Tuesday 31 august Ripon 3.30

CITY OF RIPON HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) Winner £7,477ATR 
Good 1m1f170y Number of runners: 12
Going (at 1.30 pm)  Good G/frm in places 


this is the richest race of the day today and quite a historic race for the track 
 AGE - past winners 3 yr olds - 3 ---  4yr olds    4-----  5 yr olds   2-----  6 yr olds  1


PRICES   only 1 winner went of at more than double figures  (but only 2 winners were favourites
 and came in the last 2 years - )
their profile 
 Distant Memories in 2009 a 3 yr old - drawn 1 -  The three-year-olds dominated the betting and it was one of that trio that came out on top. drawn 12
Rose Street  in 2008 a 4 yr old (no 3 yr old runners that year) -  good handicap for the grade which was run at a sound pace.
resumed winning ways on this return from the all-weather and looked better the further she went on this step back up in trip drawn 7 . 

 previous years the favourite if a 3 yr old found it too tough 2007 ( only one 3 yr old (fav) fin 3rd) 

 2006  3 3 yr olds   2005  zero 3 yr olds  2004 3 3 yr olds  2003  1 3 yr old  2002  6 3 yr olds -- 2001  1 3 yr old  2000  6 3 yr olds 

previous form - a win looks essential and winning form at the track a plus - all winners have had a least one win 

Racing Post ratings -- only 1 horse has won this off a rating in excess of 100 the rest have ranged from 77 to 99

Weights - don't be scared of weight carrying in this - 6 winners have carried more than 9-1 and two of those carried 9-10 

Draw - this seems a most significant trend with  3 winners coming from the 9  one from 6 one from 7 one from 8  one from 12 --- drawn 1/3/4 have won it only once each therefore the percentage call  for this particular race must be from the middle to high boxes - and this goes against the trend of Ripon 1m1f races which favour the 1/2/3 box over the whole 5 yr period  and that is regardless of the ground being g/frm to g/soft 

today there is only one 3 yr old and current favourite -  Be Invincible drawn 11  the highest mark it has won off is 77 though it went close to todays figure of 88 last time at york. does have a matching profile for this race previous winners 

horses with previous win course form are - Granston (9yr old) drawn 8   and a decent place chance well handicapped on past form but age does not fit the win trends 

Fastnet Storm(4 yr old  drawn 10) ridden by N Callan who has a 22% strike rate this track - out of rock of Gibralter  has all the stats for a win today  running off an Or that he has achieved in the past and 1 lb wrong since last win  Cd winner means a lot well drawn and front runner will do for me 

  good luck all 

 Bob
Result 
AILSA CRAIG, a bit below par when making the running on slow ground over C&D latest, settled just in behind the speed this time and saw her race out much better, leading over 1f out and staying on well. This was her third victory of the season and she´s clearly still on the up. This one escaped me had run a decent race at ripon last time but not to this mark 4 yr old from the 12 box had won three races and sat well in the profile but this was a brill run for it

The front-running Fastnet Storm, who ran a blinder at Beverley last time, was off the same mark here and ran every bit as well, just finding the one too strong. the run was all that i expected except the win unfortunately Granston, too keen over 1m4f atAscot last time, needs a decent gallop at this distance and he returned to something like his best, keeping on well to not be beaten far.backed in the place market and a good dividend 


Be Invincible proved most disappointing considering he had run so well off only 3lb lower in a competitive handicap at York last time, finding little and stopping quickly. once again the fav with the best profile got beaten


 profit on the race and trends though not giving us the winner like the last two analysed  (see below) stood up well 

Galway 6.30 hottest race of the day for prize money

ARDILAUN HOTEL OYSTER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (3yo+) Winner €34,125ATR 

Good To Firm 1m4f : 8 Run 


Best prize of the day this is a pretty competitive race 


 AGE though it is for 3 yr olds plus the race over the last twelve years has been won by the minimum age animals 5 out of the 12 runnings and the last four races- as they still have a significant weight allowance 
with the 4 year old four times 
5 6 and 7  yr olds have won it  once a piece 

 John Oxx has been the most successful trainer  with his three year olds (3) and 4(1)  but today does not have an  entry.
Obrien has won 2 of the last ten with a 3 yr old and a 7 yr old
Weld has won it once with the 4 yr old in 2002 at 9/2 ( not fav)

 Racing post ratings for this race show that 9 winners has to have achieved a  minimum mark of 100+ only one winner had less and that won at 25/1 off a mark of  98 -- that was A shock outcome when outsider ROYAL DEVOTION held the fast-finishing Orpington by a rapidly diminishing half-length. Successful in a Listowel 10f maiden nearly 12 months ago on a soft surface, this effort certainly justified her connections decision to keep her in training as a four-year-old. 
 two runners today have not made that mark - Dance on by and Syann 
the one on the minimum mark of 100 is Awe Inspiring 


 Draw - the top numbers run well here and stalls 6 7 8 have the call 


Prices 
 majority of winners have been in single figures with only two winning from from double figures  with favourites winning only twice.
Previous races - of late the 3 yr olds have won one race in their career and won on the back of a second in group three class 1 last time out ---


 this brings in -- Leo Gali  second last time when swerving badly  at Cork - her speed figures are not inspiring and expect money for it but if going fav will be a lay for me. 


