The Group 2 Totesport.com Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday, 28th August

Such a shame this brilliant Race has cut up so badly Not Sure that Trends for a race of this nature are valid with the ground as it is forecast. but here they are anyway as they simply are compiled year on year

The ground is forecast to be drying out but still soft - even though it remains fresh ground since the glorious goodwood meeting it will still get some getting

Here's the stats

The Group 2 Totesport.com Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday, 28th August, is the big race in Britain this coming weekend. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Last year Delegator won the race but was later disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample. From a trends perspective we are counting Delegator as last year’s winner.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	4	5	27
4yo	1	4	18
5yo	4	1	11
6yo+	1	2	10

5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).

3yos have also taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 2, and all 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes.

Gender

Fillies and mares (3-0-6) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 6 to run in the race have been successful, though all 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute.

Only One Filly today and that's Summer Fete -runs well with cut - Mr Fallon has the ride - Record of females aged 4+: 1151 (3-0-4)

Record of females aged 3: 44 (0-0-2)

Weight

Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 543 (0-0-3)

Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season (Poets Voice has run only once)

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (Only Poets Voice meets this criteria)

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or further

8 of 10 winner had won a group 3 or listed race (2 exceptions were placed in group 1 or 2 races)

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2

6 of 10 winners were placed in a group 1 in the past 12 months (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 331 (1-0-3)

Jersey Stakes winner (Rainfall): 2 (0-1-1)

Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 32 (0-1-2)

4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 3522

4 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 3202

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

Trainers

Michael Stoute (5-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3 female winners of the race.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06 and ’09 (later disqualified).

Marcus Tregoning (1-0-1) won this race in 2003 with his only runner in the past decade.

Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners have been unplaced.

Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting ( NOT DIFFICULT NOW THERE ARE ONLY FOUR DECLARED)

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1

favourites do not have a great record.

Favourites (3-3-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· 3yo who finished in the first 5 in St James Palace or age 5

· Filly/mare aged 4+ trained by Michael Stoute

· Carrying no penalty

· Finished in the first 3 last time out

· Won over 7 furlongs or further

· Won at listed/group 3 (but no higher) and placed in group 1

· Ran in the Sussex or Hungerford Stakes last time out (Summer Fete)

· Trained by Stoute or Bin Suroor

· From first 4 in the betting Yeah Right!

So this is not a trends race to follow today - it has hardly ever been run on anything worse than g/soft so that no clue to the price

The favs have some question marks to answer - either ground or staying the mile are iffy at the prices quoted

of the outsiders Hannon has always maintained his old handicapper needs cut to be most effective.

The Filly Summer Fete is too my mind the greatest improver for the race - does not carry a penalty and ran in the key race the Hungerford, she just could not compete in that grade 2 on her second run back.

Had won 7flngs on g/sft and a group 3 Fillies stakes goodwood over 7flngs - She does handle Soft ground well.

Difficult to give a draw bias with only 4 runners but stall 4 will give a slight advantage in this ground.

She has size and scope looking like a big raw colt

Fallon is riding out of his skin and only her recent form makes her this tempting 10/1 price

as I say a hard race but the value for me for small stakes has to be the filly

have a great days punting

Bobt

Please read the comments below on this race and if you have time please go to the survey on my blog will only take you a minute to complete - thanks Bob