The Sussex Stakes Wednesday - superbe

These are my Ratings for the Sussex stakes --- click to enlarge

GOODWOOD 9am Wednesday

GOING: Straight course - GOOD; Round course - GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; watered; GoingStick 8.1) (Rail from 6f mark on the lower bend to Winning post dolled out approx 6yds, top bend dolled out 3yds increasing distances by approx 15yds) WEATHER (Sunny intervals)
STALLS Straight course - Stands' side; 1m 4f - Outside; Remainder - Inside; 2m 5f - Flag start

The Sussex Stakes is one of two group 1 races that take place during the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 27th July. It’s the highlight of Wednesday’s card and could last year’s winner Rip Van Winkle take on the St James Palace winner Canford Cliffs

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

	W	P	R
3yo	6	9	37
4yo	1	5	30
5yo	2	1	11
6yo+	1	2	8

6 of 10 winners were aged 3 and they have also filled 15 of 27 places from just 43% of the runners.

Recent Form

10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

9 of 10 winners had run between 3 and 5 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (two exceptions had finished 2nd and 3rd in a group 1 over 1M-1M2F)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won a group 3, one had yet to run in group 1, other two had finished 2nd & 3rd in a group 1)

8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Rip Van Winkle): 522 (0-2-3)

St James Palace Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 1314521 (3-2-7)

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Canford Cliffs): 3151 (2-1-4)

Previous season's Coventry winner (Canford Cliffs): 21 (1-1-2)

Previous season's Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 1 (1-0-1)

Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 66 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the St James Palace Stakes finishing 1211

4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 214

3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 221

2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53

4 of 6 winners aged 3 finished 1st or 2nd in St James Palace Stakes

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ finished 1st or 2nd in Queen Anne Stakes

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (4-4-19) has won the race 4 times in the past 10 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, though he has only saddled one older horse (Bach 7th in 2001). His first strings have a record of 4-4-10.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-9) has won the race twice in the past decade.

Richard Hannon (1-1-6) has gained 1 win, 1 second and 3 thirds from his 6 runners since 2000.

Price

9 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the bettingand were priced 15/2 or below.

Favourites (4-4-11) have a fair record in this race having won it 4 times in the last 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 2.52.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 3

· Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted highest RPR

· Run 3 to 5 times in 2010

· Run in last 55 days

· Won over a mile

· Won a group 1

· Finished in first 2 at Royal Ascot (St James Palace/Queen Anne)

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien

· From first 4 in the betting (15/2 or lower)

The three year olds in this race

624616-6

BEETHOVEN v 43

3

8-13 117

J P O'Brien A P O´Brien57

127

122

bay colt Oratorio (IRE) — Queen Titi (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA))

Surprise winner of last year´s Group 1 Dewhurst; wasn´t expected to be at peak of his powers (started 50-1)

and in circumstances ran really well when sixth of nine to Canford Cliffs in St James´s Palace Stakes last month and may be unwise to underestimate him.

713-2311

CANFORD CLIFFS 43

3

8-13 122

Richard Hughes R Hannon63

133

133

bay colt Tagula (IRE) — Mrs Marsh (Marju (IRE))

Has looked different horse when settling better on last two starts en route to stylish victories in Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James´s Palace Stakes, beating subsequent easy French Group 1 winner Dick Turpin at Royal Ascot; defeat in English Guineas due more to pulling fiercely early on than to not handling undulations and can go in again if jockey can get him switched off.

83615209

ENCOMPASSING 43

3

8-13 100

C O'Donoghue A P O´Brien57

99

106

bay colt Montjeu (IRE) — Sophisticat (USA) (Storm Cat (USA))

Capable in own right but employed as pacemaker when well beaten behind Canford Cliffs in Irish Guineas and long way adrift of same horse when unable to execute that role after slow start at Royal Ascot.

If your looking to beat the favs there are too many stats that say its a bad idea - BUT take a glimpse at Premio Loco - (6 yr olds have a solid chance in this race) - has won its last two runs and last win was at Ascot -

His telling turn of foot on a sound surface means he can boast a splended strike-rate and he has raised his game to a new level with Group 3 and Group 2 victories since return from Dubai; holds Dream Eater on this month´s Ascot form, has scored over thisC&D and should give a good account of himself without being good enough to win.