Well am going to bet on Martins selection but he found it first so gentleman's agreement makes me look elsewhere for my nap and there are a couple of animals in the right price range that interest me - one is Harrington's Dreamy Gent in the 4.25 Galway he seems to be an expert from the front in Galway. Has the hall marks of a horse that is ready to win at a big price under a decent jock - will have to front run so the writing will be on the wall as he does lack finish. He just sneaks into radar at the current 16/1 but with this stable is likely to be much shorter if they agree its ready to win its first over fences
looks like my long shot to me
Sunday, 31 July 2011
SERIOUS!!!
No kidding, put your last penny on Unknown Rebel 5.10 Chester
Edit: I hope you listened to me!!
Edit: I hope you listened to me!!
Saturday, 30 July 2011
Late on Parade
Sorry Chaps......life intervened.......for what its worth I had in the Scoop6.....
1. Mymumsaysimthebest
2. Majestic deream
3. Captain John Nixon
4. Piranah
5. Snow Fairy / Midday
6. Hoof It
So pretty poor this week........not really had a chance to look at form.....
John
Doing a Bob! lol
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scoop 6 30th july with selections
Scoop6 Race 1 : 2.05 Goodwood -- My Mumsaysimthebest (11) Scoop6 Race 2 : 2.20 Newmarket -- majestic Dream (3) Scoop6 Race 3 : 2.35 Goodwood ----Harlstone Times (4) Scoop6 Race 4 : 2.50 Newmarket --- Ballyea (5) Scoop6 Race 5 : 3.10 Goodwood Barefoot lady(6) / Crystal Capella (1) Scoop6 Race 6 : 3.45 Goodwood BONUS RACE Kanaf (23) / Victoir De Lyphar (10) (Please mention scoop6.co.uk if re-posting these details)
Leg Selection 1 11 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 1, 6 6 10, 23 4 line(s) at £ each Total Stake for Bet: £8.00
Nassau Stakes 3.10
Not much to go on from the ages of winners. 3yo have won 6 of the last 10 but have represented 53% of the total runners.But today there is only one 3 yr old Barefoot lady(was a very very creditable 5th to Blue Bunting) she comprehensibly beat Misty for Me in that contest! and you have to say the 3 yr old's are showing really good form this year and could well be ahead of their older rivals and has an eight Pounds pull in the weights
All 4 winners aged 4+ were multiple group 1 winners.
Recent Form
9 of 10 winners had won 1 of last 2 starts (exception placed in Eng/Ir Oaks on last 2 starts)
7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won a group race over 1M to 1M 2F (exception placed in English & Irish Oaks on last 2 starts)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception had finished 2nd in a group 1 and other two were group 2 or 3 winners)
Am taking a chance on the 3 yr old based Barefoot Lady on its defeat of Misty For Me who went on to win the irish 1000 gns she looks Taylor maid (sic) for this 1m2f was a very useful juvenile but stepped up on that form when winning the Nell Gwyn over 7f Up again in trip and grade she ran well, chasing the leadersthroughout and, despite being pushed along some way out, kept on when others cried enough.In touch, ridden and unable to quicken 3f out, outpaced over 2f out, rallied under pressure and edging right over 1f out, no chance but stayed on steadily final furlong (tchd 14-1) She Ran a cracker in the Musidora and has the form for a big upset at a big prices against animals that are more suited by 1m4f Misty for Me would have been the favourite for this race to make me feel even more confident
good luck today guys
Steward's Cup 3.45
The last 9 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-12-104
Weight
Horses carrying 9-4 or more: 2-6-64
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-3: 7-16-146
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-8-67
7 of 10 winners (last 4) carried between 8-9 and 9-3, from approximately 53% of the total runners
Horses carrying a penalty: 2-4-42 (Hoof it - Secret Asset - Kanaf)
Top weight: 0080056030 (0-1-11)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in past 25 days (2 exceptions ran in past 60 days)
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season
8 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 22 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 20K or more
9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher
Previous year's winner (Evens And Odds): 20 (0-1-2)
Ritz Club Handicap winner (Medicean Man): 10 (1-0-2)
Sportingbet.com Stakes handicap winner (Hoof It): 160 (1-0-3)
Investec Specialist Bank H'cap winner (Swiss Cross): 000105 (1-0-6)
Al Rayan Handicap winner (Pastoral Player): 22572 (0-3-5)
Newcastle totescoop6 H'cap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 3792 (0-2-4)
Bond Tyres Stakes winner (Lexi's Hero): 4 (0-1-1)
Hampshire Society Stakes winner (Crown Choice): 30 (0-1-2)
Skybet Dash winner: 03 (0-1-2)
Scottish Stewards Cup winner (Quest For Success): 0036 (0-1-4)
Ayr Silver Cup winner (Colonel Mak): 500 (0-0-3)
Gosford Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 0500 (0-0-4)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 8547000
Draw (data updated for new stall ordering)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 2-13-90
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 7-9-100
Horses drawn 20 or higher: 1-8-87
7 of 10 winners (last 6) were drawn 10 to 19
The only horse to win this from stall 20 or higher was Pivotal Point, who won a group 3 and a group 2 in his next 3 races.
