The Galway Plate is the highlight of the 7-day Galway Festival Wednesday 28th July, is run over 2M 6F and it is always a thoroughly competitive contest that never fails to excite.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
| W | P | R |
5yo | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6yo | 1 | 4 | 16 |
7yo | 4 | 8 | 45 |
8yo | 3 | 5 | 57 |
9yo | 2 | 6 | 47 |
10yo | 0 | 4 | 22 |
11yo+ | 0 | 2 | 22 |
9 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9, only exception was a Paul Nicholls 6yo.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 44 runners. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 20 years was Life Of A Lord, who was winning the race for a second consecutive year.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-8-46
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-21-164
9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years).
However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.
Top Weight: 0-3-11 (5700262740U)
All horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places from 11 runners
Official Ratings
Horses rated 136 to 160: 1-5-25
Horses rated 122 to 135: 7-16-123
Horses rated 105 to 121: 2-8-62
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 122 to 135
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners (last 3) won their last chase start
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (all 3 exceptions had not run over fences that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 17 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Ansar when winning his second Plate)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company
3 of 10 winners had won at Galway (one other had finished 2nd here & 5 of 6 others were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner: 5312 (1-2-4)
Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Killenaule Boy): 54P1 (1-1-4)
Galway Guinness Handicap Chase winner (Paco Jack): 100 (1-0-3)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (The Fonze): 0 (0-0-1)
Kerry National winner (Northern Alliance): P69 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Knight Frank Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Fitzpatrick Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 7P
2 of 10 winners ran in the grade 3 Grimes Hurdle last time out, finishing 14
Trainers
Christy Roche (2-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. His other 4 runners finished 6/22, 6/22, 8/20 & 6/20.
Dermot Weld (2-4-12) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 4 placed runners.
Liam Burke (1-0-1), Paul Nicholls (1-0-4) and Michael Hourigan (1-0-4) have each trained the winner once in the past 10 years.
Niall Madden (0-2-5) has saddled two placed finishers from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5) while Noel Meade (0-2-18) and Willie Mullins (0-1-9) have not done overly well in the race, gaining no wins and just 3 places from 27 combined runners.
British-based trainers (1-0-14) have seen only 1 of their 14 runners make the frame in the past 10 year. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.
Price
6 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot from year to year.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years. Level stakes loss of 3.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 to 9
· Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up g/f)
· Officially rated 122 to 135
· Won their last start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)
· Previously run in no more than 17 chases
· Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
· Run in a class 1 chase in 2010
· Second or third season chaser
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Trained by Christy Roche or Niall Madden
There are two outstanding trend animals this race --- The Last Derby 9/1 betfair -- is within the weights within the betting spectrum won its class 1 off a mark of 132 (made it 133) loves this ground has won 2m4f to 3miles and second season Chaser
the other is the twiston Davis runner Grand Slam Hero won the summer plate clas 1 at Market Rasen -- a real pointer to the seasons best English chasers
so an each way selection after dutching these two ? Weld Has two in it and his outsider Bobs Pride is in better form than most and was caught on the line last time over an inedaquate 2m1f (g/frm) 24/1 at time of posting ---
And would not put you off the place chances of Cuane Na Grai a very good animal who looks as if crying out for this distance
this is a great race and am pretty Confident of my two getting the frame
BobT
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