Eclipse 10 year Trends

The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 3rd July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

	W	P	R
3yo	4	5	30
4yo	4	9	33
5yo	2	3	20
6yo+	0	1	6

8 of 10 winners were aged 3 or 4

All four 3yo winners were trained in Ireland and no horse aged over 5 has won this in the past century.

Gender

Fillies and Mares (0-1-4) have gained just one place from 4 runners despite 3 of the 4 females to run in this going off at odds of shorter than 5/1.

Kooyonga in 1992 was last filly to win this race.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winner achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days

10 of 10 winners had won a group 1

7 of 10 winners were having first course start (other 3 course winners)

3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races

Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 3-3-15

Previous season's Celebration Mile winner (Zacinto): 1 (1-0-1)

Champion Stakes winner (Twice Over): 81 (1-0-2)

Earl Of Sefton Stakes winner (Sri Putra): 5422 (0-2-4)

Sandown Classic Trial winner (Chabal): 40 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 115

3 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 543

6 of 6 winners aged 4+ finished in the first 5 in the Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales

4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2241

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 201

2 of 10 winners ran in St James' Palace Stakes last time, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby last time, finishing 21

4 of 4 winner aged 3 finished in the first 4 in the 2000 Guineas and finished in the first 3 in the Derby or St James Palace last time out

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (4-4-19) has trained the winner 4 times in the past 10 years.

Michael Stoute (2-4-12) has had 2 winners and half his 12 runners have made the frame. Stoute has trained the winner 5 times in the races history, all 5 of those winners were previous group 1 winners aged 4 or 5.

Luca Cumani (1-0-3) and Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-9) have both trained the winner once in the past decade.

Henry Cecil (0-2-4) has had couple of his runners placed in the race including Phoenix Tower last year, who was only beaten a short head.

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 9) have come from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner in the past decade was sent off greater than 8/1.

Favourites (2-4-10) don’t have a great record in this race with just 2 winners in the past decade. They show a level stakes loss of 6.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Male aged 3 or 4

· Had 2 to 4 runs this season

· Run in last 30 days

· Won a group 1

· A 3yo who finished in the first 4 in 2000 Guineas & finished in first 3 in the Derby or St James Palace

· A horses aged 4+ that finished in first 5 in the Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales last time out

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute

· From first 4 in the betting

Posted 9am Saturday -Well the race has cut up since our first look and 6 runners does not make it any easier

for me therefore the Champion stakes is the race i base my selection on

Twice Over won well from Mawatheeq and these two are coupled on that run the preference for the race today is Mawatheeq supplemented following his impressive Cumberland Lodge win, required two handlers in the paddock and was a little reluctant to load. He found it difficult to go the pace and was niggled along at halfway, but was beginning to run on when he was forced to switch left as a gap between Pipedreamer and the winner closed. He ran on strongly once gathering momentum again. was reeling in Twice Over at the line. He disappointed at Ascot last time on his first run back pulling hard and wide and not getting home - forget that run this smaller field will be right up his street Twice Over is 2/1 currently and Mawatheeq is 6/1 this does not truly reflect their abilities and the if with him is has he got over the winter injury?

any real money should tell

Result -

1 Twice Over 13/8F
2 Sri Putra 33/1
3 Viscount Nelson 4/1

NR: Mawatheeq (USA)

The lack of runners gave this year´s renewal a below-par look, especially as four of them did not manage a place on their previous outing, so it was really disappointing when the mulish Mawatheeq refused to go into the stalls, reducing the field to only five, the smallest amount of runners since Hawk Wing outclassed four rivals in 2002. Marcus Tregoning´s horse had a handler at the start to help but he was having none of it and never looked like going in. He will now need to pass a stalls test before running again.

Ratings for this race byGerry on his blog

http://ratingsbytime.blogspot.com/2010/07/eclipse-stakes.html#comments

hursday, 1 July 2010

ECLIPSE STAKES The race has cut up badly, and 2010 ratings available are not very good, but all could be better than these ratings.

MAWATHEEQ - 95 Rating from only run this year, behind Buzzword and TWICE OVER. Very poor race on time, but should improve for the run.

TWICE OVER - 101 Finish close second to Buzzword, and looked to be coming back to its best, and again should rate higher than this.

SRI PUTRA- 107 Rating came from first time out win, and the time was slow, and therefore rated below its Official mark. Very poor run next time.

VISCOUNT NELSON - 111 (For cricket fans, stand on one leg throughout the race!)

This was a better run in the Irish 2000gns, behind Canford Cliffs. Breeding suggest he may be better at this 10f, so not without a chance. O'Brien horses in better form now?

ZACINTO - 118 Excellent run behind Goldikova at Ascot, and gets the top mark ... However, that was over 8f, most of his better runs are over that distance, so will the extra 2f be an advantage ... ? I would suggest that the breeding and running style would say no, even in this small field with no guaranteed pacemaker.

DAR RE MI - 118(est) The only rating I can give here is through Sariska - If Sariska's win at York rated the same as a .75l defeat by Dar Re Mi last year, then 118 is what you get.

Unfortunately, my ratings for 08 and 09 both ran out of steam just when the season kicks into top gear - hence only 2010 ratings.

Gerry Conclusion - DAR RE MI to win, but as it is likely to be a muddling race, pacewise, I would have a saver on VISCOUNT NELSON. 3yo's have as good a record in the race as any group.