No very strong trends on prices as while 7 of 10 winners came from first 5 in the betting, the last 3 winners were priced 40/1, 14/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-5-15) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.36 over the past 10 years.
Well its a nightmare of a race and as thrilling as you will get for your money - I have a fancy that Kanaf is the great each way shout out of stall 20 has a 6lbs excess to carry today under Chris Catlin for Dunlop - His run at Ascot in a class 3 6flngs sprint was electric The stands´ rail did not look particularly advantageous, yet all 15 runners congregated towards the near side of the track, before fanning out towards the middle late on. This looked a good, quite competitive sprint handicap, but KANAF was much the best and evidently ahead of his mark. He was a major eyecatcher under a tender ride when well behind on his comeback at Goodwood over an inadequate 5flngs, and again wasn´t given a particularly hard time when going a lot closer at Yarmouth , but he stepped up on those efforts to confirm the promise of his 3-y-o campaign. The return to this course over the 6flngs out of a decent draw and the excellent form of Dunlop yard and surface probably can give the more fancied runners a fright and the current 25s is being steadily taken.
Love to hear what you think
Love to hear what you think
Scoop 6 - let's try and win it!
| HORSE | HORSE | |
| LEG 1 | Thunderball | Five Star Junior |
| LEG 2 | Lay Time | Majestic Dream |
| LEG 3 | Verdant | |
| LEG 4 | Pirannha | |
| LEG 5 | Midday | |
| LEG 6 | Hoof It |
Friday, 29 July 2011
wipe out day yesterday at Goodwood Friday hopefuls!
Was full of confidence yesterday all to no avail as it turned out and fingers burnt big time for me
Its not just me either the track has some Peculiarities that's for sure but form is almost ignored this year and winners have been hard to find for me and looking at the results most other punters as well.
Decent races today so am hoping for better things but drawing my horns in never the less.
in the opener I like the chances of Jukebox Jury a lot its a smashing horse that will give its running likes the track has the speed and likes the track going and distance drawn 1 is a disadvantage but he scorched home last time and that has to have him right for this.
2.35 has some difficult types to weigh up over this mile will take my chances with Questioning who has pace and dropping back in distance is favoured over a quite motley crew
3.10 and a decent race - have been told to watch the betting on Dettori mount Man Of Action currently 40/1 its a nutter that has already been gelded since joining the yard but reports are its calmed down and stopped trying to mount all and sundry gets excited in the Visor but they are using it for the second time (as much to stop it tuning its head for a snack out of other runners) have looked at the stats for the race and found that its draw is all wrong in 20 ( 9 of 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 6 stalls) 9 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Only one winner has gone off bigger than 12/1 in past 10 years. against those odds it seems forlorn but have taken some place odds on betfair and hoping to trade out if the money comes because of one more nugget - Saeed Bin Suroor’s (1-1-2) two runners in past 10 years have finished 1st and 2nd.
