The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes, run at Ascot on the 24th July, is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, it was historically a good acid test for Derby winners and it is good to see this year’s Derby winner, Workforce, entered to run. He will be the first Derby winner since 2003 to run in this race.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: these are early stats for your perusal and will be updated tomorrow and saturday
Age
| W | P | R |
3yo | 2 | 1 | 14 |
4yo | 8 | 7 | 43 |
5yo | 0 | 7 | 25 |
6yo+ | 0 | 2 | 11 |
8 of 10 winners (last 6) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past decade despite having accounted for just under 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby.
Gender
All 4 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was Time Charter in 1983.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions were having their first try at the trip)
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception was runner-up in a group 1 and won the Hardwicke by 6 lengths on previous start)
6 of 10 winners (last 4) had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race
Other Races
That season
Irish Derby winner (Cape Blanco): 11 (2-0-2)
Epsom Derby winner (Workforce): 13 (1-1-2)
Hardwicke Stakes winner (Harbinger): 31538 (1-1-5)
Dubai Sheema Classic winner (Dar Re Mi): 2220 (0-3-4)
John Porter Stakes winner (Harbinger): 363 (0-1-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 14121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Previous season's Prix Niel winner (Cavalryman): 1121 (3-1-4)
Previous season's Gordon Stakes winner (Harbinger): 51 (1-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix Niel, finishing 1121
4 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 1441
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners ran in the Japan Cup, finishing 46
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-0-12) has won this race 3 times in the last 10 years including 2 of the last 3.
Michael Stoute (2-4-13) trained the first 3 home last year and has a very strong hand in the race again this year.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-5-15) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 6 of his 15 runners make the frame.
Mick Channon (0-2-2) has saddled Youmzain to finish placed in this twice.
Price
8 of 10 winners (last 6) went off favourite.
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter, not a race to be looking for a big upset.
Favourites (8-0-10) show a level stakes profit of 6.81 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4
· 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
· Run in last 50 days
· Won a group 1
· Won over 1M 4F
· Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
· Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time
· Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2009
· Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
| 1116-067 |  |  22 | 5 | 9-7 111 | Richard Mullen Sir Michael Stoute56 | 94 | 124 |
| 2673-111 |  |  35 | 4 | 9-7 123 | Olivier Peslier Sir Michael Stoute56 | 124 | 136 |
| 3520-842 |  |  27 | 7 | 9-7 117 | Richard Hughes M R Channon63 | 132 | 132 |
| 421d53-14 |  | 21 | 5 | 9-4 120 | William Buick J H M Gosden60 | 130 | 130 |
| 54111-33 |  |  27 | 4 | 9-4 116 | Gerald Mosse A De Royer-Dupre | 116 | 125 |
| 6711-101 |  | 27 | 3 | 8-9 119 | C O'Donoghue A P O´Brien59 | 137 | 142 |
| 731-21 |  | 49 | 3 | 8-9 128 | Ryan Moore Sir Michael Stoute56 | 147 | 148 |
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