the Nunthorpe Stakes friday

YORK updated going 9am Friday Going - GOOD to Firm The Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the final day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 20th August. A group 1, run over 5 furlongs, for 2 year olds and older, it could feature the new sprinting star over this side the world, Aidan O’Brien’s Starstarspangledbanner.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (1999 to 2009):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
2yo	1	1	3
3yo	3	2	29
4yo	2	9	38
5yo	2	1	20
6yo+	2	7	48

No strong trends on the ages with the winners being spread out fairly evenly.

2 year olds receive a hefty allowance in this and Kingsgate Native (in 2007) became the second 2yo to win the race in the last 20 years, following in Lyric Fantasy’s footsteps. Radiohead was the other 2yo runner since 1999 to make the frame (3rd last year), both were colts who had finished in the first 2 over 5F at Royal Ascot.

3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as a 2yo (3rd & 4th Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park)

Gender

Filles/mares (1-2-27) have gained just 1 win and 2 places from just under 20% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in King George Stakes at Goodwood on previous start)

8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, other two had yet to run in higher than group 3)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group race

7 of 10 winners had won over 6F (2 of 3 exceptions had not run over further than 5F, other was placed on 2 of 3 runs over 6F)

Other Races

Previous season’s winner (Bordlescott): 728031 (1-2-6) (incl. 08)

July Cup winner (Starspangledbanner): 1141 (3-0-4)

Temple Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): P510180 (2-0-7)

Kings Stand winner (Equiano): 1529 (1-1-4)

Palace House Stakes winner (Equiano): F31705 (1-1-6)

Golden Jubilee Stakes winner (Starspangledbanner): 9200 (0-1-4)

King George Stakes winner (Bordlescott): 2006 (0-1-4)

Duke Of York Stakes winner (Prime Defender): 777 (0-0-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 13270

4 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 1110

3 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 143

3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 64

2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63

2 of 2 Aidan O'Brien winners ran in the Jersey Stakes, finishing 41

Trainers

British-trained runners: 7-16-123

Irish-trained runners: 2-2-6 (O'Brien 2-1-4)

French-trained runners: 1-2-7

Other: 0-0-2

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-4) has gained 2 wins and a place from his 4 runners in the race.

Robin Bastiman (1-0-1) has saddled Bordlescott to win the rearranged race at Newbury in 2008 and last year’s race back at York.

Dandy Nicholls (1-1-14), John Best (1-0-1), Eric Alston (1-0-2), Henry Candy (1-0-3) and Barry Hills (1-0-7) have each trained the winner once since 1999.

Kevin Ryan (0-3-8) and Brian Meehan (0-2-3) have each saddled multiple placed finishers in the past 10 runnings.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 4: 5-6-40

Horses drawn 5 to 8: 2-3-40

Horses drawn 9 to 12: 0-7-34

Horses drawn 13 or higher: 3-4-24

A low draw is preferable with 5 of last 10 winners coming from 4 or below.

8 of 10 winners were drawn in the top or bottom 4 stalls.

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

There have not been many shocks in this race since 1999 with 8 of last 10 winners going off at single-figure odds and 16/1 being the longest priced winner.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.39.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Won a race this season

· Finished in the first 3 last time out

· Won a group 1 or 2 sprint

· Won over 6F

· Ran in King’s Stand, July Cup, Palace House and/or Temple Stakes

· Drawn top or bottom 4 stalls

· From first 4 in the betting

Borderless Scott won this last year and comes into this race in better form than last year from its run at goodwood even at the age of 8 is a force to be reckoned with

Am interested in the 2year old Stone Of Folca from the John Best yard as the place animal in this race is a solid each way animal that ran a cracker at Goodwood last time faded into fourth after being committed too soon in the Norfolk last time, so a patient ride was an absolute must this time, but he didn´t help himself by resenting such tactics early, pulling hard. He soon managed to get a lead off Avonmore Star, and travelled powerfully, but the impression was that he would have preferred more cover, off an even stronger pace, and after being committed over 1f out, he was picked off near the line by a rival who had raced in his slipstream. The runner-up was on trial for the Nunthorpe, a race Kingsgate Native won for John Best and Jimmy Quinn as a juvenile in 2007, following a second placing in this race, and this colt showed more than enough to be of interest for that Group 1 contest.

has a decent draw in 12 and the current 14/1 is tempting each way selection

Rose Blossom has a horrible draw but can gain a place - visored first time this 3 yr old has cdg credentials and last time recorded a really good speed almost matching Star Spangled Banner over 6flngs g/frm - A Group 3 for fillies and mares. all-the-way winner of a Class 2 5f fillies´ race here in May, repeated the dose in this better event over 6f. Given an uncontested lead, she saw out the extra furlong in game fashion. The Nunthorpe isunder consideration, but she is unlikely to be able to dominate in Group 1 company.

The previous winner Kingsgate Native and a great draw out of the 1 box has not shown his old form this year but has recorded great average speeds and the Fallon factor

hard to look past the speed machine Star Spangled Banner has all the cards for this top VDw by miles top speed well drawn - the drop to 5flngs should not beat him as he has loads of early pace and is the best profile runner today the race is sponsored by Coolmore and they wont want the prize to go elsewhere

good luck today - hope this has been a great week for you

Bobt

after Race what a race that was first three home were 3 yr olds and the winner had no form to consider apart from its latest run was most recent at 14 dsr --usually ridden by Pat Smullen for Prendagast was not in this league on form and the race ws a bit of shambles really but take nothing away from the second StarSpangledBanner did not jump and had a lot to do from behind -- will stay over 6flngs this beast