here are the stats - Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Carrying a penalty Green Destiny - Namecheck
· Officially rated 100 or higher Green Destiny Riggins Cai Shen The Rectifier Dance and Dance
· Finished in first 5 in a class 3 or higher in the last 30 days
· Won over 1M or 1M 1F
· Run in 12 or fewer handicaps
· Won or placed in a race worth 18K+
· Won a class 2 or higher
· Contested a listed or group race
· Trained by Roger Charlton or Saeed Bin Suroor
· Drawn 1 to 6
· Tends to race prominently
· From first 5 in the betting
To Be Honest this is too hot to go anywhere but down - the Prob fav Green Destiny has all the stats bar one Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.00 over the past 10 years.- so its an each way bet for me with Namecheck and the aforementioned Man of Destiny
3.45 another nightmare to sort out because of tjhe ground though Hannon Yard insist the huge Harbour Watch will handle the g/frm ground he says "He is one of the best that we have got" (and they have won the last three of this race) if hes right then its a done deal
but finding one to follow him home leads me to Milshakes ride on Saigon - a half-brother to multiple sprint winner Tabaret, had beaten an odds-on shot on his debut on fast ground. He raced on the outside of his field here and came through with the runner-up, then managed to overcome interference from that rival to edge ahead near the finish. He still looked inexperienced and may have more to offer.
Good luck Guys
have a great days punting
Bob
Want to make some money?
Do you fancy making a few bob today? If so, back these two - singles and a double!
FREE advice people!
3.20 Bangor Art Broker
3.55 Bangor Ballabrook
I'm charging after these lol
Edit: I must be mad, but here's a third for a nice patent
7.40 Muss Excelette
FREE advice people!
3.20 Bangor Art Broker
3.55 Bangor Ballabrook
I'm charging after these lol
Edit: I must be mad, but here's a third for a nice patent
7.40 Muss Excelette
Thursday, 28 July 2011
My four bets today
 14:15 | 2:15 Goodwood | 50 Win | Chain Lightning | 8.5 |  |
"by far the best horse in the race for me - ran well in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, this longer trip is what he wants. He did well to chase home Oceanway at Sandown last time, and the handicapper reckoned it was a career best as he put him up 4lb to 95. He is well drawn in four and should be right there at the finish." | |||||
| 14:45 | 2:45 Goodwood | 50 Win | Amour Propre | 6.5 | |
"ran a blinder after layoff last time making his belated seasonal bow with plenty to prove, and he turned in a blinder. He quickened to throw down a strong challenge and was only just denied. It�s hoped he can build on this. This is the candy yard best chance of collecting today" | |||||
| 15:15 | 3:15 Goodwood | 50 Win NAP | Chiberta King | 13 | |
"this horse has been a revelation this year this grade and trip Looking for a horse who has won over the distance aged 6 or 7 who has had a decent run in the Ascot Gold Cup or Sandown last run. Previous winners at Goodwood are a plus. and this one fits the bill to tee" | |||||
| 16:50 | 4:50 Galway | 50 Win NB | Dirar | 8.5 |  |
" Bahrain Storm:Is a non runner the conditions in Ireland make an automatic rise 4lb There fore with the automatic weight rise to horses in the handicap proper Have adjusted the Vfb to reflect the changed weights Dirar for Gordon Elliot looks the one to be on for this as its been his long range target since last year - good dual purpose horse who ran his heart out and used up all his energy against Overturn last year having lost his place early he had too much to do - Will Win today for my money " | |||||
Good luck ALLllllllllll
Galway Hurdle 4.50 280711
The Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight today at the Galway Festival A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive but it has been a good race for punters recently with 4 of the last 5 winners being very well backed.
going Good to Yielding
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-14
5yo: 3-8-49
6yo: 4-8-59
7yo: 1-9-46
8yo: 1-4-24
9yo: 1-0-8
10yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 5 or 6: 7-16-108
All other ages: 3-14-100
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 6-5-64
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-25-144
Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 6 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing approximately 31% of the total runner. They have also accounted for 4 of the last 5 winners.
Top Weight: 030066P002 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-3-31
Horses rated 120 to 130: 7-18-124
Horses rated 119 or less: 1-9-53
7 of 10 winners were rated between 120 and 130, though they represented almost 60% of the total runners, so that is hardly a strong trend.
