Irish Oaks - at the Curragh this afternoon at 3.40

Irish Oaks - at the Curragh this afternoon at 3.40

GOING: Round course - GOOD; Straight course - GOOD TO YIELDING

The Darley Irish Oaks takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 18th July. Last season's Epsom Oaks winner, Sariska, from the Michael Bell yard broke Aidan O’Brien’s domination of the race in 2009, and it this year’s Epsom Oaks winner, Snow Fairy, will also be attempting to do the double. Its a great contest.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (6 won)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 4 in Epsom Oaks)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days

6 of 10 winners won or placed in a group 1 (4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races Epsom Oaks winner (Snow Fairy): 1121 (3-1-4)

Record of horses placed in the Oaks: 5202440331513 (2-4-13)

May Hill Stakes winner (Polenator) Hibayaab 2nd : 02 (0-1-2)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Termagent): 9429 (0-1-4)

Prix De Diane winner (Sarafina): 5 (0-0-1)

Blue Wind Stakes winner (Akdarena Note lady Lupas and Dance On bye ran in that race): 34760 (0-0-5)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 411221 ( Snow Fairy - Also rans ---Meeznah nk second) - Remember When(3rd) - Akdarena (6th) - Awe Inspiring (8th)

3 of 10 (3 of last 4) ran in the Musidora, finishing 241

2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh last time, finishing 41 _(AKdarena and Crystal Gale)

Trainers

Irish trained runners: 5-7-73 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 2-1-46)

British trained runners: 4-10-32

French-trained runners: 1-1-2

Aidan O’Brien (3-6-27) has won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-3-10.

Jim Bolger (1-0-7) trained a winner in the past decade.

Price - 8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting & priced 11/2 or below.

Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days

· Won over at least 1M 2F

· Finished in first 4 in Epsom Oaks

· Won or placed in a group 1

· Trained in France or GB or by Aidan O’Brien

· From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 11/2)

the draw has been pretty significant 13 14 15 and 16 having a distinct advantage these animals are Lady Lupas - King Vintage -Dance on Bye - Miss Jean Brodie