Click to enlarge Image - have included the draw Bias for last 12 years over 1m2f and deleted all 6 year olds --

The John Smith’s Cup is one of the big Northern handicaps of the season and it takes place at York on Saturday 10th July. The race is run over a mile, two furlongs and 88 yards and is always a highly competitive affair.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	2	4	19
4yo	6	18	79
5yo	2	7	51
6yo	0	1	44

3 and 4 year olds have the best record, having won 8 of the 10 runnings and accounting for 75% of the places from just over half the total runners.

Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 place from 44 runners in the past 10 years.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-2-27

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-11-50

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-8-65

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-9-51

5 of 10 winners (last 4) carried 8-7 to 8-13

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-3-20

Top Weight: 9020874000000 (0-2-13)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 102 or more: 1-3-25

Horses rated 90 to 101: 9-18-107

Horses rated 89 or less: 0-9-61

9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 90 and 101 from 55% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 2 starts

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their previous 2 starts

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

8 of 10 winners (last 7) won or placed last time out

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions had been placed on their last two starts)

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 2F (1 exception had yet to run over further than a mile, other was placed over CD on previous start)

7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level (1 exception finished 2nd in listed handicap, another placed in 2 handicaps worth over 50K and other had won last 4 starts but yet to run higher than class 4)

Trainers

Richard Fahey (3-3-19) has won the race three times in the past 10 years, including 2 of the last 3 renewals.

Barry Hills (1-0-1) and Walter Swinburn (1-0-1) have also both saddled the winner of this race in the past decade.

Michael Stoute (0-5-10), Jeremy Noseda (0-3-8) and Michael Jarvis (0-2-5) have all saddled multiple placed finishers.

Draw

No very strong trends to be gleaned from the draw over the past 10 years.

Price

6 of 10 winners (last 3) were priced between 11/1 and 20/1

Favourites (3-4-13) have a fair record in this race having won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 3 or 4

· Carrying 8-7 to 8-13

· Officially rated 90 to 101

· Finished in the first 5 in a class 3 or higher last time out

· Finished 1st or 2nd on one of last two starts

· Won a race this season

· Won at class 2 or 3 level

· Won over 1M 2F

· Trained by Richard Fahey or Michael Stoute

Last year -- Sirvino won it well from the 16 box - came into the race well having won all of its four starts but was ignored by punters going off 16/1 - first three home were 4 yr olds from boxes 16 13 and 18

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Two Animals fit the required profile well - Fallons Forte Dei Marmi - 4 yr old with an improving profile for Cumani curently 8/1 betfair

the other is the long priced Desert Kiss out of the 18 box - similar to last years winner 28/1 betfair currently

The Top weight Distant Memories has a very good profile for this - top weights are to be wary of - but has excellent Place chance and big odds on Betfair at the moment at 11/2 for the place has not run on ground as quick as this and all form better with cut - the run last time class 2 showed he is in great form and won well from Oratory on good fast ground though this may have turned to fast by this afternoon (and Spencer has chosen to ride the other Tate runner )

good luck this afternoon - it should be a great race

BobT

post race - well the Stats were right and I was wrong the only 3 yr old in the race heres the stat "-3 and 4 year olds have the best record, having won 8 of the 10 runnings and accounting for 75% of the places from just over half the total" runners.

favvy won it again - The 3yos have made little impact since winning back-to-back runnings at the turn of the millennium, though they´ve hardly been strongly represented of late with just five runners in the last six years.

Only three of these were well in at the weights, with two of them, Imposing and WIGMORE HALL dominating the betting, and it was the latter, the only member of the younger generation in this contest, who came out on top by the narrowest of margins under his young claimer, though connections would have been nervous during the stewards´ enquiry as Martin Lane (received one-day ban for careless riding) did have his whip in the incorrect hand when the interference occurred.

The winner, due to race off 7lb higher in future, ran so well to finish third having met trouble in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot, and being able to make ground through runners in this big field on a spacious track certainly suited this strong-travelling hold-up performer. He didn´t get as fast a pace as he would have liked, having to work harder to make ground, but was always going forward and, having got to the front inside the final furlong, was just able to hold on. He has now won both starts in handicaps, but having taken this off 101, he will now have to return to Pattern company, where he is far less likely to get a double-figure field which suits so well.

hope you were on it onwards and upwards Bob