The Totesport Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day Ebor festival which starts on Tuesday 17th August. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged. The Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (1999-2009):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
| W | P | R |
3yo | 2 | 7 | 16 |
4yo | 2 | 12 | 86 |
5yo | 5 | 8 | 59 |
6yo+ | 1 | 3 | 44 |
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 44 runners in the past 10 runnings.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 2-16-97
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 8-14-110
Only 2 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-36
Horses rated 92 to 102: 6-18-125
Horses rated 91 or less: 4-4-44
8 of last 10 winners have all been officially rated between 90 and 101.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first two on 1 of last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season
8 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (2 exception finished 2nd in a group race)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (one exception was placed in group 3 over 1M 6F, other had not run over further than 1M 2F)
5 of 10 winners ran at Goodwood last time out
3 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran in Ireland last time out
Other Races
Summer Stakes winner (Martyr): 30136 (1-2-5)
Northumberland Plate winner (Overturn): 00410 (1-1-5)
Braveheart handicap winner (Hillview Boy): 93 (0-1-2)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Cill Rialaig): 30 (0-1-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Dangerous Midge): 80500 (0-0-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46
Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-2-8) has won the race three times in the past 10 runnings, with 6 of his 8 runners making the first 6 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-7) does particularly well with his 3yos. The five 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 17th-1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
David Elsworth (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 places from his last 4 runners in the race.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) and Jane Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have both trained the winner in the past 10 runnings.
Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-8-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-8-65
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 2-14-70
All 10 winners have been drawn in the highest or lowest 7 stalls but there is a serious bias to those drawn in the highest 7 stalls, which is where 8 of the last 10 winners came from.
Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 11/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 or 5
· Carrying 8-12 or less
· Officially rated 90 to 101
· Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
· Won a race this season
· Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
· Had last run at Goodwood or Ascot
· Run in 8 or fewer handicaps
· Won at class 3 level or higher
· Won over 1M 4F+
· Drawn in highest 7 stalls
· Trained by Luca Cumani, David Elsworth or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo
No 3 y/olds run therefore 5 yr olds hols most weight ---
Post Race
One of the most valuable handicaps of the season, it has been won by unexposed 3-y-os and seasoned handicappers or, as with last year´s winner, horses better known as hurdlers. Further Flight and Sergeant Cecil both won this before going on to win the Lonsdale Cup on this card in future years, while the legendary dual Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon took this under 10st and Jonjo O´Neill back in 1979.
This year´s contest looked typically competitive but they went a strong early gallop, the field mainly came to race towards the stands´ side and the first three finished clear.
DIRAR, better known as a hurdler, having finished third behind Overturn in the Galway Hurdle last time, was a 1m5f winner at Ayr in June. Racing off 6lb higher, he was settled off the early pace and, after switching off the stands´ rail well over 2f out, gradually weaved his way through and struck the front when back nearest the rail inside the last. The good gallop suited, and the trainer reported that the gelding could go to Dubai this winter, before being brought back next summer with the Galway Hurdle in mind
Drawn 22 (in the top 7 drawn) age 5 and (carrying 9-02 beats the trend which makes this an outstanding performance) 14/1
Rosika appeared not to get home at this trip last time but had been placed at Listed level over shorter. Despite being 11lb above her last winning mark, she ran well having been held up, only finding the winner too strong late on. Connections will be looking for more black type with her and, with her stamina now assured, the Park Hill at Doncaster looks a feasible target for her.
Bridge Of Gold is lightly raced and was having his first run since a spell in Dubai over the winter, having come back with a virus. Taking a big step up in trip, he was never far away and battled on gamely in the closing stages. He might need time to get over this, but this talented individual looks sure to win a good race before too long, and connections are considering the Canadian International.n this year therefore look to the nxt age group who most success - 5 yr olds
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