The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the most valuable race to be run at Ripon all season and it takes place today 14th August. It is run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older it is always a very hotly contested handicap, the winning distance for the last 3 years has been a neck or shorter.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	0	3	9
4yo	4	8	59
5yo	2	11	54
6yo	3	4	39
7yo	1	3	26
8yo+	0	1	23

9 of 10 winners were aged 4 to 6

Horses aged 7 or above have a poor combined record of 1-4-49

The last winning 3yo was Pipalong in 1999; she went on to win at group 1 level.

Weights

Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 6-16-107

Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 4-14-113

Higher weights have held the edge in recent years with 6 of the last 7 winners carrying 8-12 or more.

Top Weight: 004000000072 (0-2-12)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or higher: 0-2-17

Horses rated 91 to 100: 6-10-82

Horses rated 90 or less: 4-18-111

6 of the last 7 winners were officially rated between 91 and 100.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions were placed on last 2 runs and placed in Stewards Cup last time out)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in past 20 days

9 of 10 winners had won over at least 6 furlongs

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

4 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket last time out

3 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time out

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 6030 (0-1-4)

Stewards' Sprint winner (Joseph Henry): 20 (0-1-2) this race brings in

Tiddlywinks --is a multiple winner on Polytrack but ran well in a hot sprint at York last time. He raced on the near rail early - which was not the place to be - but then switched to come more towards the centre and would have gone close had he been in that group from the start. His turn is not far away and the Portland is on the agenda.

Wildcat Wizard ---had not won since his second start back in 2008 but ran well in a couple of decent races this spring before finishing last on his two most recent starts. He looked unlucky as he had to be switched round a wall of horses over a furlong out before finishing strongest of all. If he can repeat this there is a decent sprint in him.

Lowdown - M Johnston horse did nothing much in this race went off 8/1 raced up the favoured cntre in touch most of way ridden and struggled final furlong and well held - was backed from 11s

Scottish Stewards' Cup winner (Lowdown): 50 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0404

there are a host of decent animals ---Rileyskeepingfaith finished his race off strongly, having been held up in the centre of the track, and is another for whom the Ayr Gold Cup looks a suitable target. That race often suits a horse who stays 7f, and he handles easier ground, too.

Noverre To Go came out second-best on the far side, running a fine race considering the morning rain and watering over the previous days would not have been in his favour. There´s still a decent handicap to be won with him when he gets his favouredfast ground.

Advanced - ran better than in his two previous attempts in this race. He ran well in the Great St Wilfrid off this mark last year, and Ripon´s highlight looks the way to go with him again.

Johannes, along with the others who raced close to the stands´ side, can have his effort upgraded slightly, due to him racing on what looked the slowest part of the track.

Hitchens didn´t get a clear run next to the far-side rail and, once in the open, wasn´t knocked about in a lost cause. He shaped better than his finishing position suggests and is one to keep in mind as he´s on a fair mark based on his best form fromlast year.

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 04

2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 86

2 of 10 winners ran in GL Events handicap at 6f Newmarket, finishing 15

Trainers

Dandy Nicholls (2-9-41) has won the race twice before and has done well in this race in the past 6 years, filling 10 of the 24 places up for grabs. He has had 2 winners and 8 more placed from just 22 runners since 2004. Adrian Nicholls’ last 4 rides in the race have supplied a winner and 3 places.

Henry Candy (1-0-1) saddled Markab to win the race last year,(HAD FINISHED 4TH IN THE STEWARDS CUP) HAS THE OLDER animal Senor peltro today

while Mick Channon (0-3-10), has the well fancied Rilyskeepingthefaith who finished 4th in the goodwood stewards - like last year winner Markab)

( Tim Easterby (0-2-12) Favourite Girl is a mudlark winning her last three and Kevin Ryan (0-2-15) have all gained multiple places in the past decade.

Mark Johnston (0-0-3) and Richard Fahey (0-0-8) are two of the most successful trainers at Ripon but both have failed to saddle a runner in the frame in this since 2000.

Draw

Horses drawn in bottom half: 1-13-108

Horses drawn in top half: 9-17-102

Horses drawn 10 or higher have won the last 9 runnings of this race.

Price

The last 5 winners were sent off at 10/1 or shorter

The longest priced winner in the past decade has been 20/1, excluding the two winning favourites, all winners were priced between 8/1 and 20/1.

Favourites (2-4-11) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 to 6

· Carrying 8-12 or more

· Officially rated 91 to 100

· Run at least 3 times this season

· Won a race this season

· Ran in last 20 days in class 3 or higher

· Ran at Newmarket or Goodwood last time out

· Won over 6F or further

· Drawn in 10 or higher

· Trained by Dandy Nicholls (and ridden by Adrian Nicholls) -- but the favourite Tajneed (all the rave) does not hold enough of the trends to make it a good bet at the current price its a 7 yr old (Horses aged 7 or above have a poor combined record of 1-4-49) sure it has the better draw but its form this year is exaggerated in my book - biggest success of his career (off 2lb lower) in this race on softish ground two years ago has been beaten recently by a few of these

BETFAIR PAY OUT ON THE FIRST 4 HOME IN THIS RACE and that's where you should be looking for the value

my selections are Rilyskeepingthefaith Tiddlywinks -

and place market a def for Lowdown - has won on g/sft and 6flngs won the hamilton John smith stewards cup there from Damika by 3.5l is a c/d winner and though the 3 yr old's stats count against him can make the frame