 Weld horse does not inspire either Address Unknown - hooded at stalls and blinkered again today is a bit of a monkey and ground looks on quick side currently favourite but an iffy horse (has the highest average speed figure) Weld has a strike rate of 25% from 145 runners which is impressive)

 Rajik is an old handicapper who stays and stays  but has a solid profile  of recent wins especially over 1m4f in a premier handicap  here at Galway - Joseph O´Brien has come into his own continued here as he produced a very strong ride on RAJIK to win this competitive handicap going away. Breaking at the rear of mid-division, he began to stay on as they ran downhill to the dip. It waswhen his rider got after him and the horse met the rising ground that he really began to motor and he ran on strongly as a good horse should. A horse who is no stranger to competitive handicaps, this represented a welcome return to his best. this for a handicapper is the best profiled horse in the race 


 So to O'Brien animals ( is top trainer this track this race having a 26% strike rate from only 55 runners - not a track he is frequently at)  for me -Dance On By  yesterday Heffernen booted home the winner for us - Ticked all the boxes except not being favourite  - similar today - has won  only a fillies maiden  and a course and distance winner on G/frm ground Not a particularly strong maiden but a competitive one, with three of the leading stables represented.DANCE ON BY looks pretty well-exposed at this stage but she travelled really well here and won snugly. Sean Levey was content to settle her in from her wide draw and she got a nice posse in behind the leaders.  The big danger for the winner in the dip was that she would not get a run, as she was tanking but trapped in beside the struggling leaders. However, once the gap appeared, Levey found it andshe was never really going to get caught she does not have the class win nor is she in single figures and certainly does not figure in the racing post ratings - she has to be backed down quite a bit - place market on betfair should be a decent option
 Murtagh is on the chosen mount from the yard Awe Inspiring and is one of those in and out animals  is the highest tried of the two and has done nothing on the track over this distance winning only once at cork.

 good luck


 Bob
 Great win for the trends and backed it big too
  

The Moyglare Stud Stakes takes places at the Curragh  today Sunday 29th August. It is the first group 1 for 2yo fillies run in Ireland. It has been won by Aidan O’Brien 4 times in the last 10 years but he has not won it since 2005. the ground is currently GOOD TO FIRM 

 Aidan O’Brien Has Four runners  out of the 12 standing their ground and his son is on Why  

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: 

Age

Race for 2yos

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were sired by horse that won as a 2yo

6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (3 of 4 exceptions contested a group 1)

9 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (exception was runner-up in a group 1)

4 of 10 winners were by Danehill or a son of Danehill

3 of 10 winners were by Sadler's Wells or a son of Sadler's Wells

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception was a maiden)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 30 days

9 of 10 winners won or placed at listed level or higher (exception had run once, winning a maiden)

8 of 10 winners had previously won or been placed at the Curragh (both exceptions had yet to run at the track)

Other Races

Leopardstown EBF Fillies Stakes winner (Together): 918131 (3-1-6)

Debutante Stakes winner (Long Lashes): 7171813 (3-0-7)

Ballanchine Stakes winner (Seeharn): 224 (0-2-3) NOn Runner

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Together): 297 (0-1-3)

Albany Stakes winner (Memory): 0 (0-0-1)

Cherry Hinton winner (Memory): 0 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in Debutante Stakes last time, finishing 221311

3 of 10 winners ran in the EBF Fillies Stakes at Leopardstown in June, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Splash Stakes, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in Albany Stakes, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in Phoenix Stakes, finishing 31

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (4-3-19) has won the race 4 times in the last 10 years. If you focus only on his first strings, his record improves to 4-1-8.

Kevin Prendergast (2-2-12) has trained 2 winners and two runners-up in the last 5 years, the only year in the past 5 that he didn’t train 1 of the first 2 he had no runner. Runs Kissable

Jim Bolger (1-2-20) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race in the past decade. Runs Palinade 

British-trained runners (1-4-19) have gained just 1 winner in the past 10 years from 19 runners (8 of which went off 5/1 or shorter).

