post race great St Wilfred

Post Race the great St Wilfred --140810 analysis 3:30 - William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap) 6f, Class 2, £40,501.50

1 Damika 18/1
2 Tajneed 3/1F
3 Signor Peltro 16/1
4 Rileyskeepingfaith 15/2

NR: Noverre To Go (IRE), Shifting Star(IRE), Wildcat Wizard (USA)

- showed a complete reversal of the stats for the last ten years and as such showing a different targeting by top trainers. - The first three home were seven year old's Most of these have been clashing or will be coming up against each other during this season. The difference between defeat and success in these big sprints can often depend on how much of a clear run you get and whether you´re drawn on the right side at some courses. Ripon can often have a favoured rail when the going is on the easy side, which was borne out in this year´s renewal. However, this looked a clean contest with regards to problems in running, so the form should be fairly reliable.

DAMIKA has enjoyed a mainly consistent season and collected a couple of victories back in May. By no means the quickest away, he sat in behind when back on an even keel and cut down the runner-up inside the final half-furlong.
Connections pointed to the fact that the winner enjoys ground with ease in it, and thought that had played to his strengths. The Portland Handicap and Ayr Gold Cup are obvious targets, but the trainer also mentioned that he would not mind finding a race for him in France if he could, because the going is likely to be ideal over there.

Tajneed, the winner of this race in 2008 off a 2lb lower mark, and defending an unbeaten three-from-three record at this course, broke smartly and was soon in front rank. He ran right up to his best but was mugged late on by the fast-finishing Damika.

Signor Peltro, whose trainer supplied last year´s winner Markab off a similar official rating, appeared to be travelling well in behind a wall of horses and may have been slightly unlucky not to have played a bigger part in the finish, as he needed switching into space to make an effort.

Rileyskeepingfaith, a solid fourth in the Stewards´ Cup last time, was at the rear of his group with about two furlongs to go but kept on well to pass plenty of his rivals in the latter stages.

so apart from note booking Damika (and I only discounted this good horse on the age stats anyway ) what does it do to the trends?

age (Win-Place-Runners) for 11 years

	W	P	R
3yo	0	3	11
4yo	4	9	62
5yo	2	11	58
6yo	3	4	40
7yo	2	5	31
8yo+	0	1	25

17 runners yesterday with the majority 7 year old in the race could make this a change in trends as they never particularly aimed this race before ( last year there were three 6 yr olds in the frame) will see the make up of next years race but trainers are looking at their older and therefore stronger animals.

Candy showed the strongest trend with Senor Peltro - he targets the track well with few runners 25% from 4 runners

Damika was running off a very good mark (had beaten Tajneed on g/soft of 94) at hamilton 6flns and ran to it again today

Tajneed recent form was not hot form and layed it as blogged but gave me a fright running a very decent race

Note for next year --- after the race I recalc the stats on the last four runnings rather than my usual 14 runs -- the order of fitness track and ground made Damika second rated behind the 3 year old Lowdown The stats for 3 yr olds not winning this race was upheld. This made Damika the top of the analyser runners

- Next year set the analysis to last 4 runs and continue with the trends as above

And well done to the guys who had already spotted the trend for older horses - Colin for his choice of Senor Peltro and racecaller for the strong Support of Damika

Bob T