Irish oaks 170711

Well Guys had a truly horrible day yesterday and have to get some back today - looking at the Irish oaks ground forecast to be yielding at the Currugh does not inspire confidence in the going report at this time and will be given plenty of time for changes as the race is off at 3.45

The last 2 renewals have gone to British-trained runners and there looks to be a strong raiding party coming over again this year, headed by the Epsom Oaks winner, Dancing Rain, who has been supplemented.

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (7 won)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (1 exception was 2nd in Epsom Oaks)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days

6 of 10 winners (last 5) finished in first 2 in a group 1 (4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Epsom Oaks winner (Dancing Rain): 11211 (4-1-5)

Record of horses placed in the Oaks: 0244033151349 (2-3-13)

Cheshire Oaks winner (Wonder Of Wonders): 2 (0-1-1)

Noblesse Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86424 (0-1-5)

Ribblesdale Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86240 (0-1-5)

Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes winner (Banimpre): P4 (0-0-2)

Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpre): 347606 (0-0-6)

6 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 112211

3 of 10 (3 of last 5) ran in the Musidora, finishing 241

2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly last time, finishing 41

Trainers

Irish trained runners: 5-8-79 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 2-1-48)

British trained runners: 4-9-31

Aidan O’Brien (3-7-31) has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-3-10. (3 runners today)

Jim Bolger (1-0-8) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this in the last 10 years.(Banipire)

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 3 in the betting & priced 5/1 or below.

Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.90 over past 10 years.

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days

· Won over at least 1M 2F

· Finished in first 2 in Epsom Oaks

· Finished in first 4 in the Musidora

· Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first run in G1)

· Trained by in France or GB or by Aidan O’Brien

· From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1

Top two improver's are Wonder of Wonders and Dancing Rain (first two in betting) finished first and second in the Epsom derby -- Blue Bunting (3rd favvy) finishing 5l behind none have run since making this their natural target.

Banipire at 9/1 scorched home at Ascot having got impeded has only the 4th spot as improver being half of what the others have achieved has been a progressive performer since upped in trip, and her only defeat in her previous five starts was when a close fifth dropped back to 1m in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She had shown before she handled soft ground and, after being hampered early when held up, followed the favourite through and went in pursuit of the leader when that one kicked over 2f out. She managed to get her head in front entering the last half-furlong but then had to dig deep to hold on as the runner-up rallied. She is a really tough sort as this was her fifth win of the season from seven starts, the latest being just four days previously. Her rider picked up a two-day ban for his use of the whip. 

Blue Bunting has won the most prize money by a long way its run in the Epsom oaks could have been closer but watch the race was heavily eased had done nothing but improve before finishing strongly to take the 1,000 Guineas on her reappearance. She was stepping up in trip, but her dam was a stayer and her half-brother has won over 2m2f. The filly lost a good early pitch at the top of the hill she was eighth. He was riding her turning into the straight, but then pushed his way out, and could make no impression on the first two. Dettori then dropped his hands after passing Izzi Top in the closing stages and lost third place on the line, which cost him a ten-day ban. He said afterwards that the track and the pace did not suit his filly. 

Can we take on the Obrien Runners? Well the favourite Wonder Of Wonders looked a bit of a non stayer at Epsom on good ground - showed little on g/soft at leopardstown g/soft can she run a finish in yeilding ground ? -- ummm out of King Mambo she is underpriced for me And Dancing Rain can beat her again showing a ready turn of foot at Epsom in the final furlong giving her at least a 1lb in hand of the favvy

Am also happy to take the reverse forecast Dancing Rain and Blue Bunting - with a watching brief on the ground for Banimpire who is the darkun for a combination bet

good luck all


Result yippeee ----- 1 Blue Bunting 5/2

2 Banimpire 8/1
3 Wonder Of Wonders 5/4 Fav

9 ran

CSF: £23.26

 Bob