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The Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes is the big race on the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, which begins on Wednesday 7th July. A group 1 run over a mile for fillies of 3 and older, it is the first chance to see the female Classic generation take on their older rivals.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Wins-Places-Runners)
| W | P | R |
3yo | 5 | 9 | 51 |
4yo | 3 | 3 | 21 |
5yo | 2 | 1 | 8 |
6yo+ | 0 | 3 | 5 |
3yos (5-9-51) have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 60% of total runners.
4yo+ (5-7-34) have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 40% of total runners.
Recent Form
8 of 10 winner achieved career highest RPR in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run between 1 and 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile
9 of 10 winners had won at listed level or better (exception placed in a group 1)
4 of 6 winners had won a group 1 since 2004, when this race became a group 1
6 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (2 Coronation Stakes, 1 Sandringham, Royal Hunt Cup, Windsor Forest & Queen Anne)
3 of 10 winners ran in France on their previous start
Since race became a group 1 all 3yo winners had won a listed/group race as a 2yo
Other Races
Coronation Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 22 (0-2-2)
Dahlia Stakes winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 732 (0-2-3)
English 1000 Guineas winner (Special Duty): 2 (0-1-1)
Nell Gwyn winner (Music Show): 8542 (0-1-4)
Windsor Forest Stakes winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 63643 (0-1-5)
Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner (Anatara): 563796 (0-1-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 56
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Du Moulin, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's QEII, finishing 56
3 of 5 winners aged 3 finished in first 5 in either the French or English 1000 Guineas
Trainers
James Fanshawe (3-1-9) has trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years. All his winners were aged 4+ (3-1-6), his three 3yo runners were all unplaced.
Mark Johnston (1-1-2) has saddled a winner and a second from 2 runners in this in the past decade.
No other trainer with an entry this year has trained the winner in the past 10 years but Michael Stoute (0-3-7), John Gosden (0-2-7) and Mick Channon (0-2-8) have each saddled multiple placed finishers,
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off 6/1 or shorter
No major trend on prices, the one big shock was Rajeem winning at 50/1 in 2006.
Favourites (4-2-11) have a fair record in this race, winning 4 of the last 10 renewals. They show a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4+ (or 3yo who’d won a group race as a 2yo)
· Run 1 to 4 times this season and ran in last 60 days
· Achieved highest RPR in last two outings
· Won a group 1
· Won over a mile
· Had last run at Royal Ascot or in France
· Trained by James Fanshawe or Mark Johnston
The horse to take them on must be Spacious - she has all the profile stats for this race - has only two runs this season and each one improved on the last --She has been trained for this race only Fanshaw and Fallon have to be the dream team in this race --- beaten by StrawberryDaiquir that day - ascot 1m g/frm 160610 2nd run of campaign Spacious won this race last season and has twice been Group 1 placed. She had the beating of the winner on Sun Chariot form and looked likely to confirm it when coming to challenge approaching the final furlong, but could not get past the winner hard as she tried. She will presumably renew rivalry later in the season.her sire Nayef was arguably at his peak as a five-year-old - and there has to be a chance that she´ll finally live up to her potential this term and take a Group 1 race. There are a number of options at the top level for fillies like her nowadays, and the Falmouth looks the most obvious target in the short term.
The other horse is the 3 yr old Gile Na Greine 1 l behind Lilly Langtree at Ascot last run - racing on the heavily favoured stands´ side when just failing to get up at Newmarket, failed to run a race at the Curragh, beating only two home, but her trainer was prepared to put a line through that effort, and under a well-judged front-running ride, she came right back to her best, if anything surpassing the level of form shown at Newmarket. She appeals as the type to keep on improving with racing, as many from the yard often do, and she will no doubt be contesting similar races tothe winner in future, with a step up in trip likely.
RESULT 1 Music Show 13/2 2 Spacious 9/1 3 Rainfall 15/2 8 ran Distances: 2l, ¾l, 1l
----Spacious, beaten a length when third behind Goldikova in this race last year and just edged out by Strawberrydaiquiri in the Windsor Forest last time, was given every possible chance to win this. Always handy, she was sent to the front by Fallon at halfway and edged across to bag the inside rail. She kept battling hard and held most of her rivals at bay, but the winner´s turn of foot proved too much for her inside the last furlong. She has now made the frame five times from seven attempts at Group 1 level, but keeps finding success at this grade just beyond her.
Gile Na Greine, a close third behind Special Duty in the 1,000 Guineas and runner-up to Lillie Langtry in the Coronation Stakes, came off the bridle over 3f from home and gradually dropped right away. Despite her fine effort at Ascot, she may prefer an easier surface.
Bob t
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