Click to enlarge and study this VFB screenshotGood Morning my loyal band of trend watchers! today is the day for one of the best sprint races in the calendar
The Bluesquare.com Stewards Cup, takes place on Saturday 31st July, is the big betting race of Glorious Goodwood’s 5-day meeting. It’s run over 6 furlongs and is always highly competitive. Horses aged 4 or 5 that are drawn high usually do best. (HOWEVER Ground goes quickly at Goodwood - last year the winner Genki came from the 10 box and animals drawn 10 to 16 were the first 5 home)
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
| W | P | R |
3yo | 0 | 1 | 19 |
4yo | 3 | 10 | 87 |
5yo | 6 | 7 | 69 |
6yo | 1 | 7 | 53 |
7yo+ | 0 | 5 | 51 |
The last 9 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-12-104
Weight
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 5-14-126
Horses carrying 8-13 or less: 5-16-153
No massive trend on the weights, though in the last 5 years 16 of 20 places have been filled by horses carrying 9-0 or more.
Horses carrying a penalty: 3-4-42
Top weight: 90008005603 (0-1-11) however there is place money to be had from top weights - this year Knot in wood carries 9-10 - runs well this race and put up a cracker of a run in the Wokingham
Official Ratings
Horses rated 99 or higher: 2-8-95
Horses rated 91 to 98: 7-10-106
Horses rated 90 or less: 1-12-78
9 of the last 10 winners have been officially rated between 91 and 102
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in past 25 days (2 exceptions ran in last 60 days)
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 20 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 20K or more
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Genki): 2 (0-1-1)
Sportingbet.com Stakes handicap winner (Ingleby Lady): 016 (1-0-3)
Cathedral Stakes winner (Sir Gerry): 00 (0-0-2)
Windsor 6F Heritage Handicap winner (Parisian Pyramid): 000 (0-0-3)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 0854700- there are 12 runners who competed in this race
Palace Moon, suited by the trip and ground and a Listed winner last season, had won his only previous run in a handicap, albeit off a 17lb lower mark. Having his first run for the yard and loaded using a blanket, he was given a lot to do, being held up right at the back and still there at halfway and at least two lengths off the winner. He made good late headway and, although he would not have beaten the mare with a more positive ride, he would probably have finished closer. has Mr fallon today and well drawn in the 20 box !
Knot In Wood, a regular in these big handicaps and making his fourth appearance in the race, having been fourth in 2008 and tenth in 2007 and 2009, equalled his previous best aided by having a decent claimer up. He will appreciate slightly easier ground and is always one to consider in these big sprints.( has def possibility of getting into the first five home)
First home on the far side was Genki, a dual course-and-distance winner who was well beaten in this race last season but won the Stewards´ Cup next time. He was 7lb higher but ran a terrific race and this should set him up nicely in his bid for a repeat success at Goodwood. well drawn in the highest box
Noverre To Go beat the runner-up in the previous day´s Buckingham Palace off a 5lb lower mark at Newmarket last time, and was another to run well on a track where he has won before. He was clear of the rest on the far side and looks set to find another decent race before long. (well drawn in the higher box today)
Edge Closer looked on the way back when third for the second successive year in a Windsor Listed race last time. This was his first run in a handicap for the best part of two years and he ran well, having stuck to the stands´ rail throughout. Poor Draw in the 3 box today -
Ingleby Lady has gained all her wins on fast ground and is suited by this trip. She ran well, having tracked the pace on the nearside from the start, (flatter tracks suit.well drawn in the high box today)
Rileyskeepingfaith, a 7f course winner last season, was struggling on the far side over two furlongs out but his stamina kicked in and he ran on in the closing stages. He will appreciate the return to further but has won 6flngs and dont forget Hughes has had some startling results this goodwood!.
Johannes, a progressive sprinter last season (won Stewards´ Cup consolation race), has gone up 27lb in the handicap since the start of 2009 but scored off 5lb lower mark than this on his seasonal return. He showed plenty of speed on the far side until carried left two furlongs out, from which point he faded. The fact that he is here today is worth noting and market should be watched
Kaldoun Kingdom has hit form in the autumn in previous seasons but won on his seasonal return this year. He was another who failed to enter the argument on the stands´ side is arguably best suited by a flat track.
Prohibit finished fifth in this race last year and has been in fair form this season. He came through to join the leaders on the far side entering the last quarter-mile but could not sustain the effort.not a good draw today
Evens And Odds, runner-up to Genki in the Stewards´ Cup last season, showed up early on the outside of the stands´ side group before fading.
The best handicapped horse in today is Sonny Red ridden by Quinn - - dandy was very shy about his chances but thought he had a big chance on the morning Line today.
My tentative selections at this stage have to be with the high draw middle draw and bottom draw because i want to spread my bets
high drawn _ Genki - visored first time and ran a cracker in the wokingham
Palace moon Under Fallon - given too much to do in the wokingham and you know what fallon can conjure
Striking Spirit from the low draw - was impressed the way she quickened at the end of the Wokingham
and my big outsider place horse to buck the trends is Knot in Wood-- has a lot of negatives hence the price
4 of 10 winners ran in the Sportingbet.com Stakes Handicap at York, finishing 9031
3 of 10 winners ran in 6F Windsor Heritage Handicap in June, finishing 072
2 of 10 winners ran in International Stakes at Ascot last time, finsihing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Jockey Club handicap, finsihing 91
2 of 10 winners won the Bunbury Cup
Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (2-8-44) trained the winner in 2000 and 2005 and 8 more of his 44 runners have made the frame.
Roger Charlton (2-0-4) has won the race in 1999, 2003 and 2009 from his last 5 runners in this race.
John Fanshawe (1-2-3), Robin Bastiman (1-2-3) and William Haggas(1-1-2) have all trained the winner and have seen all their runners make the frame.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 2-9-100
Horses drawn 11 to 20: 5-8-100
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 3-13-79
The only horse to win this from a single-figure draw was Pivotal Point, who won a group 3 and a group 2 in his next 3 races.
Horses drawn in the highest 3 stalls have a good record (3-8-30). See Note above if the ground goes!
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
There have been 2 shock winners of this race at 33/1 and 40/1 last year but the other 8 winners all went off 14/1 or less.
Favourites (2-5-15) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.36 over the past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5 (especially 5yos)
· Carrying 9-0+
· Officially rated 91 to 102
· Won a race this season
· Ran in a class 2 or higher in the last 25 days
· Won over 6F
· Won or placed in a race worth 20K+
· Ran in the Wokingham this season
· Trained by R Charlton, D Nicholls, J Fanshawe or W Haggas
· Drawn 10 or higher (especially 3 highest stalls)
· Carrying 9-0+
· Officially rated 91 to 102 )
lines 1-3 seem to rule out the entire field?? 9st plus rules out everything up to Ingleby Lady, and she is rated more than 102(as are the rest, natch). I will rate what I can where stats prove positive, okay, Gerry"
Yep Gerry the stats are simply the facts of what has won this race - the majority of the field do carry these weights and from that age group this year only 2 runners carry less than those weights. - its the stats below them that make the case for the rest
Result ---
3:40 - Bluesq.com Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap)
6f, Class 2, £62,310.00
1 Evens And Odds 20/1
2 Jonny Mudball 14/1
3 Prohibit 33/1
4 Rileyskeepingfaith 12/1
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