Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Forming your own betting forecast.... Part 1

The two most important factors in making a profit from gambling, are:
  1. Discipline
  2. Value
It's pretty easy after that (nearly lol). Discipline cannot be taught - you have to keep accounts of all bets. Now, value is a matter of opinion (as is tipping). Most people don't have a clue what is value and what isn't. So, I am going to try and help you! (What a star I am).

"Oddsline", "morning line", "tissue". These are all terms used to describe a betting forecast. Every newspaper racecard will have one and bookies will create their own or use the Racing Post as a guide.

If you create your own betting forecast you can see which horses are in tune with the market and which are not. If you can identify a 5-1 horse that is showing 10-1 in the market you have found a value bet, or an overlay. If you can identify a 3-1 horse that is showing 13-8 in the market you have found a bad value bet that should be opposed.

Creating your own betting forecast is easy. All you have to do is use some kind of numeric rating to rate the chance of each horse in a race. Using these figures you can convert the chances into true probabilities, and as probabilities is a function of odds, you can convert the probabilities to odds.

How to Create a Basic Betting Forecast - remember, this is a simple forecast, and doesn't include dactors like jockey, trainer, draw etc etc

  • Assign a numeric rating for each horse in the race
  • Total up all the ratings
  • Divide each rating by the total to obtain a probability
  • Convert each probability into odds
In Part 2, I will be posting a probability chart. Impressed eh? lol

Martin
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