Good 1m1f170y Number of runners: 12
Going (at 1.30 pm) Good G/frm in places
this is the richest race of the day today and quite a historic race for the track
AGE - past winners 3 yr olds - 3 --- 4yr olds 4----- 5 yr olds 2----- 6 yr olds 1
PRICES only 1 winner went of at more than double figures (but only 2 winners were favourites
and came in the last 2 years - )
their profile
Distant Memories in 2009 a 3 yr old - drawn 1 - The three-year-olds dominated the betting and it was one of that trio that came out on top. drawn 12
Rose Street in 2008 a 4 yr old (no 3 yr old runners that year) - good handicap for the grade which was run at a sound pace.
resumed winning ways on this return from the all-weather and looked better the further she went on this step back up in trip drawn 7 .
previous years the favourite if a 3 yr old found it too tough 2007 ( only one 3 yr old (fav) fin 3rd)
2006 3 3 yr olds 2005 zero 3 yr olds 2004 3 3 yr olds 2003 1 3 yr old 2002 6 3 yr olds -- 2001 1 3 yr old 2000 6 3 yr olds
previous form - a win looks essential and winning form at the track a plus - all winners have had a least one win
Racing Post ratings -- only 1 horse has won this off a rating in excess of 100 the rest have ranged from 77 to 99
Weights - don't be scared of weight carrying in this - 6 winners have carried more than 9-1 and two of those carried 9-10
Draw - this seems a most significant trend with 3 winners coming from the 9 one from 6 one from 7 one from 8 one from 12 --- drawn 1/3/4 have won it only once each therefore the percentage call for this particular race must be from the middle to high boxes - and this goes against the trend of Ripon 1m1f races which favour the 1/2/3 box over the whole 5 yr period and that is regardless of the ground being g/frm to g/soft
today there is only one 3 yr old and current favourite - Be Invincible drawn 11 the highest mark it has won off is 77 though it went close to todays figure of 88 last time at york. does have a matching profile for this race previous winners
horses with previous win course form are - Granston (9yr old) drawn 8 and a decent place chance well handicapped on past form but age does not fit the win trends
Fastnet Storm(4 yr old drawn 10) ridden by N Callan who has a 22% strike rate this track - out of rock of Gibralter has all the stats for a win today running off an Or that he has achieved in the past and 1 lb wrong since last win Cd winner means a lot well drawn and front runner will do for me
good luck all
Bob
Result
AILSA CRAIG, a bit below par when making the running on slow ground over C&D latest, settled just in behind the speed this time and saw her race out much better, leading over 1f out and staying on well. This was her third victory of the season and she´s clearly still on the up. This one escaped me had run a decent race at ripon last time but not to this mark 4 yr old from the 12 box had won three races and sat well in the profile but this was a brill run for it
The front-running Fastnet Storm, who ran a blinder at Beverley last time, was off the same mark here and ran every bit as well, just finding the one too strong. the run was all that i expected except the win unfortunately Granston, too keen over 1m4f atAscot last time, needs a decent gallop at this distance and he returned to something like his best, keeping on well to not be beaten far.backed in the place market and a good dividend
Be Invincible proved most disappointing considering he had run so well off only 3lb lower in a competitive handicap at York last time, finding little and stopping quickly. once again the fav with the best profile got beaten
profit on the race and trends though not giving us the winner like the last two analysed (see below) stood up well
Result
AILSA CRAIG, a bit below par when making the running on slow ground over C&D latest, settled just in behind the speed this time and saw her race out much better, leading over 1f out and staying on well. This was her third victory of the season and she´s clearly still on the up. This one escaped me had run a decent race at ripon last time but not to this mark 4 yr old from the 12 box had won three races and sat well in the profile but this was a brill run for it
The front-running Fastnet Storm, who ran a blinder at Beverley last time, was off the same mark here and ran every bit as well, just finding the one too strong. the run was all that i expected except the win unfortunately Granston, too keen over 1m4f atAscot last time, needs a decent gallop at this distance and he returned to something like his best, keeping on well to not be beaten far.backed in the place market and a good dividend
Be Invincible proved most disappointing considering he had run so well off only 3lb lower in a competitive handicap at York last time, finding little and stopping quickly. once again the fav with the best profile got beaten
profit on the race and trends though not giving us the winner like the last two analysed (see below) stood up well
1 comment:
great read robert and very well done on coming second
this m hills and his father barry must have a big target race plotted up when the big prize money races come round please keep them in mind ,when the decs coms out ...i will get back to you...this pair are definatley due big money gl for today
Post a Comment