaldoun Kingdom has hit form in the autumn in previous seasons but won on his seasonal return this year. He was another who failed to enter the argument on the stands´ side is arguably best suited by a flat track.

Prohibit finished fifth in this race last year and has been in fair form this season. He came through to join the leaders on the far side entering the last quarter-mile but could not sustain the effort.not a good draw today

Evens And Odds, runner-up to Genki in the Stewards´ Cup last season, showed up early on the outside of the stands´ side group before fading.
The best handicapped horse in today is Sonny Red ridden by Quinn - - dandy was very shy about his chances but thought he had a big chance on the morning Line today.

My tentative selections at this stage have to be with the high draw middle draw and bottom draw because i want to spread my bets

high drawn _ Genki - visored first time and ran a cracker in the wokingham

Palace moon Under Fallon - given too much to do in the wokingham and you know what fallon can conjure

Striking Spirit from the low draw - was impressed the way she quickened at the end of the Wokingham

and my big outsider place horse to buck the trends is Knot in Wood-- has a lot of negatives hence the price

4 of 10 winners ran in the Sportingbet.com Stakes Handicap at York, finishing 9031

3 of 10 winners ran in 6F Windsor Heritage Handicap in June, finishing 072

2 of 10 winners ran in International Stakes at Ascot last time, finsihing 34

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Jockey Club handicap, finsihing 91

2 of 10 winners won the Bunbury Cup

Trainers

Dandy Nicholls (2-8-44) trained the winner in 2000 and 2005 and 8 more of his 44 runners have made the frame.

Roger Charlton (2-0-4) has won the race in 1999, 2003 and 2009 from his last 5 runners in this race.

John Fanshawe (1-2-3), Robin Bastiman (1-2-3) and William Haggas(1-1-2) have all trained the winner and have seen all their runners make the frame.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 10: 2-9-100

Horses drawn 11 to 20: 5-8-100

Horses drawn 21 or higher: 3-13-79

The only horse to win this from a single-figure draw was Pivotal Point, who won a group 3 and a group 2 in his next 3 races.

Horses drawn in the highest 3 stalls have a good record (3-8-30). See Note above if the ground goes!

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting

There have been 2 shock winners of this race at 33/1 and 40/1 last year but the other 8 winners all went off 14/1 or less.

Favourites (2-5-15) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.36 over the past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 or 5 (especially 5yos)

· Carrying 9-0+

· Officially rated 91 to 102

· Won a race this season

· Ran in a class 2 or higher in the last 25 days

· Won over 6F

· Won or placed in a race worth 20K+

· Ran in the Wokingham this season

· Trained by R Charlton, D Nicholls, J Fanshawe or W Haggas

· Drawn 10 or higher (especially 3 highest stalls)

So 28 runners and no sign of ground change though --7.30 am this morning GOING: Straight: GOOD (Good to firm in places); Round course: GOOD TO FIRM (GS: Stands' side 7.9, Centre 7.9, Far side 8.1, Round 9.0) (Fresh ground top bend) WEATHER (Light rain)

Here is a very important Comment from Gerry "Gerald posted something on your Wall and wrote:

"Hi Bob, I have a query with your Stewards Cup blog, particularly with the summary · Aged 4 or 5 (especially 5yos)

· Carrying 9-0+

· Officially rated 91 to 102 )

lines 1-3 seem to rule out the entire field?? 9st plus rules out everything up to Ingleby Lady, and she is rated more than 102(as are the rest, natch). I will rate what I can where stats prove positive, okay, Gerry"

Yep Gerry the stats are simply the facts of what has won this race - the majority of the field do carry these weights and from that age group this year only 2 runners carry less than those weights. - its the stats below them that make the case for the rest

Result ---

3:40 - Bluesq.com Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap)

6f, Class 2, £62,310.00

1 Evens And Odds 20/1
2 Jonny Mudball 14/1
3 Prohibit 33/1
4 Rileyskeepingfaith 12/1

ARTEMIS GOODWOOD CUP (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) 3.25

Click on image to enlarge

ARTEMIS GOODWOOD CUP (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £56,770CH4
Good To Firm 2m Number of runners: 12

year	age	Prv wins	wgt	price	horse	Last run	No of runs
2009	6yo	12	9-7	6/4		Disq 2nd prince wales nmkt	2
2008	7yo	12	9-12	8/15f	Yeatss	Won last 2 inlc gold cup ascot	2
2007	4yo	3	9-5	8/1		Btn 22l yeats ascot gold cup	3
2006	5yo	5	9-10	10/11 f	Yeats	Won ascot g/cup	1
2005	6yo	4	9-5	11/4		3rd ascot g/cup	2
2004	6yo	4	9-4	11/8f		3rd asct g/cup	3
2003	10yo	16	9-4	7/2	Persian punch	Won esher stakes sand	3
2002	5yo	3	9-2	10/1		9th ascot g/cup	4
2001	8yo	12	9-5	6/1	Persian punch	2nd gld cupasct	3
2000	4yo	3	9-2	10/1		2nd chal cup leop	4

Recent Form

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out ( 1 disqualified)

8 of 10 winners ran in the ascot gold cup

9 of 10 winners had run between 3 and 4 times that season

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2 wins)

Saeed Bin Suroor (1 win)

Price 6 of 10 winners have come with the favourite( very strong trend is that they all ran in the Ascot gold cup that year.

winners have come from the first 4 in the betting with only 2 double figure animals and they both had run listed races

Summary – Gold cup at ascot is the strongest trend with 6 yr old and 4 yr olds carrying a slight edge if they ran in it. These three ran in it this year

The current favourite Age of Aquarius ran second to Rite Of Passage - Johnny Murtagh rode him positively and managed to gain an advantage on his rivals into the home straight. The winner was just too strong in the final stages, but there was no hint that Aidan O´Brien´s colt shirked the issue and he has plenty of time to make his mark at this level over extended distances. Perhaps the Goodwood Cup will be the race for him - that´s where Yeats went after his first Gold Cup.

There was a gap back to Purple Moon, who had been beaten by wide margins on his two outings this season. He looked to be going nowhere quickly heading to the home bend but, under a strong ride, he keptgoing nicely at the one pace. The step up in trip on going he thrives on brought out the best in him, and he is likely to stick to staying trips. According to Luca Cumani he could aimed at races likes the Goodwood Cup and the Lonsdale Cup, and he´ll probably be entered for the Melbourne Cup again as well.

Kite Wood is carrying 9-10(carried to victory only once in the last ten years was given every chance once the tempo lifted, albeit he was forced wide, but he struggled to get involved. He had got very warm beforehand, something he did on occasions last year, and that probably compromised his chance.

Of the rest – Hannon is very sweet on the chances of the Queens horse won well at York group 1 1m6f - The front two drew a few lengths clear in this Listed handicap, despite it appearing to have been run at an ordinary gallop until the tempo lifted rounding for home.

FREE AGENT struggled to make an impact as a 3yo, having won the Chesham as a juvenile, but he shaped as though this trip may suit when fourth off a mark of 100 on his reappearance at Windsor, and really came strong inside the final furlong, readily picking off Drunken Sailor and winning with a bit in hand. He remains an interesting horse, this being just his ninth start, and connections will presumably look for another Listed of Group 3 race now.