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The July Cup is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and it takes place at Newmarket on Friday 9th July. A group 1, run over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and older, it generally draws a high class international field and this year is no exception.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	3	5	45
4yo	2	7	47
5yo	4	6	32
6yo	1	0	17
7yo+	0	2	15

5 year olds have the best record, having won 4 of the 10 runnings from approximately 20.5% of the runners.

Horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-2-32.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners had run between 1 and 4 times that season

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (all 3 exception were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time out)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days

9 of 10 winners had previously won 6/7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit last year whose two previous runs at 6F had been seconds in a group 1 & group 2, both by less than a length)

9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception was 2nd in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, other 2 exceptions had finished 5th in group 1)

9 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (4 Kings Stand, 3 Golden Jubilee, 1 Jersey, 1 Queen Anne)

Other Races

Previous July Cup winner (Fleeting Spirit): 6 (0-0-1)

Palace House Stakes winner (Equiano): 371 (1-1-3)

Golden Jubilee Stakes winner (Starspangledbanner): 0720150 (1-1-7)

Temple Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): 23 (0-2-2)

Kings Stand Stakes winner (Equiano): 2270 (0-2-4)

Lightning Stakes winner (Nicconi): 270 (0-1-3)

Duke Of York Stakes winner (Prime Defender): 500608 (0-0-6)

Abernant Stakes winner (Equiano): 007960 (0-0-6)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 223302

3 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 516

3 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 222

2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 15

Trainers

Jeremy Noseda (1-1-6), Aidan O’Brien (1-1-12), James Fanshawe (1-0-3) and John Gosden (1-0-4) have all trained the winner of this once in the past 10 years.

Michael Stoute (0-2-5) and Barry Hills (0-2-11) has both managed to fill a couple of places in this race in the past decade.

Australian-based trainers (0-1-8) have gained just one place from 8 runners, despite the fact that they have saddled the favourite in 4 of the 6 years they have been represented.

Draw (excluding 2000 when only 10 runners) - NOTE THERE COULD BE SOME WITHDRAWN DOWN TO THIS NUMBER AND THE HIGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DRAW MAY NOT BE SO PRONOUNCED

Horses drawn in bottom 6 stalls: 1-3-54

Horses drawn in the middle: 2-7-38

Horses drawn in top 6 stalls: 6-8-54

There has been a definite bias to be drawn high in recent years with the last 7 winners coming from stall 9 or higher.

BUT !!! THERE COULD BE VALUE ON LOWER NUMBERS IF THE FIELD CUTS UP

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting

Not a particularly strong trends race as far as prices go with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at double-figure odds.

Favourites (3-2-11) have a fair record in this race having won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 3.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 3 to 5

· Ran in last 30 days

· Finished in the first 3 at Royal Ascot this year

· Placed in the Royal Stand and/or Abernant Stakes

· Won a group race

· Finished in the first 2 in a group 1

· Won over 6F or 7F

· Drawn in top 6 stalls

The King Stands Stakes show the highest trend figures - three horses ran in it this year Equiano won it well - on the king stands stakes 150610 - The first horse to regain the King´s Stand since Elbio in 1993, in the days when it was a Group 2, EQUIANO won this two years ago when trained in Spain by Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez. He struggled for a time to to find his form after joining Barry Hills, but a wind operation has paid off handsomely and he followed wins on the Rowley Mile in the Abernant and Palace House this spring with a second to Kingsgate Native in the Temple Stakes. Drawn two, he almost blew things at the startwhen stumbling badly, but he recovered very quickly and showed fine speed to make just about all the running nearest the stands´ fence, running on strongly and never being seriously challenged.

the others are - Nicconi - 4th to Equianon in the King stands under Dettori 150610 - Slowly into stride, raced off the pace, not clear run 2f out, soon switched left, progress over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, going on at finish but not pace to reach leaders (op 3-1 tchd 11-4) had previously beaten Star Spangled banner over 5flngs coming from behind and winning going away in the last 100yds - they sais they would retire him after that race but obv think there is some prize money here today

Kingsgate Native ascot kings stands stakes 150710 started favvy - had Equiano behind when winning the Temple, his first start since a gelding operation. Always in midfield, he was not given a hard time after being buffeted by Amour Propre over a furlong out but ran on nicely enough

the win by Starspangledbanner in the Golden Jubilee - Quickly away, he was able to bag the stands´ rail in front in the early stages and made the best of his way home. It was obvious from some way out that he had his rivals on the nearside beaten off and the far-side group were behind too. impressive as hell

taking the draw into account - there is some merit in looking at the other side of the field and any money for Showcasing- Gosden and Blinkered first time is not to be discounted at all - its run at york in the was impressive - Few 3-y-os have contested this race in recent years but ran a race full of promise for the Classic generation. Impressive winner of the Gimcrack over this C&D last year, reports suggested that he was very much in need of this reappearance run, so in the circumstances this has to rate a very promising effort. He ran on really well from off the pace, should appreciate the stiffer test he´ll get at Newmarket and a player in the Golden Jubilee This was only his fifth ever start so one wouldimagine there´s plenty of improvement to come. he absolutely flopped in the Ascot race but did beat home Starspangeldbanner in the York race!

if there is one to upset the stats - this is the one indeed

its a great race - hope the above helps you pick thje winner

Bob