Price

5 of the last 10 favourites have won this but 2 of the last 4 winners were priced 14/1 & 16/1

Backing the favourite (5-3-10) shows a level stakes profit of 3.79 since 2000.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 winner who won as a 2yo

·         Ideally by Danehill, Sadler’s Wells or a son of either

·         Finished in the first 3 last time, posting highest RPR

·         Ran in last 30 days

·         Won over 6F or 7F

·         Won or placed in a listed or group race

·         Won or placed at the Curragh

·         Finished in the first 3 in the Debutante Stakes

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Kevin Prendergast

·         Favourite does well in this


 Addendum ---  of the runners - Money is coming for Wild Wind today out of the O Brien lot, hard to pick out the best of his (Considering that she beat Laughing Lashes by a short head last time out then she is probably overpriced at 10/1)
Murtagh has chosen to ride Together, the maiden she won at leopardstown is usually a good guide for this. 10/1 looks a good ew bet about her
Prendergast said Seeharn would not run in this. Said he was hopeful of a big run from Kissable

AIDAN O'BRIEN can draw on past experience when preparing Misty For Me for victory in the  Moyglare Stud Stakes. O'Brien  trained the sire  Galileo and while her dam, the Storm Cat mare Butterfly Cove was unraced, the Ballydoyle maestro also campaigned Butterfly Cove's half-brother Fasliyev, the champion juvenile of 1999, and her full-sister Kamarinskaya, winner of the Group 3 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown.

Third dam Anne Campbell is a Grade 1 winner and matriarch of a host of American black-type winners. This is also the family of Golden Jubilee and July Cup winner Les Arcs.

 The draw should favour the following runners (any order) - WHY - WILD WIND -LAUGHING LASHES - NEGOTIATE
GATAMALATA -

WORST DRAW WILL BE (ANY ORDER - PALINODE-  KISSABLE - TOGETHER - LITEFOOTSTEPS 

NO DRAW ADVANTAGE OR DISADVANTAGE - MISTY FOR ME ridden by Obriens big race jockey Heffernean will do for me in this race 


 great win for the trends - Misty for me ticked all the boxes apart from the favourite stat and backed big

The Group 2 Totesport.com Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday, 28th August

Such a shame this brilliant Race has cut up so badly Not Sure that Trends for a race of this nature are valid with the ground as it is forecast. but here they are anyway as they simply are compiled year on year

The ground is forecast to be drying out but still soft - even though it remains fresh ground since the glorious goodwood meeting it will still get some getting

Here's the stats

The Group 2 Totesport.com Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday, 28th August, is the big race in Britain this coming weekend. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Last year Delegator won the race but was later disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample. From a trends perspective we are counting Delegator as last year’s winner.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	4	5	27
4yo	1	4	18
5yo	4	1	11
6yo+	1	2	10

5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).

3yos have also taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 2, and all 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes.

Gender

Fillies and mares (3-0-6) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 6 to run in the race have been successful, though all 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute.

Only One Filly today and that's Summer Fete -runs well with cut - Mr Fallon has the ride - Record of females aged 4+: 1151 (3-0-4)

Record of females aged 3: 44 (0-0-2)

Weight

Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 543 (0-0-3)

Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season (Poets Voice has run only once)

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (Only Poets Voice meets this criteria)

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or further

8 of 10 winner had won a group 3 or listed race (2 exceptions were placed in group 1 or 2 races)

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2

6 of 10 winners were placed in a group 1 in the past 12 months (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 331 (1-0-3)

Jersey Stakes winner (Rainfall): 2 (0-1-1)

Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 32 (0-1-2)

4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 3522

4 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 3202

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

Trainers

Michael Stoute (5-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3 female winners of the race.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06 and ’09 (later disqualified).

Marcus Tregoning (1-0-1) won this race in 2003 with his only runner in the past decade.

Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners have been unplaced.

Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting ( NOT DIFFICULT NOW THERE ARE ONLY FOUR DECLARED)

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1

favourites do not have a great record.

Favourites (3-3-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· 3yo who finished in the first 5 in St James Palace or age 5

· Filly/mare aged 4+ trained by Michael Stoute

· Carrying no penalty

· Finished in the first 3 last time out

· Won over 7 furlongs or further

· Won at listed/group 3 (but no higher) and placed in group 1

· Ran in the Sussex or Hungerford Stakes last time out (Summer Fete)

· Trained by Stoute or Bin Suroor

· From first 4 in the betting Yeah Right!

So this is not a trends race to follow today - it has hardly ever been run on anything worse than g/soft so that no clue to the price

The favs have some question marks to answer - either ground or staying the mile are iffy at the prices quoted

of the outsiders Hannon has always maintained his old handicapper needs cut to be most effective.

The Filly Summer Fete is too my mind the greatest improver for the race - does not carry a penalty and ran in the key race the Hungerford, she just could not compete in that grade 2 on her second run back.

Had won 7flngs on g/sft and a group 3 Fillies stakes goodwood over 7flngs - She does handle Soft ground well.

Difficult to give a draw bias with only 4 runners but stall 4 will give a slight advantage in this ground.

She has size and scope looking like a big raw colt

Fallon is riding out of his skin and only her recent form makes her this tempting 10/1 price

as I say a hard race but the value for me for small stakes has to be the filly

have a great days punting

Bobt

Please read the comments below on this race and if you have time please go to the survey on my blog will only take you a minute to complete - thanks Bob