Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4
· 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
· Run in last 50 days
· Won a group 1
· Won over 1M 4F
· Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
· Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time
· Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2009
· Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
OK the horses that have the best record are 4 yr olds - no doubt about it and guess what - there are two running today and that's Darakana (filly)
She is a Group 1 winner and looked like an interesting runner coming into the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud 27th june - here are the racing post comments, "for this her second run of the season a tad disappointing and finished third for the second time since her win in Hong Kong in December. She raced towards the front of the field throughout, but never looked like getting to the front. Both defeats this year have come going left-handed and connections admitted before they had a concern about going this way round. She would be of more interest in the future if she is seen going right-handed again."
Against her are the stats for fillies -
All 4 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was Time Charter in 1983.
She was well beaten that day by Fabre horse ridden by Peslier -- but was only a nose behind Youmzain. She has beaten really good colts at Honkong and may be the filly that upsets the stats for the gender in this race.
The other 4yr old is Harbinger who my ratings are above Workforce for its run here in the Hardwick stakes - gave it 107 that day 1m4f G/frm ground Recent winners have been fairly evenly spread among the age groups but four-year-olds had a clear numerical advantage this time, and HARBINGER improved their record. After winning a Group 3 at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance, he had beaten subsequent Gold Cup runner-upAge Of Aquarius in the Ormonde next time. A well-backed odds-on favourite once his main rival Alainmaar was withdrawn in the morning, he won in straightforward fashion. That is really great form for horses for courses. that was a group 2 race and winners dont figure in the stats for winners of this race - I would not put you off backing this animal at all---
Seriously it is difficult to see beyond Workforce it beat the track record at Epsom in the derby and showed blinding speed - only chink I can see is its mouth and tendency to run left handed only time he went right handed was at Goodwood where he was green as grass and only got going after the bend- today he could be the bet more in running as he wont get the lead early and wont power till he is around the bend at Ascot - he does not want the ground to run faster than good for full effect
This is one of the best races of the season - if you are willing to look past the head carriage of the derby winner all he has to do for me is to win on quicker ground than he likes. Get ready to get a bet in before the bend ...
And I will be having a small punt on the filly - she will be the first one to upset the filly trends for a long time
I will be having forecasts for these three animals - abs love the race
hope this was an interesting read - good luck all today- the full stats are below
| Ascot 16:25 | |||
| 1st | 2.Harbinger | 5.06 | 4/1 |
| 2nd | 6.Cape Blanco (IRE) | 5.94 | 9/2 |
| 6 ran | |||
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