In recent years it has swung towards higher rated runners, with 3 of the last 4 winners being officially rated 130 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts (exception was runner-up in previous year's Galway Hurdle on last hurdles start)
8 of 10 winners won or placed on their last hurdles start
10 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR on one of last two starts
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 7 to 13K (but no higher)
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
5 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): PF02 (0-1-4) Note that Dirar trained by Elliot ran a cracker into third last year
Wellingtonbridge Novice Hurdle winner (Redera): 1 (1-0-1)
Ladbrokes H’cap Hurdle winner (Princeton Plains): 0040304 (0-3-7)
Grimes Hurdle winner (Captain Cee Bee): 662 (0-1-3)
London Southend Airport EBF Handicap winner (Silk Hall): 06 (0-0-2)
Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov Hurdle winner (Oilily): 00 (0-0-2)
HotelMeyrick Novice Hurdle winner (Force Of Habit): 07 (0-0-2)
Gerry Igoe Land Drainage H’cap Hurdle winner (Redera): 05F (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Three.ie handicap hurdle, finishing 413
3 of 10 winners ran in the UAE Handicap at Curragh, finishing 436
2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ulster Derby, finishing 52
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 20
5 of 10 winners had run in a flat or NH race at previous Festival
Trainers
Pat Flynn (1-1-2) has saddled Bahrain Storm to finish 1st and 2nd in the past 2 years.
Dermot Weld (1-1-13) and Noel Meade (1-1-18) have also both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Donald McCain (1-0-1) and John Kiely (1-0-2) have both trained the winner once in past 3 years.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners in the past 10 years include Thomond O’Mara (0-2-3), Jessica Harrington (0-2-5), Dessie Hughes (0-2-5), Willie Mullins (0-2-5), Tony Martin (0-2-5) and Eddie O’Grady (0-2-6).
British based trainers (1-1-11) have gained 1 win and 1 place from their 11 runners.
Price
6 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) were priced 7/1 or shorter & came from the first 3 in the betting. However there have been some big upsets in this race too, with other 4 winners going off at 16/1, 14/1, 33/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won the race twice in the past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 or 6
· Carrying 10-7+
· Horses carrying a penalty do well
· Horses officially rated 130 or higher have done well recently
· Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts
· Won or placed on last hurdles start
· Run in past 55 days
· Had previous run on flat (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)
· Previously run in no more than 15 hurdles (winning 2 to 4)
· Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
· Ran at last year's Galway Festival
Note ----Long Handicap: Street Entertainer 9-9, Total Excitement 9-7, Inspector Clouseau 9-6, Cothrom Na Feinne 9-4, Eagle's Pass 9-4 There fore with the automatic weight rise .to horses in the handicap proper
Bahrain Storm:Is a non runner the conditions in Ireland make an automatic rise 4lb (Captain Cee Bee 11st 6lb) instead of the 11-02 in the papers - be warned
Have adjusted the Vfb to reflect the changed weights Dirar for Gordon Elliot looks the one to be on for this as its been his long range target since last year - good dual purpose horse who ran his heart out and used up all his energy against Overturn last year having lost his place early he had too much to do - Will Win today for my money
2miles Goodwood 3.15 Thursday 28th July
The ground is forecast to remain good for this marathon 2nd in prize money only to the Galway Grade 1 hurdle
Looking for a horse who has won over the distance aged 6 or 7 who has had a decent run in the Ascot Gold Cup or Sandown last run. Previous winners at Goodwood are a plus.
Favourites have a good strike rate and they have come from the Ascot Gold Cup winners and Opinion Poll chased home fame and Fortune into second this year.
5 favourites have won in the last five years coming from this form analysis and the current 6.4 betfair is very tempting and will get my pennies –
Chiberta King is in the form of its life and having won round here and the 2miles at Sandown last makes it a contender for me at the current odd of 14/1 and would not put you off a punt on either Aaim to Prosper or Electrolyser on the same form lines
good luck today - Goodwood is a nightmare too many good animals funny old track and punting mad prices
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