Race for 2yos --- The Phoenix Stakes is the first group 1 race for 2yos run in Britain and Ireland this year. It takes place at the Curragh at 4.15 8th August. The race was formerly run at the now-closed Phoenix Park and then at Leopardstown but was moved to its current home in 2002 following the loss of the straight 6 furlong track at Leopardstown.
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (2 exceptions sired by a group 3 winner)
3 of 10 winners were by Danehill (Snow Mountain)
2 of 10 winners (last 2) were by Danehill Dancer, who won this in 1995 (Samuel Morse )
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (7 won)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times
6 of 10 winners (last 5) had won over CD (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first run at the track, other exception was 2nd in a group 3 over CD only previous run here)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception was a maiden)
7 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of 3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a group race, other had only run once, in a maiden)
8 of 10 winners were born before 1st April
Other Races
Anglesey Stakes winner (Dunboyne Express): 151233 (2-2-6)
Coventry Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 33222 (0-3-5)
Marble Hill Stakes winner (Samuel Morse): 235 (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 1111 (Samuel Morse is the only one that ran in this race and lost by Short Head)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey Stakes, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry, finishing 90 (Samuel Morse beaten by Strong Suite by 4 l)
2 of 2 winning fillies ran in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, finishing 12
4 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot
The 5 winners of the Coventry to run in this (4 of which went off favourite) have all been beaten.
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (8-6-28) has trained 8 of the last 10 winners, his runners have accounted for only 36.4% of the total runners.
Jim Bolger (1-0-3) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year that has trained the winner in the past decade.
British trained runners (0-5-15) have failed to win the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for 4 favourites in that time. The last winner trained abroad was in 1997, Princely Heir for Mark Johnston.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 4/1 or below
There have been 2 shocks in this race in the past 10 years, with Spartacus 16/1 in 2002 and Saoirse Abu 25/1 in 2007 both landing this prize. All other winners went off 4/1 or below.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.30.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Born before 01/04/2008
· Sired by a group 1 winner (ideally Danehill Dancer)
· Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
· Posted highest RPR last time
· Run 3 to 5 times this season
· Won a group race over 6F or 7F
· Won over CD
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien
· Priced 4/1 or below
Drawn low box even in a small field is a significant winning trend
The trends quite definitely say that Strong Suite is a lay animal - and have to say that Richard Hannon has not travelled over to Ireland - but has gone to Windsor) so the rest of the trends dont give anything other than the chances of the Heffernen Ride Samual Morse- place -- was ridden by Murtagh in the railway stakes and he has the pick of the Obrien animals ---he has chosen the second Fav Zoffany has all the blues in the Visual form Book --- cannot believe that a horse with the speed that it has shown that Samuel Morse is there as pacemaker and Heffrenen is a top jock so for me it has to be a combination forecast this race these three with the hope that Strong Suite does not win!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment