The Moyglare Stud Stakes takes places at the Curragh  today Sunday 29th August. It is the first group 1 for 2yo fillies run in Ireland. It has been won by Aidan O’Brien 4 times in the last 10 years but he has not won it since 2005. the ground is currently GOOD TO FIRM 

 Aidan O’Brien Has Four runners  out of the 12 standing their ground and his son is on Why  

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: 

Age

Race for 2yos

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were sired by horse that won as a 2yo

6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (3 of 4 exceptions contested a group 1)

9 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (exception was runner-up in a group 1)

4 of 10 winners were by Danehill or a son of Danehill

3 of 10 winners were by Sadler's Wells or a son of Sadler's Wells

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception was a maiden)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 30 days

9 of 10 winners won or placed at listed level or higher (exception had run once, winning a maiden)

8 of 10 winners had previously won or been placed at the Curragh (both exceptions had yet to run at the track)

Other Races

Leopardstown EBF Fillies Stakes winner (Together): 918131 (3-1-6)

Debutante Stakes winner (Long Lashes): 7171813 (3-0-7)

Ballanchine Stakes winner (Seeharn): 224 (0-2-3) NOn Runner

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Together): 297 (0-1-3)

Albany Stakes winner (Memory): 0 (0-0-1)

Cherry Hinton winner (Memory): 0 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in Debutante Stakes last time, finishing 221311

3 of 10 winners ran in the EBF Fillies Stakes at Leopardstown in June, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Splash Stakes, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in Albany Stakes, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in Phoenix Stakes, finishing 31

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (4-3-19) has won the race 4 times in the last 10 years. If you focus only on his first strings, his record improves to 4-1-8.

Kevin Prendergast (2-2-12) has trained 2 winners and two runners-up in the last 5 years, the only year in the past 5 that he didn’t train 1 of the first 2 he had no runner. Runs Kissable

Jim Bolger (1-2-20) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race in the past decade. Runs Palinade 

British-trained runners (1-4-19) have gained just 1 winner in the past 10 years from 19 runners (8 of which went off 5/1 or shorter).

Price

5 of the last 10 favourites have won this but 2 of the last 4 winners were priced 14/1 & 16/1

Backing the favourite (5-3-10) shows a level stakes profit of 3.79 since 2000.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 winner who won as a 2yo

·         Ideally by Danehill, Sadler’s Wells or a son of either

·         Finished in the first 3 last time, posting highest RPR

·         Ran in last 30 days

·         Won over 6F or 7F

·         Won or placed in a listed or group race

·         Won or placed at the Curragh

·         Finished in the first 3 in the Debutante Stakes

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Kevin Prendergast

·         Favourite does well in this


 Addendum ---  of the runners - Money is coming for Wild Wind today out of the O Brien lot, hard to pick out the best of his (Considering that she beat Laughing Lashes by a short head last time out then she is probably overpriced at 10/1)
Murtagh has chosen to ride Together, the maiden she won at leopardstown is usually a good guide for this. 10/1 looks a good ew bet about her
Prendergast said Seeharn would not run in this. Said he was hopeful of a big run from Kissable

AIDAN O'BRIEN can draw on past experience when preparing Misty For Me for victory in the  Moyglare Stud Stakes. O'Brien  trained the sire  Galileo and while her dam, the Storm Cat mare Butterfly Cove was unraced, the Ballydoyle maestro also campaigned Butterfly Cove's half-brother Fasliyev, the champion juvenile of 1999, and her full-sister Kamarinskaya, winner of the Group 3 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown.

Third dam Anne Campbell is a Grade 1 winner and matriarch of a host of American black-type winners. This is also the family of Golden Jubilee and July Cup winner Les Arcs.

 The draw should favour the following runners (any order) - WHY - WILD WIND -LAUGHING LASHES - NEGOTIATE
GATAMALATA -

WORST DRAW WILL BE (ANY ORDER - PALINODE-  KISSABLE - TOGETHER - LITEFOOTSTEPS 

NO DRAW ADVANTAGE OR DISADVANTAGE - MISTY FOR ME ridden by Obriens big race jockey Heffernean will do for me in this race 


 great win for the trends - Misty for me ticked all the boxes apart from the favourite stat and backed big