Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1999-2009):
Age
Race for 2yos
Gender
Colts: 4-12-118
Fillies: 6-9-115
Fillies have a slightly better record, having won 6 of the last 10 from slightly less than half the total runners.
Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 8.6 or lower
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner (exception was Chevalier who had just 3 career starts and was 2nd in a group 1)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) were by a sire who won or placed in group company as a 2yo (2 exceptions were by a sire who didn’t run as a 2yo, other was a by a sire who didn't run in a group race as a juvenile)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their racecourse debut
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had their last run in past 35 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won a race
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over no further than 5F
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (3 of 5 exceptions had not run in a listed/group race yet)
10 of 10 winners were born before the 18th April
Weight
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 1-1-15
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-7-75
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 5-9-109
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-4-34
No strong trend on weights, though all 10 winners carried at least 8-1 or more.
Other races
3 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mary, finishing 568
2 of 10 winners ran in the Norfolk Stakes, finishing 15
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes at Sandown, finishing 11
7 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (3 Queen Mary, 2 Norfolk, 1 Windsor Castle, 1 Coventry)
Trainers
Richard Hannon (4-5-43) has trained 7 of the 18 winners of this race since it began. He has saddled 4 of the last 7 winners and had a finisher in the first three in 9 of the last 10 years.
Tim Easterby (1-2-10), Bryan Smart (1-1-5) and Sylvester Kirk (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner once in the past decade.
Kevin Ryan (0-2-11) has had 4 runners in the past 3 runnings and all finished in the first 7.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 6: 3-4-60
Horses drawn 7 to 12: 2-7-60
Horses drawn 13 to 18: 3-5-60
Horses drawn 19 or higher: 2-4-56
There has been no significant draw bias in the past 10 runnings.
Price
7 of 10 winners went off at 10/1 or lower.
Not a strong trends race on prices with the last 4 winners going off at 2/1, 20/1, 9/1 and 100/1.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 4.00 since 1999.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group winner with a stamina index of 8.6 or lower
· Born before 18/04/2008
· Finished in the first 3 on debut
· Won a race over 5F (but no further)
· Had 2 to 5 runs this season & ran in past 35 days
· Ran at Royal Ascot
· Trained by Richard Hannon
early going news ---
NEWBURY - from the racing post at 9.30 am
GOING: GOOD (Good to soft in places; GoingStick 7.2) (Rail from the 9f to 5f has been moved in to give fresh ground.Rail will be moved overnight on Friday. The Round course will then be 18m longer than standard)
Latest ground report
Clerk of the course Richard Osgood says that no rain has fallen since 7.00pm yesterday. The total over the past 24 hours is 4.7mm.
He added that the ground remains good, good to soft in place. Giving more detail, he adds."The good to soft areas would be between the three furlong and two and a half furlong from home. There is also the odd patch down the back straight."
The Met Office forecast is for a shower around lunchtime, and then dry for the remainder of the afternoon.
Ok this is a puzzle - the Filly Dress Up ran in the Queen Mary stakes at Ascot -in the first three on debute ran within 35 days has had three runs and has won on g/sft at Chester -- is one quick lil filly-- only carries 7-12 --that's her only negative in the stats. have taken her to win money
The long outsider who may be interesting is Bathwick Bear - has put in some lightening runs - especially its debute on g/sft ground has only run 5flngs Evans is quoted as saying its the quickest horse he's got has been saddled with top weight and beaten but today gets in on a very good mark was second in a 13G race giving loads of weight away - have taken win and place money this dark horse
Hope this helps in a fascinating race
good luck today Bob
POST RACE This looked a good edition of the Super Sprint; typically competitive. There was only one non-runner, and that was Arctic Feeling, who was withdrawn at the start after spreading a plate. The runners were spread out almost the entire width of the course for much of the way, although the far rail was shunned throughout, and the main action ultimately took place middle to stands´ side. As such, this looked a tremendous effort from TEMPLE MEADS to win from stall one, with the next four home all drawn in double figures.
Not only did the winner overcome a seemingly unfavourable draw, but he had been off for 76 days since winning a red-hot maiden on debut at Newmarket (the third won a Listed race at this meeting a day earlier), with his trainer reportingbeforehand that "this was not the planned route". The time off meant he missed Royal Ascot (apparently had spots in his throat), and he came here as the least experienced of the 24 runners. So all things considered, he´s clearly a pretty smart colt.
Racing away from the pace, he was being niggled along before halfway, but he responded impressively to his rider´s urgings, coming under more vigorous pressure over 1f out, and was well on top by the time he edged towards the centre of the track late on.
Described by owner John Fretwell as "the best horse I´ve ever had", it´s likely Temple Meads will be aimed at the Gimcrack, with the sixth furlong likely to suit. In the slightly longer term, it wouldn´t surprise to see him end his campaign where it started, back at Newmarket for the Middle Park.
Bold Bidder, the winner of a maiden before following up in a nursery off an estimated mark of 80, had a light weight and showed tremendous speed up the middle of the track, only tiring near the line to be overhauled by a potential Group horse. Her natural pace should see her pick up black type over this trip as a juvenile.
Move In Time, not helped by a wide draw when down the field in the Coventry, couldn´t match the runner-up´s natural speed on this first run over 5f, but he stayed on towards up the middle of the track, suggesting a return to further will suit.
Mappin Time, fitted with blinkers for the first time, showed plenty of speed, racing enthusiastically close to the lead, and he kept on well for pressure. It wouldn´t surprise to see the headgear retained.
Dress Up, held in the Queen Mary, ran well, faring best of those who raced towards the stands´ side.
Shoshoni Wind, runner-up in a 6f Listed race latest, didn´t runbadly but, considering the early speed she showed on this return to the minimum trip, she could have been expected to finish even closer. She was one paced after coming off the bride, lacking the finishing pace of some of these and/or being unsuited by the ground (previously raced exclusively on fast).
Remotelinx, a maiden winner over this trip on the Lingfield turf last time, was given a patient ride and could make no impression, edging right near the line. The impression was that he´s a little better than he showed.
Both Fifth Commandment and Silence Is Bliss ran well without being up the class, while Reckless Reward disappointed, yet still fared best of Richard Hannon´s sextet. Niggled along before halfway, he found little when under more vigorous pressure and was nowhere near the form he showed when runner-up in the Norfolk. His draw was not ideal, and the ground might not have suited, but whatever, his connections think he now needs further.
Better could have been expected from Ballista, who looked smart when winning on debut and was dropping back in trip after being too keen last time, but he offered little.
Jaahiz, a winner over 6f on quick ground at York last time, was seemingly unsuited by these different condition
No comments:
Post a Comment