The Betfair Summer Double First Leg International 3.50

The Betfair Summer Double First Leg International is a 7F class 2 handicap  3.50 Ascot 

  Trends point towards 4 or 5yo who is still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

3yo: 1-5-33

4yo: 7-9-92

5yo: 2-9-55

6yo+: 0-7-57

9 of 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5

Horses aged 6+ have a poor record, failing to win this race in past 10 years despite accounting for over 24% of the total runners.

Weight

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-5-10

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-8-47

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-73

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 4-9-107

Top Weight: 430032008103 (1-5-12)

Half the horses allotted to carry top weight have made the places.

Horses carrying a penalty: 0941009040050095410204 (2-5-22)

Horses carrying a penalty at 12/1 or lower: 4104050954124 (2-5-13)

7 of the 13 penalised runners that were sent off 12/1 or shorter made the places (with a further two finishing 5th)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or higher: 4-14-79

Horses rated 93 to 99: 5-12-89

Horses rated 92 or lower: 1-4-71

9 of 10 winners have been officially rated 93 or higher

In past 3 years 11 of 12 places filled by horses rated 96+.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won or placed last time

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (both exceptions did so on second or third last start)

10 of 10 winners ran in past 40 days

9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 race last time (exception won a class 3)

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions placed in a race worth 40K+ that season)

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times on turf that year

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F (1 exception was beaten a short head in Bunbury Cup on previous start & other gained only win in 6F group 3)

8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (both exceptions had won a class 3 and finished 2nd in a class 2 Ascot handicap)

10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+

10 of 10 winners contested a class 2 h’cap worth 30K+ that season

Big Field Form

6 of 10 winners had won a race with 16+ runners

The 4 exceptions had all finished in first 5 in 28 or 29 runner handicap at Royal Ascot. Clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has proven it can run well in a competitive big-field handicap.

Other Races

Last season's winner (Castles In The Air): 306008 (0-1-6)

Bunbury Cup winner (Brae Hill): 19004 (1-1-5)

Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Manassas): 78237 (0-2-5)

Bet365 Handicap winner (Kingscroft): 000 (0-0-3)

Victoria Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 0000 (0-0-4)

Newcastle Totesport Handicap winner (Imperial Djay): 0060 (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the Buckingham Palace, finishing 0520

3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 410

3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 9U0

3 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup last time, finishing 120

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Challenge Cup, finishing 08

9 of 10 winners contested a handicap at that season's Royal Ascot(4 Buckingham Palace, 3 Royal Hunt Cup, 1 Brittania, 1 Wokingham)

Trainers

Mark Johnston (1-1-13), Richard Fahey (1-0-1, who won the race last year) and George Margarson (1-0-5) are the only 3 trainers with entries to have won the race since 2001.

Kevin Ryan (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the places.

David Simcock (0-1-3) saddled the 2nd and 5th in 2010.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newbury)

Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-6-90

Horses drawn in middle: 2-6-33

Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 4-20-90

There is a slight preference towards horses drawn high but nothing too significant.

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off between 7/1 and 14/1

Favourites (0-3-13) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 3 of the 13 (joint) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)

·         Carrying a penalty

·         Officially rated 93 or higher

·         Had 3 to 5 turf starts in 2011

·         Ran in past 40 days

·         Posted highest RPR last time out

·         Won a race this season

·         Won over 7F

·         Won at class 2 level or higher

·         Won or placed in a handicap with 16+ runners

·         Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace)

·         Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season

Have to side with Excellent Guest on its running in the Buckingham palace where he was second to Manaasas in soft ground and ran at  least 4lbs above today's mark was drawn a handy 28 that day and today drawn 3 is not that good for sure -will handle any ground Phillip Robinson gets on so well with him - appreciates being covered up and ridden with  patience. He´s clearly still improving. He ran well in both buckingham and Bunbury Cup(he comfortably won from the group that raced down the ´wrong´ side, even though he was repeatedly stopped in his run.